Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
A exposed center is a sign of wind shear winning the battle... any further development can be halted.
Anyways, I still think in a Karen reaching hurricane status in any moment, but no for long
Anyways, I still think in a Karen reaching hurricane status in any moment, but no for long
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URNT15 KWBC 262324
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 25 20070926
231500 1350N 04300W 6958 03206 0120 +072 +072 131054 055 035 011 00
231530 1352N 04302W 6956 03208 0120 +072 +072 132054 055 034 012 00
231600 1354N 04303W 6959 03206 0112 +078 +078 131051 053 033 010 00
231630 1356N 04305W 6958 03208 0114 +076 +076 130050 050 033 007 00
231700 1358N 04306W 6959 03206 0111 +079 +079 128049 049 031 007 00
231730 1400N 04307W 6958 03210 0115 +078 +078 127048 049 032 008 00
231800 1402N 04309W 6957 03215 0112 +082 +082 130044 045 034 007 00
231830 1404N 04310W 6958 03214 0110 +086 +086 138045 046 032 009 00
231900 1406N 04311W 6957 03217 0116 +082 +082 135044 045 032 009 00
231930 1408N 04313W 6957 03216 0113 +084 +084 139042 044 033 007 00
232000 1410N 04314W 6957 03214 0111 +085 +084 139043 044 033 007 00
232030 1412N 04316W 6957 03215 0110 +086 +086 143043 043 033 005 00
232100 1414N 04317W 6957 03216 0117 +082 +082 137046 047 034 006 00
232130 1416N 04318W 6956 03219 0126 +076 +076 129049 049 035 004 00
232200 1418N 04320W 6956 03219 0128 +076 +076 126051 052 036 008 00
232230 1420N 04321W 6955 03224 0130 +076 +076 124051 051 038 007 00
232300 1422N 04323W 6955 03222 0135 +072 +071 125045 047 038 007 00
232330 1425N 04324W 6955 03221 0134 +072 +072 125043 044 036 007 00
232400 1427N 04325W 6956 03219 0133 +072 +072 124045 046 035 008 00
232430 1429N 04327W 6958 03218 0141 +067 +067 122044 046 034 009 00
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 25 20070926
231500 1350N 04300W 6958 03206 0120 +072 +072 131054 055 035 011 00
231530 1352N 04302W 6956 03208 0120 +072 +072 132054 055 034 012 00
231600 1354N 04303W 6959 03206 0112 +078 +078 131051 053 033 010 00
231630 1356N 04305W 6958 03208 0114 +076 +076 130050 050 033 007 00
231700 1358N 04306W 6959 03206 0111 +079 +079 128049 049 031 007 00
231730 1400N 04307W 6958 03210 0115 +078 +078 127048 049 032 008 00
231800 1402N 04309W 6957 03215 0112 +082 +082 130044 045 034 007 00
231830 1404N 04310W 6958 03214 0110 +086 +086 138045 046 032 009 00
231900 1406N 04311W 6957 03217 0116 +082 +082 135044 045 032 009 00
231930 1408N 04313W 6957 03216 0113 +084 +084 139042 044 033 007 00
232000 1410N 04314W 6957 03214 0111 +085 +084 139043 044 033 007 00
232030 1412N 04316W 6957 03215 0110 +086 +086 143043 043 033 005 00
232100 1414N 04317W 6957 03216 0117 +082 +082 137046 047 034 006 00
232130 1416N 04318W 6956 03219 0126 +076 +076 129049 049 035 004 00
232200 1418N 04320W 6956 03219 0128 +076 +076 126051 052 036 008 00
232230 1420N 04321W 6955 03224 0130 +076 +076 124051 051 038 007 00
232300 1422N 04323W 6955 03222 0135 +072 +071 125045 047 038 007 00
232330 1425N 04324W 6955 03221 0134 +072 +072 125043 044 036 007 00
232400 1427N 04325W 6956 03219 0133 +072 +072 124045 046 035 008 00
232430 1429N 04327W 6958 03218 0141 +067 +067 122044 046 034 009 00
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat ... -B1_bw.jpg
Nice shot of the whole Atlantic basin,Africa,and east Pacific!!!
