Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[cycloneye]

Post away those runs in this new thread as the other one reached 25 pages.

Link to first thread of models for Carib.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97987&start=0

[jhamps10]

I thought that we wasn't doing the thread lock-ups anymore? or was that just for invests and ACTUAL storms....

[cycloneye]

I thought that we wasn't doing the thread lock-ups anymore? or was that just for invests and ACTUAL storms....

In Talking Tropics forum the 25 page limit continues.In Active Storms forum the threads can continue.

[Vortex]

NAM 9/17 00Z

H+48

a little stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

H+54

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[HURAKAN]

933
ABNT20 KNHC 170230
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Steve]

>>Thread reached the full 25 pages.

Ugh. 40 minutes on a post and it got nuked.

extreme abbreviated cliffnotes:

JB's 6-10 days is now 4-8 (call for a US and A landfalling hurricane, 'probably a major.')

Upper trough nosing at Central America (see WV Loop) needs to clear out before anything comes up from the SW Caribbean. Without checking shear maps, looks like a shot at very strong pattern reversal. This would indicate favorable (possibly extremely favorable) upper support after the upper trough splits or retrogrades (48-60 hours?)

Interesting week ahead. The later development occurs, the more likely whatever forms is going farther west and probably the stronger it will be (both IMHO). Although it's pretty evident we're about to enter a development pulse, until we know where the genesis is, we really can't even speculate on tracks yet.

Nari hit Korea. Wipha is now progged to hit China on a NW heading. SE Atlantic ridging indicated early week after next (building in prior)

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

As a response to some of the comments on the other thread..

I think we actually have a decent shot at seeing something develop next week. Not only are many of the models showing something in the GOM or caribbean, but we also have pro mets such as Jeff, Wxman57, Joe Bastardi and Jeff Masters all saying that the potential is there. Anyone trying to say that there is "little to no chance" of development next week needs to remember Humberto. He showed us that anything can happen..even when nearly everything is turned against a system. Considering this upcoming situation has much more model and met support than Humberto ever did though, I think chances of development are probably pretty high. We shall see what actually happens, but ATM I am leaning toward a better than not chance of development somewhere in the GOM or western Caribbean next week. Time will tell if i'm right..

[Vortex]

H+60

Slowly North..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Ptarmigan]

As a response to some of the comments on the other thread..

I think we actually have a decent shot at seeing something develop next week. Not only are many of the models showing something in the GOM or caribbean, but we also have pro mets such as Jeff, Wxman57, Joe Bastardi and Jeff Masters all saying that the potential is there. Anyone trying to say that there is "little to no chance" of development next week needs to remember Humberto. He showed us that anything can happen..even when nearly everything is turned against a system. Considering this upcoming situation has much more model and met support than Humberto ever did though, I think chances of development are probably pretty high. We shall see what actually happens, but ATM I am leaning toward a better than not chance of development somewhere in the GOM or western Caribbean next week. Time will tell if i'm right..

Simply put it this way, we should really watch the tropics period, due to the fact that we are in a more active period of the season. This week should be rather interesting.

[Steve]

>>Way too much is being made of what we have right now which is "nothing".

This is the talking tropics forum. That's what we do.



Steve

[jhamps10]

>>Thread reached the full 25 pages.

Ugh. 40 minutes on a post and it got nuked.

extreme abbreviated cliffnotes:

JB's 6-10 days is now 4-8 (call for a US and A landfalling hurricane, 'probably a major.')

Upper trough nosing at Central America (see WV Loop) needs to clear out before anything comes up from the SW Caribbean. Without checking shear maps, looks like a shot at very strong pattern reversal. This would indicate favorable (possibly extremely favorable) upper support after the upper trough splits or retrogrades (48-60 hours?)

Interesting week ahead. The later development occurs, the more likely whatever forms is going farther west and probably the stronger it will be (both IMHO). Although it's pretty evident we're about to enter a development pulse, until we know where the genesis is, we really can't even speculate on tracks yet.

Nari hit Korea. Wipha is now progged to hit China on a NW heading. SE Atlantic ridging indicated early week after next (building in prior)

Steve

ouch on the long work only to not get to post it. actually on your pattern reversal you are DEAD on those thoughts, as by tuesday or wed at the VERY latest the shear should lessen some. yeah I still think US gets hit by a major cane by the end of the month too. (although I'd really be glad if that forecast busts)

[Vortex]

H+66

A little stronger

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72

Near Jamaica


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Vortex]

H+78

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

NAM 00Z Loop as it moves North over Jamaica


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

It seems to me that most of the local NWS discussions are focusing on possible
development coming across Fl. into the GOM and not anything coming in from the Carribean.
Are we talking about two separate systems here and if so then one will ultimately affect the other adversely if they end up in the GOM at the same time. IMO

[perk]

It seems to me that most of the local NWS discussions are focusing on possible
development coming across Fl. into the GOM and not anything coming in from the Carribean.
Are we talking about two separate systems here and if so then one will ultimately affect the other adversely if they end up in the GOM at the same time. IMO

Stormcenter go to page 22 in the other thread and read Jeff's analysis, maybe it will help to clear things up for you.

[Ptarmigan]

I just heard on the local news there is a upper low on the East Coast and it could move south into the GOM when the high moves west. It could interact with the tropical wave and may develop into a tropical system.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

0Z NAM 84 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_s.shtml

1004 mb Low over Northeast Florida,
and then the Caribbean Cyclone, moving
north of Jamacia,
Notice the Very Strong Low feature over
florida and the steering currents.