Something I was Thinking About....

[gatorcane]

****Note this thread is NOT aimed at everybody, it is just a general observation and discussion of this observation that I want to make ****

I really think 2005 jaded alot of us. By that I mean we think that nearly every blob that looks decent is going to develop. That was true in 2005 and maybe 1933. Other than that most blobs and waves DO NOT develop. I decided that if I bet against development I am going with the odds most of the time. In addition if I bet against invest X developing and hitting the U.S somewhere I am also going with the odds.

But that above statement/paragraph is pretty obvious and I have seen various and sundry permutations of it mentioned in prior threads. But I was also thinking that the Katrinas, Andrews, Ritas, Ivans etc RARELY happen. In fact New Orleans or Miami may just go another 50+ years without seeing anything as potent as what these cities saw in 2005, and 1992 respectively. So the fact I see some predicting possible doom and gloom for some city when we barely have an invest is simply irrational and not going with the odds.

Bottom-line:
Chances are if you see a blob or invest it is NOT going to develop. I think it is about time we are all rational and go with historical odds sound statistical reasoning.

[RL3AO]

This season was a bust! It is a flop! This season stunk! Its not like anything matters if it doesn't hit the U.S.


I posted that to save room since 10 people would have said that, or part of that statement. Now you don't have to.

[gatorcane]

RL3AO I am not trying to say this year is a bust. Rather my post applies to ANY year accept those that are hyperactive -- which rarely happen.

[RL3AO]

I was joking if you couldn't tell. This season has been near normal and it looks like October/November will be above average. Yes, 2004 and 5 made people WACKO! We just had 2 Category 5 hurricanes make landfall this year. Before 2004, every person who follows the tropics would be speechless. They would be talking about how amazing this season was.

[Category 5]

I am not trying to say this year is a bust.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97892
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97548
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96771

[Stephanie]

I think you make some good points gatorcane. HOPEFULLY, we will never witness a 2005 or 2006 season again in our lifetime. I do believe that we have become jaded and feel that "normal" should 15 - 20 storms a year.

I've read the posts that Cat 5 highlighted, and if anything, I've noticed a change in your tune from an element of lament and giving up to coming to realize that this is about as normal of a season as we're going to get - other than the fact that both landfalling hurricanes were Cat 5's. This particular post solidifies that evolution.

[Category 5]

I think you make some good points gatorcane. HOPEFULLY, we will never witness a 2005 or 2006 season again in our lifetime. I do believe that we have become jaded and feel that "normal" should 15 - 20 storms a year.

You mean 2004 and 2005.

I'd take 2006 anytime.

[Normandy]

Well, in terms of strikes this year this season SO FAR is pretty comparable to 2005 IMO. At this point last year, Dennis (Cat3), Emily (Cat3 dual strike), Katrina (Cat1-Cat3 strike). Rita was on its way.

So far, Felix and Dean BOTH struck as Cat5's, and Humberto struck as a Cat1-Cat2. Erin pulled an Allison over OK, and killed 7 people.

2005 had more US strikes by this time and more cane strikes overall, but folks, 2 Cat5 strikes in the same season equals that IMO. Just put it this way: Had Dean and Felix struck the US as Cat5's, you all would be calling this the worst/best season ever (Depending on your viewpoint).


But Gatorcane, your point is well taken.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Just put it this way: Had Dean and Felix struck the US as Cat5's, you all would be calling this the worst/best season ever (Depending on your viewpoint).

And it might be justified, because a Cat5 strike on the U.S. is far less probable than one on the Yucatan or Central America. After all, there have only been three documented Cat5's to hit the U.S., right? (not counting the territories)

I think if a single Cat2 hit New York City or Washington DC, the mass media would react as if it were the worst season ever.

[Normandy]

Just put it this way: Had Dean and Felix struck the US as Cat5's, you all would be calling this the worst/best season ever (Depending on your viewpoint).

And it might be justified, because a Cat5 strike on the U.S. is far less probable than one on the Yucatan or Central America. After all, there have only been three documented Cat5's to hit the U.S., right? (not counting the territories)

I think if a single Cat2 hit New York City or Washington DC, the mass media would react as if it were the worst season ever.

Even if they were high-end 4's, people would still be calling this comparable to 2005. My point is simple....unless it hits the US, MOST people really aren't interested....thus people calling this season fairly quiet...Its all relative....this year, Central America and Mexico is having their 2005. Hurricane Ivo is about to strike the Baja, same place where Henriette struck. Dean tore through Mexico and also did damage to Belize. Felix flooded lots of Central America and tore up Nicaragua. This hurricane season has been VERY bad so far for lots of people. Its been SOMEWHAT good for the US...TS Erin flooded Oklahoma on the same levels that Allison flooded Houston, and Humberto tore up an already cripple SE Texas. IF a major (or two) hit the US at ANY POINT later this season, one could argue that overall this season was more destructive than 2004.

And yes, a Cat2 would be devastating to NYC....as far as the DC scenario...IF its a cat2 when it makes it to DC, than it prolly will be a whopper when it comes into VA.

[Deputy Van Halen]

thus people calling this season fairly quiet...Its all relative....this year, Central America and Mexico is having their 2005.

I think 2005 itself was worse for that part of the world than this season...Emily, Beta, and especially Stan and Wilma. No landfalling Cat5's for us to marvel at, but more devastation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gatorcane you make some interesting points. Hopefully things
will get quieter overall after something like 2005, and hopefully
2005 was a rare event. We can only hope.

