TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear looks very low over this system right now. Also I see outflow starting to fan out on all quads, really so the southeastern. But a weak outflow boundry at mid levels just shot out of the eastern quad to. So kind of countering a strengthing over the next few hours...If upper levels remain favorable, I could see this go through a slight IRC.

[jabber]

Latest:

Can anyone tell me what process forms the 'spoke' patterns in the clouds (see visable image above)

Thanks

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The lowest pressure is at 14.1/49.08 meaning a new center could be forming under that burst of convection. That is right under the burst...Also that could be a southeast outflow channel. Which is caused by "upper" shear blowing in that direction. As long as it remains above the storm it can be good.

[CaneCharmer]

I have one word for everyone... FISH!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I have one word for everyone... FISH!

Not likely...At least I don't think so.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Weatherfreak000]

I'd have to agree, is everyone forgetting what Mr. Ortt's track has been consistently for this storm?


Don't ever say it's a fish until it's a fish. This storm could very well do anything.

[HollynLA]

I'd have to agree, is everyone forgetting what Mr. Ortt's track has been consistently for this storm?


Don't ever say it's a fish until it's a fish. This storm could very well do anything.

From what I recall, D. Ortt basically was calling it dead yesterday and even said discussion needed to start yesterday afternoon for an end to advisories and yesterday evening it became a TS. So no, I'm not aware of his track.

[Meso]

I cannot beleive at all some here want to upgrade this


if anything, a debate should continue if advisories should even continue past this afternoon unless the trends reverse

That's what he said,he said if anything the debate should be on advisories.I'm guessing it was just his way of saying it was closer to an invest than a tropical storm at the time also unless the trend reverses.Some people seem to have misinterpreted

[cycloneye]

The latest from the dvorak image.Below 15n is the core of convection.

[HollynLA]

I cannot beleive at all some here want to upgrade this


if anything, a debate should continue if advisories should even continue past this afternoon unless the trends reverse

That's what he said,he said if anything the debate should be on advisories.I'm guessing it was just his way of saying it was closer to an invest than a tropical storm at the time also unless the trend reverses.Some people seem to have misinterpreted

You're right then, I misinterpreted what he said. Who knew it would become a TS only hours later. I do remember that after he posted that, many here were posting "stick a fork in it" , "it's dead Jim" posts............ and voila, a TS! I know that it's possible it won't survive on it's track, but it obviously wasn't dead yesterday morning. That has been the story of this season. They all seem to come back from the "dead".

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 49.2W AT 14/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 700 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A CIRCULAR MASS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 48W-51W. THIS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN IT APPEARED MORE ELONGATED N-S. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN BUT IT APPEARS TO
EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE MODERATE W TO SW
SHEAR EFFECTING THE SYSTEM ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES INTO A REGION OF STRONGER SHEAR.

[chrisnnavarre]

Looks like NHC is keeping all their eggs in that shear basket. This looks very serious and if LLC locates under convection then it's still south of 15N and moving westward. We'll all know just how serious it is for sure in about 4 to 5 days. My bet is Tuesday the flags and banners go up. I expect to see some weakening today but I just don't think this will completely die or go fishing over the ridge.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I'm interested in the feature that just appeared on visibles on the eastern half of Ingrid:



Is that line known as an outflow boundary?

Thanks in advance.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes that is a outflow boundry. Ingrids pressure core is very broard and disorganized right now. I think one is trying to form under the convection near 14.1/49.1.

[Thunder44]

I'm interested in the feature that just appeared on visibles on the eastern half of Ingrid:



Is that line known as an outflow boundary?

Thanks in advance.

Yes, it's an outflow boundary, and a big one at that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

51 knots at the surface. I would go 50 knots at 11am est.