TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wzrgirl1]

definitely looking good....has that slanted look to it

[fasterdisaster]

DANG this is looking good! Can't believe it's not a TD yet! Looks like a TS even!

[Normandy]

Derek wrote:

Had to look very hard, but am able to see inflow being focused near 12N and 43W. Could have a new center start to form there. System is moving nearly due west, south of the guidance projections

As new data comes you have to adjust the models. A degree further south this far out can change everything. If a center is developing under that convection I'm going to be sick.

I'll get even sicker if this passes south of PR and turns into the GOM. I just have a feeling this is the one where somebody's luck has run out. I just don't see this one going to Central America.

Thats great for central america....of all the places touching the atlantic they are the ones that least need another hit.

System does look good right now, probably on the border as far as TD goes....Of course im assuming there is an LLC

[jaxfladude]

The "H" storm the one to give the CONUS the first "must watch this system closely" this season?

[CrazyC83]

If only there was data proving whether or not there is a closed circulation...

[windstorm99]

18z GFDL track...

[fasterdisaster]

The "H" storm the one to give the CONUS the first "must watch this system closely" this season?

That was Dean

[RL3AO]

Keep your eye on buoy 41041 for a wind shift from ENE to SE in the next few hours. That should show what type of surface circulation it has.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[CrazyC83]

Looks like maybe a repeat of his "father" in 1989?

[jaxfladude]

18z GFDL track...

Stair climber

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/5av_24.gif

The trough/weakness between the two highs. One high at 30/72 west, and the other called the Azores subtropical high pressure area. The models forecast a "trough" of low pressure to form near 35 north/38 west. This shows over the next 12 hours some weakness north of the system. At the 500-850 level after 24 hours, enough of a high pressure builds back to the north, to move the system west to northwest. If it where to become a hurricane it would turn more northward with the fact that the weakness is more defined at the level above 500 millibars.

Shear maps show that the band of eastly near 8-10 north has 12-15 knots of shear. But above it the area has no more then 5 knots. So favorable upper levels are in place for our "cyclone". So as long as it stays above the eastly to its south, and the northly from the trough to the north of 15 north. This system should have very favorable upper levels to strengthen with. As it moves westward the sst's and tchp should increase under our system...So more moisture at the mid to upper levels to hold convection near core of the system.

[Normandy]

If only there was data proving whether or not there is a closed circulation...

Just looking at satellite I'd ASSUME there is one.... Looking at IR2 I can see cloud motions around the convection indicating that faintly indicate there might be something under or near that convection. If there is one there though its very weak.

[canegrl04]

Isn't it a general rule that a system that tracks east of the Islands is bound for Florida or the GOM?

[Praxus]

What a change from early this morning - she's looking great now.

[jdjaguar]

From what I can tell, the center has relocated directly under the convection and we have a TD if not a TS already.

(not sure why my earlier reply of agreement to canegirl's post was deleted.)

NHC may pronounce at 8AM TD....11AM TS ...but its there now imo.

and jax dude..is this "our" year? lets hope not..its been 43 years since Dora...

[Normandy]

Isn't it a general rule that a system that tracks east of the Islands is bound for Florida or the GOM?

No, that is not a general rule.

Systems have tracked east of the islands and struck FL/GOM/East Coast and also have became fish.

[jaxfladude]

The "H" storm the one to give the CONUS the first "must watch this system closely" this season?

IIRC the train of thought was S TEX was "small chance" and the Yucatan and Mexico was the trendy pick, I would be wrong though...

[RL3AO]

Take a breath guys. It may be a depression, it may not. Hopefully that buoy and visibles will confirm either or.

[Gustywind]

If current trends keep going even the nhc "will" upgade this by 11am once the sun comes up. As it moves more westward into the central Atlantic, it should only get more favorable for development of this system with warmer sst's and less SAL.

That's absolutely credible... and we're in the peak things can go quicker than we can expect...and there's enough distance to something being strong at least but beetween right now and 11am i don't expected much than a small ts i vote for a td right at 5am ... that's seem correct!

[Weatherfreak000]

I think this weakness being discussed isn't all it's cracked up to be. But finally after Felix and Dean we have a system that may actually turn NW.


Now is the time to watch the system, not the models or trends. Don't allow yourself to get burned by faulty model runs that don't know what they are talking about.

It's typical fare at this stage, all systems in this area seem to typically have this same set-up. Just remember the weaker it stays the more likely it'll traverse into the Caribbean, the stronger it gets the more North it'll move.

Watch the storm, not the models.