Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
jhamps10

#101 Postby jhamps10 » Fri Sep 14, 2007 11:55 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

144 GFS, has low pressure just south of new orleans.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#102 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:05 am

00z GFS...

174 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
^^hovering south of the TX/LA border^^

204 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
^^hovering off the TX coast^^

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^has made landfall on the upper TX coast and is moving inland^^

This run is much further west with the potential system than the 18z run was, and now seems to bullseye Texas as the end target.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9485
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#103 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:08 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:00z GFS...

174 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
^^hovering south of the TX/LA border^^

204 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
^^hovering off the TX coast^^

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^has made landfall on the upper TX coast and is moving inland^^

This run is much further west with the potential system than the 18z run was, and now seems to bullseye Texas as the end target.





well lets see...its been to TX to FL.....safe to say all of the gulf coast needs to keep an eye out.......
0 likes   

jhamps10

Re: Re:

#104 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:14 am

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:00z GFS...

174 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
^^hovering south of the TX/LA border^^

204 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
^^hovering off the TX coast^^

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
^^has made landfall on the upper TX coast and is moving inland^^

This run is much further west with the potential system than the 18z run was, and now seems to bullseye Texas as the end target.





well lets see...its been to TX to FL.....safe to say all of the gulf coast needs to keep an eye out.......


yeah, the placement may change, but one thing that remains, is that it shows something out there. Defentially has my ears pinned that's for sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#105 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:16 am

It looks like the strength/position of the coming ridge will be crucial for the potential path. The weaker or further east the ridge is, then the more likely the storm will be to strike from Louisiana eastward..whereas the stronger or further west the ridge is, the more likely the storm will be to strike from Louisiana westward. Hopefully within the next few days we will have a much better idea on how this situation will play out and whether or not this "possible" storm seems to actually be taking shape.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#106 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:34 am

I'll copy this over from the Ingrid model thread, where I posted it earlier. It's more pertinent here, though . . .



I wouldn't take the Euro too seriously . . . that's the third time this season I've seen it try to develop an offshoot of the Columbian low, and neither time did it actually occur.

Though the fact that the GFS develops it as well is a bit more promising, I would (as always) suggest waiting for additional model support and a closer timeframe before jumping on that bandwagon . . .
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re:

#107 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:07 am

WindRunner wrote:I'll copy this over from the Ingrid model thread, where I posted it earlier. It's more pertinent here, though . . .



I wouldn't take the Euro too seriously . . . that's the third time this season I've seen it try to develop an offshoot of the Columbian low, and neither time did it actually occur.

Though the fact that the GFS develops it as well is a bit more promising, I would (as always) suggest waiting for additional model support and a closer timeframe before jumping on that bandwagon . . .


I'm not so sure many living along the Gulf coast would consider the potential of another tropical threat "promising" in anyway. I personally will believe it when I see it. The track is pretty unusual to say the least. I can't recall any system that took a track that far north across the Gulf coast from east to west. I do recall Elena doing something like that many years ago but that was after she came up toward Fl. from the south and then went east along the northern Gulf coast to off the Tampa coast and stalled. Then she headed back to west before making landfall somewhere along the central GOM.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#108 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:39 am

Last night's EURO still showed development, although weaker this run with a low off the Louisiana coast on Sunday, Sept 23rd. The 00z NOGAPS lowers pressures all across the southern Caribbean, while the 00z UKMET tries to form a low. The 06z GFS is also still on the bandwagon, but on this run, it re-curves the system east toward the west Florida coast. So, pretty much all the big dogs still agreeing on development.

The NAM jumps on too now with something down there at 84 hours. (Please try not to lecture me about the NAM)

*Still....oddly enough, the Canadian shows nothing LOL
0 likes   

caneman

Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib

#109 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:56 am

Link for 06 GFS?
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib

#110 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 15, 2007 6:06 am

caneman wrote:Link for 06 GFS?


Comes from the WSW over Florida:
06z GFS
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#111 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 15, 2007 6:51 am

Image

Accuweather also supports the Southern Caribbean. They don't support Colombia, they support Columbia (Pictures)?!?!?!?!?
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4829
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib

#112 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:01 am

From HPC Preliminary Disc:

...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW FROM OFF THE EAST FL COAST WILL WORK WESTWARD TOWARDS ALONG THE UPPER GLFMEX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH RAIN SPREADING WESTWARD THRU THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY MAY SPREAD NWD ENHANCING THIS AREA.
0 likes   

mattpetre
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 510
Age: 53
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:20 pm
Location: Missouri City,TX & Galleria
Contact:

Re: Second Depression to form in the GOM??

#113 Postby mattpetre » Sat Sep 15, 2007 7:35 am

That front and being cutoff is the main reason I believe there could be a depression form in this area. I initially thought it would be the ex 92L wave and the front interacting in a symbiotic way, but it appears that the front alone getting cutoff around FL is the only was this scenario could pan out. I'm not as bullish as I was on Humberto for that week, but do still believe it could happen.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#114 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:56 am

1415 utc visible shows developing cyclonic turning over panama near 8/83w beginning to tighten and move north over water

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
0 likes   

jhamps10

Re:

#115 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:01 am

Vortex wrote:1415 utc visible shows developing cyclonic turning over panama near 8/83w beginning to tighten and move north over water

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html


I was just getting ready to post that vortex, good eye. if this keeps up with convection, we could have an invest tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#116 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:07 am

From Jeff Masters this morning:


Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Models beginning to jump on SW Carib

#117 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:11 am

Lyons says to watch for the weak wave moving westward through the Caribbean to merge with the Low trying to pull up from Panama and move north.
0 likes   

jhamps10

#118 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:14 am

TPC's thoughts in the TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
FAR TO THE EAST AS 70W. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOUTHWEST OF 14N83W 11N75W. A 500 MB TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W ARE MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N70W ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

and sanibel, That would make a lot of sense, and should it merge, then that would give it a real good shot of developing into something.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#119 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:21 am

I was thinking about that this morning..In fact, i remember John Hope on similar situations and he nailed it most of the time :D
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#120 Postby skysummit » Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:23 am

Good eye vortex! It's definitely there, and moving offshore. I never thought of looking this morning. Thanks!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: HurricaneBelle, riapal and 34 guests