Thoughts on the Season to date

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Derek Ortt

Thoughts on the Season to date

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:49 pm

Just wanted to give my quick thoughts on the hurricane season to date:

Pre 2004, this would have been considered to ahve been a very active season. Two category 5 hurricanes is a very rare occurrance. Two cat 5 landfalls (by separate) was unprecedented

The Gulf coast again too it on the chin. Many landfalling tropical storms and a category 2 hurricane (which is what I beleive Humberto will be classified in the best track), which did about 500 million in damage.

Also, Oklahoma will most certainly remember this season. Afetrall, there was a rapidly intensifying tropical storm over the heart of Tornado Alley. Erin showed that Oklahoma should stick to tornadoes, as they cannot handle tropical cyclones well at all. Still do not have the final damage figures on that storm, but it will likely be the season's most destructive.

The EC so far has escaped any real impact. But do not become complacent. Things could change next season.
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#2 Postby gilbert88 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:10 pm

Easily the worst year for Veracruz* since 1992.

(A very densely populated Mexican state, where both Dean and Lorenzo made landfall.)
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#3 Postby Category 5 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:36 pm

Something else to think about.

We've only had 2 storms pass through the Caribbean this year.

What happened to both of them?
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#4 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:34 pm

We also tied a record for subtropical systems, including a pre-season storm. Off-season storsm are very rare. The seasons not over yet, either. November and December can hold surprised too.

1980 had two Novemeber hurricanes.

1994 is a good example, also. Strongest hurricane, and deadliest hurricane of the season formed in November, after a solid month of silence.

2003 saw two storms in October, no storms in November, and two storms in December.

2004's last storm formed and dissipated in mid October until Otto spun up in the last few hours of the season, extending into December.

We've learned from recent years that the hurricane season is NEVER over until December. Or January...
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#5 Postby Category 5 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:46 pm

1985: Juan and Kate.
1998: Mitch
1999: Lenny
2001: Michelle
2005: Wilma, Beta, and Delta

Don't let your guards down yet.
Last edited by Category 5 on Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#6 Postby cpdaman » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:00 am

since this is on season to date i would say that E of 90 longitude and N of 20 degrees latitude , the winds have been largely unfavorable any time a potential piece of convection tried to get going, and that in itself was rare

this obviously means Central and eastern gulf ( LA eastward and up the east coast have had a big breather this year) aside from a half hour of 40 mile an hour winds in tampa and a bit or erosion from STS Andrea

the question remains will it finish this way?
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#7 Postby artist » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:27 am

Derek - I have a question for you. In the off season what do you do? Work on research? Do you do any forecasting for the US just for fun during that time? If so I guess it would be a somewhat different skill set or not? Just wondering here. I know - I'm prying! :cheesy: Thanks
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#8 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:27 am

Of course we'd be remiss not to mention the two Category 5 hurricanes or Erin or Humberto, for sure, so, for those affected by these systems, the season was more than enough...

Still, if some continue to mention possible activity through December, well, that's their opinion, but, many, many seasons ended in October than November or December, so, there's a good chance that this one will end similarly...

Folks just need to get the 2005 season out of their minds - that was the exception, not the rule...
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#9 Postby fci » Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:47 pm

It seems that a lot of the younger members became "Tropics Aware" in 2005.
Thus, they think that it was typical which, as you said; is far from the truth.
Truth for MANY years was a season like 2007.

Pleasantly boring with just a few exceptions; the two cat 5 storms hitting virtually the same place and Humberto spinning up unexpectedly.
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#10 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:04 pm

Still, the ACE is quite low for it to be an active season. When all is said and done, that is a great measure of the energy the season put out and it is quite off the mark for what was forecast and for what we have seen in recent years.

Also, CSU gave a probability of 74% that a major hurricane would hit the U.S. It was about that high last season as well. I guess for two years in a row, the ~26% won out. Kind of balances out the 7 majors that hit in 2004 and 2005. So, with none this year, I guess the odds of one next year would be quite high; although seasons don't "act" like that, they know nothing of math.

