INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Sanibel]

That twist east of the Bahamas is in the right place to be the remnants of Karen twisting up a separate system. Two systems in other words. Or it's an eddy.


When GFDL, a model that is known to over-intensify systems, keeps systems weak you have to pay attention. So far the systems GFDL has kept weak have been weak. GFDL is keeping 90L weak.

[HouTXmetro]

Hmmmm.... looks like the Globals are targeting SWLA, Upper TX

[Derek Ortt]

the remnants of Karen are still east of the Carib... that is hat the 0Z CMC is spinning up in 5 days

East of the Bahamas is the old 97L

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



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[jasons2k]

Tidbit from NWS HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

WATER VAPOR/IR INDICATING THE SYSTEM WEST OF KEY WEST GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED BUT STILL VERY MUCH COLD CORE.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... ion#AFDHGX

[Sanibel]

This looks like it has a better grip on the surface than TD10. Also a much better position over the loop current.

Why is it every time a system is forming near the Keys the radar goes out?

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion if anything is going to develop sub tropical or tropical it will be in the area that is west of the Keys right now.

['CaneFreak]

In my opinion if anything is going to develop sub tropical or tropical it will be in the area that is west of the Keys right now.

The NHC confirms this in their TWO:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Thunder44]

Unlike TD 10, it looks like a surface low will br further south, in the GOM. Sp I think it will get name, but it won't get too strong or tropical as long as that ULL is over or close to it.

[NateFLA]

I have to say, it is absolutely soaking in Gainesville today... looks like all the moisture is well N of the center of this invest.

[artist]

all I know is we have receieved almost as much rain as we did from Frances and Jeanne combined. If we receive much more we will be in trouble. There is almost a moat around our house at this point. We are in northern Palm Beach county. Wish lake O would have gotten as much.

[americanrebel]

What is the likely hood of the NHC and NOAA changing their plans and sending out a recon later tonight if this system keeps on getting organized like it is?

[Wx_Warrior]

72h 12z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif

[HURAKAN]

Not likely. RECON is already set for tomorrow. Moreover, it's nota threat to land in the next 24 hrs.



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[HURAKAN]

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[tailgater]

Seems to be rolling along to the west, I don't see it going north much, maybe even a little SW at the end as someone stated earlier. But IMHO just looking at Sat. loops it will be pure tropical. The T-storm firing now are currently warming the cold low, I do expect the convection to wan and then refire even more later. The area of dry air near the low is shrinking and shear looks to be weaking short term at least.
Check out this LOOP dail-uppers be ware.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... inTPW.html
maybe a little W---casting on my part but I DO NOT want any rain around here Saturday Night

[Ed Mahmoud]

Seems to be rolling along to the west, I don't see it going north much, maybe even a little SW at the end as someone stated earlier. But IMHO just looking at Sat. loops it will be pure tropical. The T-storm firing now are currently warming the cold low, I do expect the convection to wan and then refire even more later. The area of dry air near the low is shrinking and shear looks to be weaking short term at least.
Check out this LOOP dail-uppers be ware.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... inTPW.html
maybe a little W---casting on my part but I DO NOT want any rain around here Saturday Night

Not wanting to be accused of super awesome wonderful casting again, but if it were just a good rainstorm, I'd be all for it. Since the morning before Humberto made landfall, desert dry at my house save for some quick showers this past weekend.


Wonder what the odds are of the weekend cold front stalling overhead and whatever this is running up over the shallow cold dome. I remember East Pacific Hurricane Rosa, (or the mid-level center thereof) and how much rain that dropped with a shallow cold layer in place back around 1994 or 95.

[Portastorm]

Wonder what the odds are of the weekend cold front stalling overhead and whatever this is running up over the shallow cold dome. I remember East Pacific Hurricane Rosa, (or the mid-level center thereof) and how much rain that dropped with a shallow cold layer in place back around 1994 or 95.

Probably "remote" as there is no longer a cold front progged to even get close to southeast Texas this weekend.

[mightyerick]

it should be tropical. May be... the next hurricane???

[vbhoutex]

it should be tropical. May be... the next hurricane???

Very doubtful on both counts. Too much hostile environment ahead of it and forecasted for too much more than a windy rain event to happen it seems.