Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

PTPatrick · #721 Postby **PTPatrick** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:06 pm

I have never heard of a hybrid type system, or cold core or whatever moving WEST in the GOM this time of year. Just seems like something doesnt add up. Not saying its out of the question, but seems very strange. Sheared, maybe, but hybrid or cold core as some have mentioned just doesnt seem probable.

#722 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:06 pm

DFW NWS has been constantly mentioning this in their AFD's for about the past 3 days.

alienstorm · #723 Postby **alienstorm** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:09 pm

Regardless, looks like some drough relief for the Lake!!!! I will tend to believe as mentioned earlier that development will occur between the southern bahamas and the northeast coast of Cuba. This should move WNW to NW crossing the state near the Lake and dropping corpious amount of rain.

Nimbus · #724 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:14 pm

What's that rotation off the east coast of Florida at the tail end of the trough? Is that upper level or something working it's way down to the surface? Its not headed west is it?

Website · #725 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:25 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA OR THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ARE LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

#726 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:27 pm

5:30 PM TWO

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA OR THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

Johnny · #727 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:29 pm

From the Houston/Galveston office this afternoon......

EYES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DELAYED THE START
OF OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUED
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LOW END CHANCE POP FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND MAY
GO THROUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS WEEK. PLEASE STAY TUNED!

Wx_Warrior · #728 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:31 pm

This one will be a weird one to figure out and will leave it to the Weather Gods.

#729 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:31 pm

Nimbus wrote:What's that rotation off the east coast of Florida at the tail end of the trough? Is that upper level or something working it's way down to the surface? Its not headed west is it?

Nimbus, pull that tongue out of your cheek! :lol:

#730 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:34 pm

don't we already have a 34-page thread on this topic?

#731 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:don't we already have a 34-page thread on this topic?

I have no idea. I've seen 4 or 5 threads on GOM/SE coast development. I don't know what is what.

Website · #732 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:don't we already have a 34-page thread on this topic?

LOL, I'm confused as to what this thread is for. Much like I'm confused by how there are 2 different areas with the chance to develop right next to each other. :lol:

MiamiensisWx · #733 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:don't we already have a 34-page thread on this topic?

I appreciate your input, but I don't see the problem with this thread. The title referred to the Bahamas area. That is quite specific. Additionally, the other thread is for models. This thread covers discussions, analysis, and imagery. It may include models to support one's opinion, but it is not the primary model thread. Luis altered the title and omitted "Bahamas". I changed the thread title back to the original header. You can look at the posts to determine which area this thread encompasses; the sfc trough and fractured wave axis + associated convection in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

#734 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:42 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:don't we already have a 34-page thread on this topic?

I appreciate your input, but I don't see the problem with this thread. The title referred to the Bahamas area. That is quite specific. Additionally, the other thread is for models. This thread covers discussions, analysis, and imagery. It may include models to support one's opinion, but it is not the primary model thread.

Though aren't all (East Coast/FL, Bahamas & Carribean) of these disturbances suppose to combine into one in some sort of way and track accross the GOM?

#735 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:44 pm

36 hours

Low in Florida Straits.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #736 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:45 pm

3 convective areas including a tropical wave are about
to combine and become something big:

MiamiensisWx · #737 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:46 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Though aren't all (East Coast/FL, Bahamas & Carribean) of these disturbances suppose to combine into one in some sort of way and track accross the GOM?

This thread focuses on a legit area. The 2:05 p.m. EDT TWD mentioned this area as a distinct entity (sfc trough and fractured wave axis in the area). It is unrelated to the NE Florida system. Please do not make this thread into a fuss over which system is discussed here. If you want to discuss the issue, feel free to PM me. The 5:30 p.m. EDT TWO mentioned both areas because of their close proximity. Can we all get along and discuss the system?

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #738 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:48 pm

Excellent Call MiamiensisWX

I think the bahamas wave which is developing will pull
in the NE florida Blob and really explode: See how
close together they are

#739 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:49 pm

48 hours

There is no L in the 48 timeframe.

#740 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:53 pm

60 hours

There is a low near or over Miami.

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