Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

jhamps10 · #741 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:60 hours

There is a low near or over Miami.

Yeah that is right over Miami/Dade county it looks like to me. best guess is from our Bahamas system for this low.

#742 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:57 pm

72 hours

Is over open gulf waters.

Wx_Warrior · #743 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:57 pm

Two Ls.... :eek:

jhamps10 · #744 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:72 hours

Is over open gulf waters.

wait one minute here, two lows???? Something looks odd here having that so close to each other.

YouTube · #745 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:59 pm

Reminds me a lot of the Katrina-genesis. Just the look of the map, that's all. Rita comes to mind as well- but that was further south. Anyone know how the upper levels were during those times? I would suspect that there was NOT a large upper low to the west of Katrina and Rita. But I cannot remember...

#746 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:59 pm

Yea....anyone care to explain what the GFS is doing here because I'm clueless.

Wx_Warrior · #747 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:00 pm

If I remember correctly it was different...

#748 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:00 pm

Jacksonville long range radar does seem to indicate some mid level cyclonic twisting just east of Daytona. Looks like a low is trying to form on the frontal boundry. Might be an area to keep an eye on.....MGC

MiamiensisWx · #749 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:01 pm

It looks like the GFS develops an offshoot from the Bahamas system. It moves the first closed sfc low (Bahamas system) N along SE Florida with a trough, while a second low develops in the E Gulf of Mexico and moves W under a ridge.

#750 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:02 pm

Well, I see a tightening up to the clouds east of Daytona....also radar imagery is showing a tightening swirl in the same area. So that one, along with the area coming from the Bahamas would equal 2 lows....LOL, I dunno. I'm lost.

jhamps10 · #751 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:02 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Reminds me a lot of the Katrina-genesis. Just the look of the map, that's all. Rita comes to mind as well- but that was further south. Anyone know how the upper levels were during those times? I would suspect that there was NOT a large upper low to the west of Katrina and Rita. But I cannot remember...

I think, and again this is an i THINK someone said the other day that the upper levels look VERY close to that of the Katrina/rita timeframe.

#752 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:02 pm

90 hours

In 90 only one low in central gulf.

Wx_Warrior · #753 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:03 pm

Someone needs to post a link then for me to confirm or deny. Power has just been restored to everyone (those who didn't get homes destroyed).

The town of High Island, Tx was tore up pretty good. Here's hoping nothing more comes their way!

MiamiensisWx · #754 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:04 pm

skysummit wrote:Well, I see a tightening up to the clouds east of Daytona....also radar imagery is showing a tightening swirl in the same area. So that one, along with the area coming from the Bahamas would equal 2 lows....LOL, I dunno. I'm lost.

It develops the first low near the Turks and Caicos by ~36 hours. It moves WNW toward Miami, and it moves N in SE Florida because of the trough off NE Florida. At the same time, a second low develops in the GOM. This run never develops the NE Florida low.

jhamps10 · #755 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:90 hours

In 90 only one low in central gulf.

yeah, and what would that be over western cuba? that looks better than the low.

Wx_Warrior · #756 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:05 pm

All bets are off with this run...This one will have the board popping with guesstimates!

#757 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:08 pm

102 hours

Ummm from 90 to 102 it becomes almost stationary.

Wx_Warrior · #758 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:08 pm

Very dangerous :eek:

#759 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:08 pm

#760 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:13 pm

Oh Lawd....still stationary at 114 Hours.

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