Nice shot of the whole Atlantic basin,Africa,and east Pacific!!!
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
When the link opened,click over "satellite intl",and then clik again over the basin you want to see...
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
HUC wrote:http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/intl/ir_ICAO-B1_bw.jpg...
Nice shot of the whole Atlantic basin,Africa,and east Pacific!!!
The link or bookmark that you used has taken you to a location that has changed.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
remove the ... from the end of the url
moderator edit needed.
moderator edit needed.

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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models
WHXX04 KWBC 262328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM KAREN 12L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 26
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.1 43.1 295./ 9.9
6 12.4 44.2 283./11.1
12 12.9 45.2 297./10.8
18 13.6 46.2 305./12.6
24 14.3 47.4 300./13.5
30 14.9 48.4 299./10.7
36 15.4 49.5 298./11.8
42 16.0 50.4 304./10.4
48 16.5 50.9 310./ 7.3
54 16.7 51.8 283./ 8.4
60 17.1 52.7 293./ 9.7
66 17.4 53.6 291./ 9.2
72 17.7 54.3 292./ 7.2
78 18.1 55.6 285./13.1
84 18.4 56.4 293./ 8.2
90 19.1 56.9 326./ 8.4
96 19.5 57.5 305./ 6.4
102 19.9 57.5 345./ 3.9
108 20.1 58.1 295./ 6.2
114 20.5 58.8 298./ 7.7
120 20.8 59.1 315./ 3.4
126 20.9 59.8 280./ 6.8
18z GFDL.Look how far west it goes.I think that chads graphic has the green line of GFDL updated.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM KAREN 12L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 26
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.1 43.1 295./ 9.9
6 12.4 44.2 283./11.1
12 12.9 45.2 297./10.8
18 13.6 46.2 305./12.6
24 14.3 47.4 300./13.5
30 14.9 48.4 299./10.7
36 15.4 49.5 298./11.8
42 16.0 50.4 304./10.4
48 16.5 50.9 310./ 7.3
54 16.7 51.8 283./ 8.4
60 17.1 52.7 293./ 9.7
66 17.4 53.6 291./ 9.2
72 17.7 54.3 292./ 7.2
78 18.1 55.6 285./13.1
84 18.4 56.4 293./ 8.2
90 19.1 56.9 326./ 8.4
96 19.5 57.5 305./ 6.4
102 19.9 57.5 345./ 3.9
108 20.1 58.1 295./ 6.2
114 20.5 58.8 298./ 7.7
120 20.8 59.1 315./ 3.4
126 20.9 59.8 280./ 6.8
18z GFDL.Look how far west it goes.I think that chads graphic has the green line of GFDL updated.
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HUC wrote:
http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat ... 1_bw.jpg...
Nice shot of the whole Atlantic basin,Africa,and east Pacific!!!
Quote:
The link or bookmark that you used has taken you to a location that has changed.
IT'S WORK WHEN YOU CLICK OVER THE LEFT BAR
http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat ... 1_bw.jpg...
Nice shot of the whole Atlantic basin,Africa,and east Pacific!!!
Quote:
The link or bookmark that you used has taken you to a location that has changed.
IT'S WORK WHEN YOU CLICK OVER THE LEFT BAR
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:they've been in the NE quad... check where the center is compared to the convection... the center is about 20-30NM west of the convective activity
I see what you are talking about. I've been following the wind direction which only went SE at the end of last set. But looking at the flight path, I can see that Karen has a large center.
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
tolakram wrote:remove the ... from the end of the url
moderator edit needed.
Heh, shoulda thoughta that... Yep that's the problem. Anyway, that's an excellent shot, HUC!
