Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[skysummit]

From upper mid coast Texas on east...No just TX/LA my friend

Highest risk areas are probably from Brownsville to New Orleans..and possibly FL from an initial landfall if it forms in time. The pattern, according to JB, is indicative of a TX/LA landfalling system in the end run.

Is that his latest look on things EWG? Like...as of this afternoon, or was that something from earlier this morning?

[Extremeweatherguy]

From upper mid coast Texas on east...No just TX/LA my friend

Highest risk areas are probably from Brownsville to New Orleans..and possibly FL from an initial landfall if it forms in time. The pattern, according to JB, is indicative of a TX/LA landfalling system in the end run.

Is that his latest look on things EWG? Like...as of this afternoon, or was that something from earlier this morning?

He mentioned it in his videos this morning and then he also brought up TX again in his 1:30pm post. Nothing new since then though.

[tailgater]

This chart shows 4 areas that something could get started from, East of Fla, the Bahamas, western tip of Cuba and a loose naked swirl heading NW form the southern Caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
or maybe a combition of of 2 or more, or maybe nothing. Which do think?
I'm going with the western tip of Cuba/ NW Caribbean even though there is a ton of shear right now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very Windy with the Low off Florida:

Winds Gusting Over 30 mph:
Just South of Daytona Beach:

17 16:47 NE 18 G 33 7.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN011 79 72 30.07 NA
17 15:47 NE 18 G 32 7.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN011 79 73 30.05 NA
17 14:47 NE 18 G 21 7.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN085 79 73 30.05 NA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 5&map.y=62

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/

Daytona Beach Airport:
17 17:53 NE 18 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN023 BKN080 79 69 30.07 1018.1
17 16:53 NE 20 G 30 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT018 BKN025 BKN030 79 69 30.07 1018.2
17 15:53 NE 10 G 21 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW016 BKN120 81 70 30.05 1017.5
17 14:53 NE 18 G 26 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT015 BKN120 81 72 30.06 1017.9
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDAB.html

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD from TPC.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N72W TO A WEAK 1016
MB LOW ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N77W NE TO BEYOND
32N67W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF THE W ATLC W OF 69W

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Steve]

>>The pattern, according to JB, is indicative of a TX/LA landfalling system in the end run. The only way I see this going further east would be if a sudden front (currently not expected) comes out of the blue and turns this system in time.

Yeah, that's always possible. Last night, I was was working on a pretty long post, but it didn't take. One of my thoughts was that the longer cyclogenesis took (assuming it did), the more likely westward the track would be. That is, if we didn't see anything until W/Th, Texas would become more likely to be a target toward the end of the weekend/early next week. But that only goes up to a point. Eventually something's going to come through. So while later timing with development seems to indicate higher Texas probabilities, the longer it stayed over water afterwards (or if things were to develop even more slowly than something trackable on Thursday) would seem to indicate a lessening threat there (with a greater threat to other points - south, north, northeast or whatever).

Definitely a week that we're all going to learn something.

Steve

[Brent]

Local met showed a lot of interest just now, says it should head for TX though. Looks like a ridge is building in again here.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WARNING: THE FOLLOWING is NOT OFFICIAL.
THE FOLLOWING IS NOT a WIshcast. It is
just a drawing of what the NAM/GFS have been showing:

[Ptarmigan]

Whatever happens, it will give rain, regardless of where it goes. This week should be very interesting though. It is this time of the year, when tropics are active.

[ronjon]

Considering that the GFS had Dean and Felix as open waves I sure don't put much stock in the GFS intensity signature. I use it more for the upper level steering and track guidance. So far, we just don't seem to have a dynamic model that does well with intensity yet - maybe someday if we start pouring more dollars into hurricane research - but that is another topic.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Update: Many Locations on florida's east/west coast near this
Disturbance reporting sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts over 30 mph.
Sustained winds have increased to NEAR 30 MPH already. WOW, this thing is
getting windy!


150 miles SW of the Disturbance:
Saint Pete: NE 25 MPH
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=151

Pretty Strong.
Current SUSTAINED WINDS are 25-30 mph 150 miles SW of this disturbance:

Davis Islands, Tampa:==================================SUSTAINED WIND======WIND GUST
19:13 83.1 °F / 28.4 °C 73.1 °F / 22.8 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa ENE 25mph / 40.2km/h 28mph / 45.1km/h 72% 0.00in / 0.0mm
19:23 82.9 °F / 28.3 °C 71.7 °F / 22.1 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa NE 26mph / 41.8km/h 26mph / 41.8km/h 69% 0.00in / 0.0mm
19:33 82.7 °F / 28.2 °C 71.5 °F / 21.9 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa ENE 28mph / 45.1km/h 32mph / 51.5km/h 69% 0.00in / 0.0mm
19:43 82.7 °F / 28.2 °C 70.6 °F / 21.4 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa NE 26mph / 41.8km/h 28mph / 45.1km/h 67% 0.00in / 0.0mm
19:48 82.2 °F / 27.9 °C 70.6 °F / 21.4 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa ENE 28mph / 45.1km/h 28mph / 45.1km/h 68% 0.00in / 0.0mm
19:53 82.0 °F / 27.8 °C 71.2 °F / 21.8 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 26mph / 41.8km/h 31mph / 49.9km/h 70% 0.00in / 0.0mm
20:03 81.8 °F / 27.7 °C 71.1 °F / 21.7 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 23mph / 37.0km/h 33mph / 53.1km/h 70% 0.00in / 0.0mm
20:08 81.6 °F / 27.6 °C 71.3 °F / 21.8 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 24mph / 38.6km/h 24mph / 38.6km/h 71% 0.00in / 0.0mm

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLTAMPA47



FLorida EAST COAST OBS:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... each%2C+fl
Scroll down to the PWS's
Several fire station weather stations reporting 22-27 mph sustained winds with gusts
over 30 mph.

