Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[jhamps10]

H+66 and stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

holy cow. also looks to be heading more north west than earlier runs too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z EURO

Here is the last model that was left of the 12z run.The gulf is with the L.

hmm. Seems to follow the UKMET in showing a more western GOM scenario..toward TX. Not liking that!

[ROCK]

this will likely bend back more west...Not sure if it makes it to Cuba or even the Fl Keys first but this could become a significant LA/TX threat...

Not sure I would say that FL is defintly NOT in the mix here.....it all depends how strong the high is to drive it west....this time a year you need a pretty strong ridge to push something westward.....any weakness and it would be FL bound...

this is all about timing.....IF something developes.

[Vortex]

H+78 500mb pattern..

Notice the weakness over FL..This is depicted by most models...This will become a KEY player next week

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

[ROCK]

12z EURO

Here is the last model that was left of the 12z run.The gulf is with the L.

hmm. Seems to follow the UKMET in showing a more western GOM scenario..toward TX. Not liking that!

Might be sniffing out a stronger ridge.....than earlier runs...

[Extremeweatherguy]

What bothers me is that the ECMWF, which is usually very good with upper air patterns, is showing a stronger ridge in place with no real weakness over FL..



..this kind of scenario would be horrible for the western GOM!

[jhamps10]

What bothers me is that the ECMWF, which is usually very good with upper air patterns, is showing a stronger ridge in place with no real weakness over FL..



..this kind of scenario would be horrible for the western GOM!

indeed it would be. plus it also would be bad for pretty much the entire gulf west of 85W.

actually that looks like it is going to go in, right where humberto went in the other day.

[Vortex]

Nam Loop....mostly north bound and intensifying. This will be a large storm if not strong....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

500mb pattern at end of run...weakness over Florida and SE coastal waters..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[Johnny]

I do believe we will have a stronger ridge in place that would keep this on a more WNW track. During our tracking with Dean, a few models were showing a weakness in the ridge and a couple pro mets on here and on t.v. were thinking that Dean would move more northward because of this weakness. Dean never found a weakness because one never materialized. The same thing with Felix. So far the ridge has been king and I think it will remain that way with this future threat. Just my 2 cents.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nam Loop....mostly north bound and intensifying. This will be a large storm if not strong....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

JB alluded to this senario yesterday...Major cane to hit the US gulf coast in the next 10 days.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am not sure if you guys realize this, but this low that you guys see in the GOM in the 12Z Euro run is not the low that is forecast to form in the west carib by the other models. Actually it is a low that forms just off the FL/GA coast and moves westward into the GOM. The 12Z Euro doesnt really develop much of a low in the west carib. Just take a look at this link for a better look:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

If I looked at this model the wrong way please help me out with it cause Im not that good with models yet

<RICKY>

[jhamps10]

Nam Loop....mostly north bound and intensifying. This will be a large storm if not strong....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

JB alluded to this senario yesterday...Major cane to hit the US gulf coast in the next 10 days.

yeah, I'd say everyone in the gulf have supplies ready should this develop. Of course you should have had the supplies ready in june, but not everyone does that.
we need to watch this very closely folks, because the models are now showing this developing as soon as tomorrow, so it will be a fun ride on here the next 48 hours that's for sure,

[Vortex]

18z GFS will be rolling in soon...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this has a very high chance of developing with the high level of model support. We should start seeing some development tomarrow. The nam reminds me of Michelle 2001? I don't believe it will go east but more north or even west once north of 20.

[PTPatrick]

I beleive some of the models...mainly UKMET are developing something in the northern GOM. Some sort of left over engery from the front or soemthing. MOST of the other models are showing something from the Carribean. Of note... GFS keeps the system but has gone from a stall job over Mobile to New ORleans area in the overnight runs last night and yesterday 18z...to a cross over Cuba with a clip on Miami ending up in the carolinas...12z is Apalachicola via western Cuba. Take home message...lots of flip flopping, although I do NOT want to See that bullseye of QP over New Orleans again from last night 0z....not a funny joke GFS. my guess is we have a long week ahead.

[Vortex]

This is one of those situation where everyone from Texas to the Florida keys needs to pay close attention to this developing situation as early as Sunday evening..

[PTPatrick]

question: is this thing the models are jumping on the group of clouds in the eastern carib moving west...or just something that will pop up tomorrow in the western carrib.

[Vortex]

combination of the monsoon trough lifting north and the wave over the central carribean moving west which should spawn low pressure near 12/78.

[PTPatrick]

Is the CMC jumping on the same thing UKMET is only a different way...CMC develops something off the coast of SC and hits Savannah with a cane...then moves it toward New Orleans...whilst UKMET moves something disorganized over Norther FLorida westward toward Louisiana. CMC develops something in the SW carrib too but hits central america with it. crazy models.