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URNT15 KWBC 262334
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 26 20070926
232500 1431N 04328W 6954 03226 0132 +077 +077 123039 040 033 009 00
232530 1433N 04329W 6958 03221 0128 +080 +078 128041 043 033 007 03
232600 1434N 04331W 6956 03224 0136 +074 +074 122039 040 999 999 03
232630 1435N 04333W 6957 03222 0132 +077 +073 119037 038 999 999 03
232700 1434N 04335W 6956 03222 0128 +080 +071 127035 036 032 005 03
232730 1433N 04337W 6956 03222 0127 +081 +068 126037 038 034 004 00
232800 1431N 04338W 6958 03219 0129 +079 +066 121038 039 033 004 00
232830 1429N 04339W 6957 03219 0125 +080 +069 120039 040 033 003 03
232900 1427N 04339W 6957 03216 0123 +081 +067 120037 037 033 002 00
232930 1425N 04340W 6955 03219 0123 +077 +075 121040 041 032 002 00
233000 1423N 04341W 6955 03216 0121 +079 +070 125038 040 031 002 00
233030 1422N 04341W 6956 03214 0119 +080 +071 127039 040 030 000 00
233100 1420N 04342W 6956 03210 0120 +075 +074 121043 044 031 001 00
233130 1418N 04343W 6958 03211 0119 +075 +075 125044 046 032 000 00
233200 1416N 04344W 6956 03211 0116 +078 +075 130043 044 033 000 00
233230 1414N 04344W 6957 03208 0107 +084 +076 136043 044 032 000 00
233300 1412N 04345W 6957 03206 0114 +075 +075 139041 044 032 002 00
233330 1410N 04346W 6960 03200 0112 +077 +076 135044 046 032 005 00
233400 1409N 04346W 6955 03204 0109 +074 +074 144045 046 036 007 00
233430 1407N 04347W 6957 03199 0087 +088 +088 148039 043 041 011 00
Another shot at the center.
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 26 20070926
232500 1431N 04328W 6954 03226 0132 +077 +077 123039 040 033 009 00
232530 1433N 04329W 6958 03221 0128 +080 +078 128041 043 033 007 03
232600 1434N 04331W 6956 03224 0136 +074 +074 122039 040 999 999 03
232630 1435N 04333W 6957 03222 0132 +077 +073 119037 038 999 999 03
232700 1434N 04335W 6956 03222 0128 +080 +071 127035 036 032 005 03
232730 1433N 04337W 6956 03222 0127 +081 +068 126037 038 034 004 00
232800 1431N 04338W 6958 03219 0129 +079 +066 121038 039 033 004 00
232830 1429N 04339W 6957 03219 0125 +080 +069 120039 040 033 003 03
232900 1427N 04339W 6957 03216 0123 +081 +067 120037 037 033 002 00
232930 1425N 04340W 6955 03219 0123 +077 +075 121040 041 032 002 00
233000 1423N 04341W 6955 03216 0121 +079 +070 125038 040 031 002 00
233030 1422N 04341W 6956 03214 0119 +080 +071 127039 040 030 000 00
233100 1420N 04342W 6956 03210 0120 +075 +074 121043 044 031 001 00
233130 1418N 04343W 6958 03211 0119 +075 +075 125044 046 032 000 00
233200 1416N 04344W 6956 03211 0116 +078 +075 130043 044 033 000 00
233230 1414N 04344W 6957 03208 0107 +084 +076 136043 044 032 000 00
233300 1412N 04345W 6957 03206 0114 +075 +075 139041 044 032 002 00
233330 1410N 04346W 6960 03200 0112 +077 +076 135044 046 032 005 00
233400 1409N 04346W 6955 03204 0109 +074 +074 144045 046 036 007 00
233430 1407N 04347W 6957 03199 0087 +088 +088 148039 043 041 011 00
Another shot at the center.