It would be nice if only tropical storms hit land and
especially drought areas, but that is
just wishful thinking.

I am not trying to say this year is a bust.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97892
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97548
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96771

It's obvious that he has changed his mind, like many of us do, so I don't see the point of linking to previous threads.

[MortisFL]

I certainly think it jaded you.

****Note this thread is NOT aimed at everybody, it is just a general observation and discussion of this observation that I want to make ****

I really think 2005 jaded alot of us. By that I mean we think that nearly every blob that looks decent is going to develop. That was true in 2005 and maybe 1933. Other than that most blobs and waves DO NOT develop. I decided that if I bet against development I am going with the odds most of the time. In addition if I bet against invest X developing and hitting the U.S somewhere I am also going with the odds.

But that above statement/paragraph is pretty obvious and I have seen various and sundry permutations of it mentioned in prior threads. But I was also thinking that the Katrinas, Andrews, Ritas, Ivans etc RARELY happen. In fact New Orleans or Miami may just go another 50+ years without seeing anything as potent as what these cities saw in 2005, and 1992 respectively. So the fact I see some predicting possible doom and gloom for some city when we barely have an invest is simply irrational and not going with the odds.

Bottom-line:
Chances are if you see a blob or invest it is NOT going to develop. I think it is about time we are all rational and go with historical odds sound statistical reasoning.

[jlauderdal]

****Note this thread is NOT aimed at everybody, it is just a general observation and discussion of this observation that I want to make ****

I really think 2005 jaded alot of us. By that I mean we think that nearly every blob that looks decent is going to develop. That was true in 2005 and maybe 1933. Other than that most blobs and waves DO NOT develop. I decided that if I bet against development I am going with the odds most of the time. In addition if I bet against invest X developing and hitting the U.S somewhere I am also going with the odds.

But that above statement/paragraph is pretty obvious and I have seen various and sundry permutations of it mentioned in prior threads. But I was also thinking that the Katrinas, Andrews, Ritas, Ivans etc RARELY happen. In fact New Orleans or Miami may just go another 50+ years without seeing anything as potent as what these cities saw in 2005, and 1992 respectively. So the fact I see some predicting possible doom and gloom for some city when we barely have an invest is simply irrational and not going with the odds.

Bottom-line:
Chances are if you see a blob or invest it is NOT going to develop. I think it is about time we are all rational and go with historical odds sound statistical reasoning.

]

gator,
lets hope the next 5 weeks stay clear for our part of the world, as far as i am concerned sept 15 to nov 1 is prime time for SE florida. look, its really easy for people to make predictions when the wallet or job isn't at risk but thats why the board can be interesting to monitor.

[BocaGirl]

Gator,

You wrote:
"Bottom-line:
Chances are if you see a blob or invest it is NOT going to develop. I think it is about time we are all rational and go with historical odds sound statistical reasoning."

My take is that tropical systems aren't rational beings. They don't pay attention to historical odds or sound statistical reasoning. A system can pop up out of nowhere, turn into a hurricane and make landfall like Humberto. Or a system that looks prime for development can fizzle for one of many reasons.

No amount of encouragement or discouragement by us helps or hinders the development of a system.

Sometimes I get the feeling that some of the posters here forget we're just observers when it comes to weather. They take it personally, almost too much so. They cheer on every swirl of clouds, every burst, every pop. Then when it doesn't happen…a storm doesn't materialize…they're let down.

We have a lot of season left, Gator. I hope you can relax and enjoy the rest of it, whatever happens.

BocaGirl

[Cryomaniac]

My take is that tropical systems aren't rational beings. They don't pay attention to historical odds or sound statistical reasoning. A system can pop up out of nowhere, turn into a hurricane and make landfall like Humberto. Or a system that looks prime for development can fizzle for one of many reasons.

Exactly, they can do wierd sh- and thats why I enjoy following what happens.

[Stephanie]

I think you make some good points gatorcane. HOPEFULLY, we will never witness a 2005 or 2006 season again in our lifetime. I do believe that we have become jaded and feel that "normal" should 15 - 20 storms a year.

You mean 2004 and 2005.

I'd take 2006 anytime.

My Bad - thanks!

[Downdraft]

I think every system is an entity upon itself. Dependent from birth upon factors it has zero control over. I neither wish for their development nor afraid of it when it happens. I don't personalize systems like some do in here. I think calling those unfortunate enough to be in it's path "its victims," or sounding depressed when it doesn't head your way is immature. Hurricanes are not serial killers and all of us who live in their path could qualify for own Darwin award nominations just because we choose to live here. A season is just that a season. It's not a hockey game and keeping score is about as silly as yelling its a fish forget it. Nature doesn't need us to cheer it on and it doesn't need us to think we are so arrogant we can simply ignore it. Year after year no matter how much rationale explanation you give some people they just don't get it. You are never overdue for a storm in your area and you are never safe even if you just had one. The odds reset every year with every storm and you can't wish it to come anymore than you can wish it to go away. I hope in my lifetime I never see another 2004 in Central Florida or 2005 anywhere. Since I can't control any of it I never consider any season great or any season a bust. One season one storm at a time and given the history of our area it's just as silly to only worry from June 1st to November 30th. Some major storms with cold cores have struck from the Gulf every month of the year.