I really do wonder what the media and the public in general are going to think when CSU issues their first forecast in December. You know it will have to be fairly high considering the lack of El Nino for next season and the warmer than avg Atlantic SSTs that continue to prevail overall. Still, it matters little what ANY entity forecasts 6 to 9 months out, they could get it right every year and it makes no difference in how we should prepare. Until someone can say, "A major hurricane will hit between New Orleans and Mobile within 5 days of August 15, 2010" than these seasonal forecasts are of little overall use. I challenge anyone out there to provide solid evidence of how these forecasts benefit the general public....

I am of the opinion that more effort should be placed on intensity forecasting and real time data at the coast when hurricanes hit. There is too little standardized data for wind, etc. after a hurricane passes. Look at 2004 and 2005 for prime examples...too many holes and people still want to know "was Katrina really a three at landfall?" We have to focus on what is out there when it forms and make sure we have the best forecasts and ground data possible.
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Re:

#11 Postby gilbert88 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:28 pm

fci wrote:It seems that a lot of the younger members became "Tropics Aware" in 2005.
Thus, they think that it was typical which, as you said; is far from the truth.
Truth for MANY years was a season like 2007.


Wrong. Not many seasons have featured two category 5's, let alone so close together.

Edit:

Going by your logic... 2004 was a "pleasantly boring" (ugh...) year for anyone not in Florida, since three of the big storms hit "virtually the same place".
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#12 Postby Category 5 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:11 pm

Frank2 wrote:Still, if some continue to mention possible activity through December, well, that's their opinion, but, many, many seasons ended in October than November or December, so, there's a good chance that this one will end similarly...

Folks just need to get the 2005 season out of their minds - that was the exception, not the rule...


There have been December storms in other years as well.
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#13 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:51 pm

Here's another way to view this season. If 95L is upgraded to a STS in post-seasonal analysis, we would have 14 NS. That's solidly above average. It wouldn't dispute the facts that we have seen several sheared systems, an anomalous TATL TUTT, and an unusually tranquil October (well below average for a La Nina season). On the other hand, I have seen evidence that the SFMR data from Felix was accurate. It indicated maximum 1-min sfc winds near ~165 kts (190 mph). It would not be surprising if the TPC bumps Felix's peak intensity to ~155-160 kts (~180-185 mph) in the final report. The high background pressures and rapid deepening rate would support those estimates. Even if they are wisely conservative (SFMR is a new method that experiences flaky moments) and raise the intensity to ~150 kts (~175 mph), that is extremely impressive in any season. If Erin is classified as a TS or STS over OK, that would be fascinating. Add rapid pre-shore intensification (Humberto and Lorenzo), two Category 5 hurricanes (and landfalls!), and possible subtropical upgrades in post-seasonal analysis. It is possible that 2007 will seem much more impressive (it is already unprecedented in some arenas) when the TPC makes the final calls per the tropical cyclone reports. Additionally, Derek (see above) suggested Humberto may be upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane (possibly ~85 kts) at its landfall in TX.

We have seen the following spree in the past three years:

-53 NS from 2004-2006 (even greater when you incorporate 2003's 16 NS and 2007's possible final totals)
-17 intense hurricanes from 2004-2007 (20 when you include 2003's Fabian, Isabel, and Kate)
-14 landfalling United States hurricanes from 2003-2007 (higher when you incorporate Ophelia '05 and tropical storms)
-7 landfalling intense United States hurricanes from 2003-2007 (Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). Each storm occurred within a two-year period (2004-2005). That is an extremely rare occurrence, even when you consider undercounted totals in historical records
-7 hurricanes impacted FL during 2004-2005 (we saw Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne in 2004, in addition to Katrina and Wilma)
-8 hurricanes struck the Gulf coast region during 2003-2007
-The Carolinas were struck by Isabel, Charley, Gaston, and Ophelia (all were hurricanes)

We can't forget the disastrous effects, too. You do NOT see Katrinas and Ritas every year. I'm slightly dismayed that too some people judge a season's activity and "dullness" by major hurricane landfalls in the United States after '03, '04, and '05. I would like people to express their opinions here. What do you personally expect? Do you expect four hurricanes hitting FL during a short period? Do you expect a spree of intense hurricanes striking the United States?