[ROCK]

Considering that the GFS had Dean and Felix as open waves I sure don't put much stock in the GFS intensity signature. I use it more for the upper level steering and track guidance. So far, we just don't seem to have a dynamic model that does well with intensity yet - maybe someday if we start pouring more dollars into hurricane research - but that is another topic.

The GFDL did ok with intensity this year. The new HWRF was horrible....We might never see intensity forecast worth a hill of beans. So many variables to consider.....

[jeff]

Not sure I would put much faith in any of the globals for intensity as they have not done the best job so far this year...Dean, Felix, and even Humberto. Once the GFDL is started to run on the system wherever it may decide to form up...we should have a better handle on intensity. Not to be a concern...but I do see hurricane potential with this system IF if moves on a westward track and if far enough removed from the TUTT in the W GOM come this weekend.

Residents along the Gulf coast W of the MS river should pay close attention in the coming days. For those model watchers..check out the 12Z CMC...about a 500 mile difference in track location between the 00Z and 12Z runs...but it is showing nearly the same intensity??? Gotta love those model runs.

I think we are starting to see how this will come to play today versus yesterday as there is consensus in the guidance of something forming in the Bahamas, E FL and tracking generally westward. Could be the area of weather over the central Bahamas or the stalled frontal with MCS meso lows spinning up off the FL E coast or some wierd combination of both. As one poster put it we will likely all learn something this week.

[jasons2k]

Something interesting to note - there were some evening waterspouts & funnels on the W. Coast of Florida this evening. Those usually occur earlier in the day. The last time we had waterspouts in the evening was last week in Texas, the night before Humberto went from nothing to something.

[MiamiensisWx]

Something interesting to note - there were some evening waterspouts & funnels on the W. Coast of Florida this evening. Those usually occur earlier in the day. The last time we had waterspouts in the evening was last week in Texas, the night before Humberto went from nothing to something.

I actually saw a funnel cloud ~1 mile ESE of my house in SE Florida tonight. I forced my very old grandmother to take some shelter (if necessary) under our dining room table. It dissipated when it passed uncomfortably close to my location (just to the S). I'm surprised the threat of waterspouts wasn't mentioned for both coasts of south FL in the NWS discussions. This funnel originated from a cumulus moving ashore in Palm Beach County. The funnel grew when it approached my location - we had a close call, fortunately.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18ZUKmet "kinda" joins the CMC in ECFL Development..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can't find anything yet from the east coast:
Can someone post observations, if Possible, from
the east coast very close to this disturbance:

but at a local Station:
Davis Islands, Tampa Sustained wind of 28 mph gusts to 33:

19:48 82.2 °F / 27.9 °C 70.6 °F / 21.4 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa ENE 28mph / 45.1km/h 28mph / 45.1km/h 68% 0.00in / 0.0mm
19:53 82.0 °F / 27.8 °C 71.2 °F / 21.8 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 26mph / 41.8km/h 31mph / 49.9km/h 70% 0.00in / 0.0mm
20:03 81.8 °F / 27.7 °C 71.1 °F / 21.7 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 23mph / 37.0km/h 33mph / 53.1km/h 70% 0.00in / 0.0mm
20:08 81.6 °F / 27.6 °C 71.3 °F / 21.8 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 24mph / 38.6km/h 24mph / 38.6km/h 71% 0.00in / 0.0mm
20:13 81.6 °F / 27.6 °C 71.7 °F / 22.1 °C 29.97in / 1014.8hPa NE 22mph / 35.4km/h 29mph / 46.7km/h 72% 0.00in / 0.0mm
20:23 81.2 °F / 27.3 °C 71.7 °F / 22.1 °C 29.98in / 1015.1hPa NE 28mph / 45.1km/h 33mph 53.1km/h 73% 0.00in / 0.0mm

LINK:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLTAMPA47

[cpdaman]

interesting miamiensis wx

i saw a water spout at about 1130 am from the spanish river /95 over pass looked to be over the water near palmetto(but off shore) i raced to the beach but it was gone

lots of "stuff" happening between t'storms uniting between central bahamas and se coast tonite. maybe a windy day tomorrow to kill some of this heat/humidity in s. fl

[Vortex]

Does anyone have the link to the Nassau radar? I saw it posted here a few weeks ago.

[MiamiensisWx]

Does anyone have the link to the Nassau radar? I saw it posted here a few weeks ago.

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/