TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is at buoy near 11 north/39 west showing northeast winds. Also satellite appears to show the LLC on the southeast side of the convection near 10.2 north/37.5 or so. The system is pretty organized.

[cycloneye]

If this would be around 14n-40w,then I say fish all written.However being around 10n not.

[alan1961]

its going to have to get its act together in the next 2 or 3 days or it will end up being a ragged mess if it tries to enter the eastern caribbean..that blob which as been over the islands is being forced north for some reason..is that a trough currently in the eastern caribbean?

[gatorcane]

its going to have to get its act together in the next 2 or 3 days or it will end up being a ragged mess if it tries to enter the eastern caribbean..that blob which as been over the islands is being forced north for some reason..is that a trough currently in the eastern caribbean?

There is no explanation why the blob in the Leewards is pushing north.

I can't figure that out...

unless the well-defined MLC from yesterday is sucking it in and trying to wrap this blob into it...

But to me the old MLC had fizzled today...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Possibly feelling the weakness the trough is causing. But that "invest" is to far north any ways.

[vacanechaser]

its going to have to get its act together in the next 2 or 3 days or it will end up being a ragged mess if it tries to enter the eastern caribbean..that blob which as been over the islands is being forced north for some reason..is that a trough currently in the eastern caribbean?

you can see in the upper air chart that there is a trough near by... is it turning into a weakness??? good question... the flow appears to be from the southeast in the area of the islands too...





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Cyclenall]

What percentage would you give 91L of becoming a depression by 11pm ET tomorrow?

I'd pick 50% chance for that to happen.

[ROCK]

18Z CIMSS steering flow for your enjoyment....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters...

A large extratropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. is expected to pull 91L on a more northwesterly track by mid-week. This would put 91L in a position to threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

[canegrl04]

Jeff Masters...

A large extratropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. is expected to pull 91L on a more northwesterly track by mid-week. This would put 91L in a position to threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Not good for thos efolks.This will likely be hurricane Humberto by then

[PhillyWX]

gets into caribbean in 4-5 days,
and then a trough digging over the US in 5-6 days
may exert a NW pull....

Maybe....the trough really is not that pronounced on the GFS but ridging is not as strong. This COULD hit the GOM if the GFS is right.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180m.gif

The ridge is pretty strong on the EURO though and it could take a Dean/Gilbert type track.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091012!!/

[storms in NC]

If you take a look at Bertha in 1996 you can see she was on the same path

[PhillyWX]

Jeff Masters...

A large extratropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. is expected to pull 91L on a more northwesterly track by mid-week. This would put 91L in a position to threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

When I look at what Rock posted I fail to see a significant pull take place with 91L. The steering pattern looks pretty entrenched and based on a position near 10/40 I would guess Barbados has more of a threat from this than the northern islands.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

[Derek Ortt]

in roder for this to take 7 days to hit the islands, it will have to slow down to an average speed of 5KT. Highly unlikely

Also, where is the slowdown that the globals were depicting? Looks to be annon-existant as it was in Dean

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jeff Masters...

A large extratropical storm over the mid-Atlantic between Europe and the U.S. is expected to pull 91L on a more northwesterly track by mid-week. This would put 91L in a position to threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

He wrote this around 10am EDT (about 8 hours ago). I wonder if he may be has changed his tune since then?

[PhillyWX]

If you take a look at Bertha in 1996 you can see she was on the same path

The 500 mb pattern atm is nowhere near the same as during Bertha.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/071100.png

The ridge was situated near Bermuda at that point (look at the 594 dm heights on the 500 mb map on the upper left).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

I don't see how a ridge centered near FL is going to take a Bertha-like track.

Even a week from now the trough really isn't deep enough to pull Humberto/91L that far north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

[wxman57]

We've seen that the models have a strong right-bias with westward moving disturbances, probably/possibly because they tend to develop them too quickly and assume the wrong steering levels. Or because they under-forecast the ridge to the north. The ECMWF has done very well with these systems. I just checked the 12Z and, like with Dean or Felix, it doesn't show any closed low even using a 1mb analysis. However, it does show the associated inverted trof at 500mb tracking just about over the northern Caribbean islands. This would suggest a track toward the NE Caribbean (in general). But I can't tell if it enters the Caribbean, crosses, say Puerto Rico to the DR, or passes just north of the islands.

The EC also shows a significant weakness in the ridge across the Bahamas by this weekend as a fairly strong cold front reaches the east U.S. Coast. This weakness continues into early next week. This might point to an island threat over the coming weekend (quicker than the current guidance indicates) followed by a turn to the north and out to sea.

As I look at the disturbance this afternoon, I see a system that has a lot of energy but is void of deep convection. But convergence should (may) increase down the road as it slows down a little between 50-55W. Development chances? Maybe as high as 40-50%. But it's not going to be a TD tomorrow. Maybe not Wednesday, either. The key is persistent deep convection. NHC won't upgrade it without that.

Patience!

[wxman57]

in order for this to take 7 days to hit the islands, it will have to slow down to an average speed of 5KT. Highly unlikely

Also, where is the slowdown that the globals were depicting? Looks to be a non-existent as it was in Dean

See my post, Derek. EC suggests a much faster speed, probably because it has a bit stronger ridge north of 91L.

[windstorm99]

We've seen that the models have a strong right-bias with westward moving disturbances, probably/possibly because they tend to develop them too quickly and assume the wrong steering levels. Or because they under-forecast the ridge to the north. The ECMWF has done very well with these systems. I just checked the 12Z and, like with Dean or Felix, it doesn't show any closed low even using a 1mb analysis. However, it does show the associated inverted trof at 500mb tracking just about over the northern Caribbean islands. This would suggest a track toward the NE Caribbean (in general). But I can't tell if it enters the Caribbean, crosses, say Puerto Rico to the DR, or passes just north of the islands.

The EC also shows a significant weakness in the ridge across the Bahamas by this weekend as a fairly strong cold front reaches the east U.S. Coast. This weakness continues into early next week. This might point to an island threat over the coming weekend (quicker than the current guidance indicates) followed by a turn to the north and out to sea.

As I look at the disturbance this afternoon, I see a system that has a lot of energy but is void of deep convection. But convergence should (may) increase down the road as it slows down a little between 50-55W. Development chances? Maybe as high as 40-50%. But it's not going to be a TD tomorrow. Maybe not Wednesday, either. The key is persistent deep convection. NHC won't upgrade it without that.

Patience!

Any chance of this pulling an ernesto type track moving up from the caribbean?

[Derek Ortt]

I was thinking a Friday threat for the Caribbean, MAYBE Saturday

I'm, however, not sold on a NE islands threat. I could see this entering in the central Caribbean. May mean more of a Hispaniola threat and an Emily 1987 track (at least until Hispaniola landfall)