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URNT15 KWBC 262344
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 27 20070926
233500 1405N 04348W 6960 03198 0081 +097 +093 140033 033 046 011 00
233530 1403N 04348W 6957 03204 0080 +098 +087 136037 040 045 008 00
233600 1401N 04349W 6956 03203 0072 +104 +097 130036 037 047 008 00
233630 1400N 04350W 6954 03209 0074 +105 +096 127038 042 046 011 00
233700 1358N 04350W 6960 03207 0077 +105 +094 116034 038 049 011 00
233730 1356N 04351W 6957 03210 0089 +098 +092 108036 037 048 010 00
233800 1354N 04352W 6959 03208 0083 +103 +089 108032 033 049 014 00
233830 1352N 04352W 6963 03202 0081 +103 +089 104026 029 048 016 00
233900 1350N 04353W 6955 03209 0101 +086 +086 093032 040 048 015 00
233930 1348N 04354W 6955 03208 0094 +088 +088 100053 055 045 016 00
234000 1346N 04355W 6956 03204 0092 +087 +087 112048 052 042 009 00
234030 1344N 04355W 6955 03202 0090 +084 +084 123047 049 042 007 00
234100 1342N 04356W 6958 03196 0086 +084 +084 128055 058 044 007 00
234130 1340N 04357W 6960 03189 0074 +091 +091 134052 055 043 007 00
234200 1339N 04358W 6958 03193 0072 +093 +093 141053 055 047 006 00
234230 1337N 04358W 6959 03189 0065 +094 +094 139052 053 051 006 00
234300 1335N 04359W 6953 03192 0069 +090 +090 141057 058 050 006 00
234330 1333N 04400W 6955 03188 0066 +091 +091 144060 060 050 005 00
234400 1332N 04400W 6959 03181 0057 +097 +097 142058 059 051 007 00
234430 1330N 04401W 6954 03183 0052 +097 +097 139059 061 053 009 00
61 kt FL, 53 kt SFMR...
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 27 20070926
233500 1405N 04348W 6960 03198 0081 +097 +093 140033 033 046 011 00
233530 1403N 04348W 6957 03204 0080 +098 +087 136037 040 045 008 00
233600 1401N 04349W 6956 03203 0072 +104 +097 130036 037 047 008 00
233630 1400N 04350W 6954 03209 0074 +105 +096 127038 042 046 011 00
233700 1358N 04350W 6960 03207 0077 +105 +094 116034 038 049 011 00
233730 1356N 04351W 6957 03210 0089 +098 +092 108036 037 048 010 00
233800 1354N 04352W 6959 03208 0083 +103 +089 108032 033 049 014 00
233830 1352N 04352W 6963 03202 0081 +103 +089 104026 029 048 016 00
233900 1350N 04353W 6955 03209 0101 +086 +086 093032 040 048 015 00
233930 1348N 04354W 6955 03208 0094 +088 +088 100053 055 045 016 00
234000 1346N 04355W 6956 03204 0092 +087 +087 112048 052 042 009 00
234030 1344N 04355W 6955 03202 0090 +084 +084 123047 049 042 007 00
234100 1342N 04356W 6958 03196 0086 +084 +084 128055 058 044 007 00
234130 1340N 04357W 6960 03189 0074 +091 +091 134052 055 043 007 00
234200 1339N 04358W 6958 03193 0072 +093 +093 141053 055 047 006 00
234230 1337N 04358W 6959 03189 0065 +094 +094 139052 053 051 006 00
234300 1335N 04359W 6953 03192 0069 +090 +090 141057 058 050 006 00
234330 1333N 04400W 6955 03188 0066 +091 +091 144060 060 050 005 00
234400 1332N 04400W 6959 03181 0057 +097 +097 142058 059 051 007 00
234430 1330N 04401W 6954 03183 0052 +097 +097 139059 061 053 009 00
61 kt FL, 53 kt SFMR...
