Early hurricane season predictions

[boca]

What is everyone's opinion on the predictions put out for hurricane season every year? I think their just predictions that I'll probably just take with a grain of salt and read purely for entertainment purposes.

[Cryomaniac]

Just because I can, I'm going to make an early prediction: 12/3/1

[DanKellFla]

The predicitons have to start somewhere. It used to be that predicting a storms path was nearly impossible. Now it really is a science. Seasonal preditions are in their infancy. With time the predictions will get better, just like path predictions got better.

[hcane27]

I think that, for the most part, the "seasonal" forecasts/predictions are produced by individuals or groups who earnestly believe that there is a scientifically supported process capable of determining these events in advance. It is obvious, especially over the last 3 years, that the process is not fully understood. But, to pass all of their efforts off as just some entertainment is itself is bit frivolous. If you examine the forecasts/predictions and find that the accompanying explanation and method is reasonable, then it seems that there should no reason to listen and follow. We could all learn something form the reams of paper used for the explanations .... As to whether or not they hold water, or are worth a grain of salt, that can only be determined after the fact. Either they are right or they are wrong. But in most cases, they are honestly trying to provide a service to those who read their outlooks.

[fci]

I was thinking of taking a hat putting slips of paper with numbers 6-20 in it and having my neighbor's three year old pick the number.
If I had access to a zoo I would have a monkey choose it but I don't think they allow that.

Ok, then; now you have my opinion of how accurate the science of predicting the number of Hurricanes.

Seriously, if one were to pick the "average" number of storms and used that each year I am certain that its accuracy would rival that of all the experts.

2007 was WIDELY predicted to be a very active season and it has not been.
Please don't cite the "number" of storms since there were a few that in some yeas would ever have received names. "Active" in my opinion connotes landfalling storms.

I am thrilled that the predictions did not come true (OK, those "politically correct" people need not come out the woodwork to lecture me on how bad Dean and Felix were for Mexico; I am aware and feel for those people).

Bottom line to me is that the "predictions" while entertaining; are pretty much worthless.
Go with average and you will usually be pretty close to correct with rare exception.

[gerrit]

Are there any stats on the predictions? I mean the predictions by scientists like Gray, Klotzbach etc.

[RL3AO]

My total guess for 2008 is 13 ± 3 named storms, 5 ± 2 hurricanes, 2 ± 1 major hurricanes. Like I said, just an educated (maybe?) guess.

[TSmith274]

They really might as well not even bother to predict seasonal activity. Pretty meaningless.

[Cryomaniac]

They really might as well not even bother to predict seasonal activity. Pretty meaningless.

Meaningless unless you trade in oil futures... [/cynic]

[Andrew92]

Well anything I say would be a guess, so I'm not going to put out any numbers for now, but if what I think happens will happen, it should be pretty active.

On a side note, Edouard and Laura are really sticking out to me. And not positively, I might add.

Did you know: If we use Laura next year, it will not be the first time in the Atlantic.

-Andrew92

[Jinkers]

Did you know: If we use Laura next year, it will not be the first time in the Atlantic.

-Andrew92

Well if we get to Laura, I hope it's a good one since it's my name...

[CrazyC83]

Did you know: If we use Laura next year, it will not be the first time in the Atlantic.

-Andrew92

Well if we get to Laura, I hope it's a good one since it's my name...

But what if you have Hurricane Laura at Category 5 strength aiming straight at you? Will you still think the same

[gigabite]

The moon pass hypothesis has taken a serious hit this year. There has been a major drop in frequency and correlation for the factor. I haven’t had time to crunch the numbers. It seems like a 50 percent drop in reliability. I believe this is due to the oscillation of the major axis of the earths orbital path.

Seems that as the earths orbit becomes more circular high pressure in the northern hemisphere increases which reduces the frequency of hurricanes and increases the easterlies in the tropics.

Any how the lunar analog for 2008 is 1959.
That relates to 11 total tropical storms 7 hurricanes 2 severe
Factoring in a 20 percent new technology factor
That gives 14 total storms 9 hurricanes 3 severe
Then there is the earths orbital oscillation which exceeds 2 au next year. That will allow more low pressure cells to form which will kick it up a notch probably in the severity range. So make that 4 sever instead of 3.