Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

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philnyc
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Re:

#1181 Postby philnyc » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:38 am

TheEuropean wrote:Has somebody a link to a Hi-Res satellite image of "Felix" that may be used in TV? May be 1-2 MB as .jpg?

Here in Germany "Felix" is now a big story on many stations.

Thx, The European


It's difficult right now to get a 1-2MB hi-res shot because it's night time here. I really like the NOAA stuff from here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

(just scroll down to Felix)

Alternatively,

You can also scroll back through these pages on this site here to see some pretty incredible images during this past afternoon - look for posts around from 1PM to 4PM and you will see some great stuff. As long as it doesn't say "accuweather", you can use it.

Viel Gluck. (Can't type umlaut here) :)
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 11 PM pag 56

#1182 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:56 am

Landfall in Honduras on the 5am track, this will be a catastrophe.

Image
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#1183 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:00 am

The latest models have made a big jog to the south; Felix may only be about 24-36 hr away from its final landfall when people wake up. Likewise, now there is much less time for any ERC to complete itself, so I suspect Felix has peaked in beauty. Not that it really matterns now since some people in Nicaragua are going to be very surprised when they wake up...

At this time, the good news is that Felix is small, but it will rapidly enlarge when the ERC occurs. This doesn't look like a catastrophe on the level of Fifi/Mitch, but could be very deadly nonetheless with hundreds killed. Yikes.
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Re: Re:

#1184 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:02 am

philnyc wrote:It's difficult right now to get a 1-2MB hi-res shot because it's night time here. I really like the NOAA stuff from here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

(just scroll down to Felix)

Alternatively,

You can also scroll back through these pages on this site here to see some pretty incredible images during this past afternoon - look for posts around from 1PM to 4PM and you will see some great stuff. As long as it doesn't say "accuweather", you can use it.

Viel Gluck. (Can't type umlaut here) :)


Many Thx :-)
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Re:

#1185 Postby Coredesat » Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:20 am

TheEuropean wrote:Has somebody a link to a Hi-Res satellite image of "Felix" that may be used in TV? May be 1-2 MB as .jpg?

Here in Germany "Felix" is now a big story on many stations.

Thx, The European


Here's the NRL geostationary infrared satellite image archive for Felix:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... IX/ir/geo/

The images are only 1024x1024, but that's all the IR images taken of Felix since it formed. 500m MODIS images are much larger.

There's also a VIS archive here: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... FELIX/vis/ (geo is geostationary, modis is MODIS Aqua/Terra hi-res, but may not have 100% of the system depicted; the other two don't matter)
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 11 PM pag 56

#1186 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:40 am

Thx, this musst be good enough for the moment :-)
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#1187 Postby WmE » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:05 am

Wow, when i turned off the computer yesterday this was a Cat3. When I watched CNN later this was a Cat4 and now it's a Cat 5, and predicted to become even stronger. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

WOW. However cloud tops are warming quite a bit over the last hours.
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Re:

#1188 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:10 am

WmE wrote:Wow, when i turned off the computer yesterday this was a Cat3. When I watched CNN later this was a Cat4 and now it's a Cat 5, and predicted to become even stronger. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

WOW. However cloud tops are warming quite a bit over the last hours.


But did you see SHIPS with 170 kts at 24h? I expect another explosive intensification period when Felix cross the next warm blob.
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#1189 Postby WmE » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:13 am

Yeah, sounds reasonable, however it looks like Felix will go through an ERC quite soon, with such a small eye.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 11 PM pag 56

#1190 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:13 am

That eye is really getting small, it would not suprize me if it got down to 3-4 miles then felix had a ewrc. Fellowed by it hitting the next eddie. I think it could rise back into the 940s while its is having its ewrc...Then fall into the 910s or so after.
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Re: Re:

#1191 Postby philnyc » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:15 am

TheEuropean wrote:
WmE wrote:Wow, when i turned off the computer yesterday this was a Cat3. When I watched CNN later this was a Cat4 and now it's a Cat 5, and predicted to become even stronger. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

WOW. However cloud tops are warming quite a bit over the last hours.


But did you see SHIPS with 170 kts at 24h? I expect another explosive intensification period when Felix cross the next warm blob.


Indeed it should have one more burst, but it will be complicated by the EWRC...
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#1192 Postby PhillyWX » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:23 am

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ay-am.html

Updated imagery of Hurricane Felix from CNN and TWC.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 AM pag 60

#1193 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:34 am

Looks like a landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border then westward across Honduras into Guatemala where Felix will become a remnant low. Doesn't look like it's going to make the BoC. Score another one for the ECMWF.
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#1194 Postby HollynLA » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:36 am

yes, wxman57, I really hate to see this region get such a monster of a storm as it will be catastrophic. I hope it will atleast move through quickly and keep a smaller windfield.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 AM pag 60

#1195 Postby PhillyWX » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:44 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border then westward across Honduras into Guatemala where Felix will become a remnant low. Doesn't look like it's going to make the BoC. Score another one for the ECMWF.


It sure has been on a roll this year.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 AM pag 60

#1196 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:51 am

PhillyWX wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border then westward across Honduras into Guatemala where Felix will become a remnant low. Doesn't look like it's going to make the BoC. Score another one for the ECMWF.


It sure has been on a roll this year.


Yeah, but I've found it tends to be a tad high on the predicted central pressure. Just knock about 100mb off what the ECMWF predicts and you'll be close. ;-)
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#1197 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:56 am

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 AM pag 60

#1198 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:58 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border then westward across Honduras into Guatemala where Felix will become a remnant low. Doesn't look like it's going to make the BoC. Score another one for the ECMWF.


I agree with this scenerio. The UKMET and NOGAPS still try to take this storm in the BOC, but it looks it moving too fast and too far south to escape into any weakness in the ridge that will be caused by the trof approaching Texas later in the week.
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#1199 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:00 am

Latest:
Image
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Re:

#1200 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:03 am

HURAKAN wrote:Latest:
Image

Wow...at first I didnt think the structural organization was very good for a cat5, but nvm...that still looks good
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