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URNT15 KWBC 262354
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 28 20070926
234500 1328N 04401W 6959 03175 0047 +098 +098 131057 060 055 008 00
234530 1327N 04402W 6957 03174 0045 +097 +097 133058 060 056 007 00
234600 1325N 04403W 6957 03172 0051 +090 +090 134061 063 056 008 00
234630 1323N 04403W 6955 03174 0045 +092 +092 139062 065 054 010 00
234700 1321N 04404W 6958 03166 0039 +094 +094 148065 067 054 011 00
234730 1320N 04405W 6958 03165 0034 +096 +096 148060 062 056 011 00
234800 1318N 04405W 6954 03169 0035 +095 +095 153057 059 056 011 00
234830 1317N 04406W 6958 03164 0031 +096 +096 155064 066 055 011 00
234900 1315N 04406W 6955 03164 0031 +094 +094 150064 065 055 013 00
234930 1313N 04407W 6952 03165 0030 +094 +094 152058 062 056 013 00
235000 1312N 04408W 6955 03164 0036 +093 +093 154058 062 054 016 00
235030 1310N 04408W 6957 03162 0034 +095 +095 150059 060 056 024 00
235100 1308N 04409W 6955 03164 0037 +091 +091 151055 060 061 026 00
235130 1307N 04410W 6960 03155 0035 +091 +091 154051 051 062 022 00
235200 1305N 04410W 6955 03158 0047 +079 +079 156052 054 059 023 00
235230 1304N 04411W 6954 03156 0041 +082 +082 164048 050 050 025 00
235300 1302N 04412W 6956 03159 0028 +093 +093 167041 042 048 010 00
235330 1300N 04412W 6961 03152 0015 +099 +099 167039 039 047 009 00
235400 1258N 04413W 6961 03150 0012 +100 +100 174040 042 045 006 00
235430 1256N 04414W 6958 03154 9997 +104 +104 175038 040 044 005 00
67 kt FL, 62 kt SFMR...almost, but not quite, a hurricane
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 28 20070926
234500 1328N 04401W 6959 03175 0047 +098 +098 131057 060 055 008 00
234530 1327N 04402W 6957 03174 0045 +097 +097 133058 060 056 007 00
234600 1325N 04403W 6957 03172 0051 +090 +090 134061 063 056 008 00
234630 1323N 04403W 6955 03174 0045 +092 +092 139062 065 054 010 00
234700 1321N 04404W 6958 03166 0039 +094 +094 148065 067 054 011 00
234730 1320N 04405W 6958 03165 0034 +096 +096 148060 062 056 011 00
234800 1318N 04405W 6954 03169 0035 +095 +095 153057 059 056 011 00
234830 1317N 04406W 6958 03164 0031 +096 +096 155064 066 055 011 00
234900 1315N 04406W 6955 03164 0031 +094 +094 150064 065 055 013 00
234930 1313N 04407W 6952 03165 0030 +094 +094 152058 062 056 013 00
235000 1312N 04408W 6955 03164 0036 +093 +093 154058 062 054 016 00
235030 1310N 04408W 6957 03162 0034 +095 +095 150059 060 056 024 00
235100 1308N 04409W 6955 03164 0037 +091 +091 151055 060 061 026 00
235130 1307N 04410W 6960 03155 0035 +091 +091 154051 051 062 022 00
235200 1305N 04410W 6955 03158 0047 +079 +079 156052 054 059 023 00
235230 1304N 04411W 6954 03156 0041 +082 +082 164048 050 050 025 00
235300 1302N 04412W 6956 03159 0028 +093 +093 167041 042 048 010 00
235330 1300N 04412W 6961 03152 0015 +099 +099 167039 039 047 009 00
235400 1258N 04413W 6961 03150 0012 +100 +100 174040 042 045 006 00
235430 1256N 04414W 6958 03154 9997 +104 +104 175038 040 044 005 00
67 kt FL, 62 kt SFMR...almost, but not quite, a hurricane
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Black dots appearing on IR. There seems to be an uptick in convection in the latest frame on the nhc website views. Also some pockets of dry air as well, however.
Last edited by JTD on Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
Tropics_Dude83 wrote:Black dots appearing on IR. There seems to be an uptick in convection in the latest frame on the nhc website views.
The most recent data had 69 kt FL winds and 62 kt SFMR - nearly (but not quite) a hurricane. 72 and 64 are needed it appears.
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:62 knot SFMR reading! With 67 knot flight level winds in the same ten minutes. Wonder if it is real or if they'll discount it?
I think it is real. That supports the current 60 kt intensity well. I think to get to a hurricane, the FL winds need to be at least 72 kt (78 to be safe considering the satellite data) and the SFMR at least 65 kt (70 to be safe).
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