Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

The Dvorak numbers are all over the place here; SSD has 2.0 (30 kt), CIMSS has 3.3 (50 kt)

It's a very big storm

Correct, and I think the 35 knot estimate is a bit low considering the shape and formation of the storm. I am guessing it is really about 45 knots right now.

[Buck]

Maybe 50mph at 11pm. But the NHC will probably be a bit conservative and go with 45mph or stay put.

[HenkL]

A floater east of Karen (11.5N 38.0W) had 26 knots at 21Z.

[JTD]

I have to say that I am not impressed by the satelite presentation of Karen as seen here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

IMO, the infrared pic looks even worse:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Also not impressive on the water vapor either:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

[Cyclone1]

I have to say that I am not impressed by the satelite presentation of Karen as seen here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

IMO, the infrared pic looks even worse:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Also not impressive on the water vapor either:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Personally, I am very impressed by this system. It's very large, which may make it look worse than it actually is. IE, Florence.

[terrapintransit]

The Weather Channel has this thing (KAREN) as a fish after 5 days..........

[RL3AO]

The Weather Channel has this thing (KAREN) as a fish after 5 days..........

TWC uses the NHC forecast so it won't ever be different.

[terrapintransit]

No wonder it always seems the same

[cycloneye]

Convection is increasing near and over the low center.

[cycloneye]

25/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.3W T2.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean

Did Karen moved a little south of the 5 PM position of 11:1n? Or this SSD position is not correct?

[CrazyC83]

25/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.3W T2.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean

Did Karen moved a little south of the 5 PM position of 11:1n? Or this SSD position is not correct?

Probably a center relocation.

[deltadog03]

Luis, Karen is running a little south of the NHC positions. I fully expect some kind of NW movement just not sure when it occurs. I have posted this before, but I feel its important to the track. IF you look at all of the cyclones out there this year only one of them was even a TS. (before Karen) I guess my point is we have seen recurves on models this year before, but until one happens I just don't trust it. This should remain a weak maaaaybe a mdt. tropical storm and I look for it to continue to head west or wnw until we see it strengthen considerably or when it gets to about 50-55W.

[HURAKAN]

Looking pretty good tonight!!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070926 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 0000 070926 1200 070927 0000 070927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 40.4W 11.8N 43.5W 13.3N 46.5W 15.1N 49.4W
BAMD 10.9N 40.4W 11.5N 42.7W 12.6N 44.7W 14.1N 46.4W
BAMM 10.9N 40.4W 11.6N 42.9W 12.7N 45.3W 14.1N 47.4W
LBAR 10.9N 40.4W 11.6N 42.7W 12.7N 45.2W 14.2N 47.5W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000 071001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 51.8W 18.8N 56.1W 20.0N 59.0W 20.4N 61.2W
BAMD 16.0N 47.6W 19.0N 49.1W 21.7N 49.5W 24.7N 49.7W
BAMM 15.6N 49.0W 17.9N 51.5W 19.7N 53.0W 21.3N 54.0W
LBAR 15.7N 49.3W 18.3N 51.4W 20.7N 52.4W 23.8N 52.0W
SHIP 55KTS 56KTS 56KTS 58KTS
DSHP 55KTS 56KTS 56KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 38.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$
NNNN

Moving now west at 280 degrees.The BAMS model has it more west than in the afternoon run,now at 20.4n-61.2w.

[Derek Ortt]

the motion is closer to 275-270... but they are using a slightly longer time period to derive the 280

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You can see the shear 8 degree's north of it, also 5-8 degree's west. If it moves to fast it will be sheared...IF it plays its cards and moves slow and waits for trough to move out, it could make it.

[punkyg]

Good evening jellyfish
wow karen looking good tonight maybe it'll strengthin at 11pm
maybe they'll bump it up to 50mph.

[Gustywind]

Genearous wobble or relocation....

[punkyg]

Genearous wobble or relocation....

What do you mean?
is it moving alittle south of the forcast point?

[Gustywind]

Amazing size for a tstorm at this early stage...Karen is in shape huge structure