2004 and 2005 (plus 2003) were the EXCEPTION. Period. I agree that several negative factors during 2007 were unusual in a La Nina year, but I think some people should lower their expectations. We should not expect a Katrina every year. Again, it's not -removed- that annoys me; it's the unreasonable expectations displayed on this board by some folks. This is not directed personally toward Mark or others that have made good points about the unusually negative factors against development in 2007.
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:22 pm

make that 8 hurricanes for Florida in 2004-2005

Rita did bring hurricane conditions to the lower Keys

Also, Add Alex to the list of Carolina canes... highlights just how active 2004 and 2005 were. Those are NOT NORMAL YEARS
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#15 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:25 pm

Category 5 wrote:2005: Wilma and Beta

Don't let your guards down yet.


Don't forget Delta. Even though it was transitioning to extratropical, it did quite a number on the Canaries ($364 million and 19 dead).
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#16 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:02 pm

2007 is active by all stretch of the imagination, despite the lower than normal ACE. Problem is, we're too used to what happened in 2003, 2004, and 2005. They were active seasons and should be classified in their own category. 2005 was the deadliest hurricane season since 1998 and one of the deadliest on record. 1998 had nearly 20,000 fatalities, mostly from Mitch and Georges. 2005 fatalties were from Katrina and Stan.
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#17 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:51 pm

I am just not seeing how 4 or 5 hurricanes this season is active. That is below even pre-1995 levels. Add to that a slew of sub-tropical weaklings and few weak but highly sheared (to the point of no return) truly tropical storms and I think the picture is quite clear: 2007 was not a typical post-1995 La Nina hurricane season. No one is saying that it would have been more active had the U.S. be pulverized again, that would have made it a more active hurricane landfalling year. That's a different story for another day. And, where are the other major hurricanes that were forecast for this season? Didn't the forecasts indicate anywhere from 3 to 5 majors? We had two within three weeks and the season rolled up from there.

It is quite true the season was interesting, we had hundreds of pages dedicated to invests that never made it off the ground and weak TDs and weak TSs that "might" become something big but never did. Oh boy, the season was definitely interesting but I would gather that most people on this board and around the nation did not expect this kind of season- afterall, the experts predicted quite a high chance of a MAJOR hurricane hitting the United States and it has not come to pass- not even close. This is not a complaint, it is an observation. What was predicted and what has actually happened are not aligned- I think it's that simple. There's nothing more to it than that. Now it is ironic that the Southeast could use a tropical cyclone to bail them out of the drought- looks like we'll have to wait until next year for that possibility.
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Re:

#18 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:09 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:I am just not seeing how 4 or 5 hurricanes this season is active. That is below even pre-1995 levels. Add to that a slew of sub-tropical weaklings and few weak but highly sheared (to the point of no return) truly tropical storms and I think the picture is quite clear: 2007 was not a typical post-1995 La Nina hurricane season. No one is saying that it would have been more active had the U.S. be pulverized again, that would have made it a more active hurricane landfalling year. That's a different story for another day. And, where are the other major hurricanes that were forecast for this season? Didn't the forecasts indicate anywhere from 3 to 5 majors? We had two within three weeks and the season rolled up from there.

It is quite true the season was interesting, we had hundreds of pages dedicated to invests that never made it off the ground and weak TDs and weak TSs that "might" become something big but never did. Oh boy, the season was definitely interesting but I would gather that most people on this board and around the nation did not expect this kind of season- afterall, the experts predicted quite a high chance of a MAJOR hurricane hitting the United States and it has not come to pass- not even close. This is not a complaint, it is an observation. What was predicted and what has actually happened are not aligned- I think it's that simple. There's nothing more to it than that. Now it is ironic that the Southeast could use a tropical cyclone to bail them out of the drought- looks like we'll have to wait until next year for that possibility.

I certainly agree with several points. I addressed the surprisingly inactive October in my previous posts. Additionally, I concur with your synopsis about the weak systems - the large TUTT was unusual during the peak of a La Nina season. October is usually one of the more active months in a Nina season. This year seems like an active version of 2006 (i.e. season quickly started, followed by an inactive end in October and November). That is quite anomalous for a Nina year. Typically, you see the greatest activity in September, October, and November. I certainly agree with that salient point. I think the forecasts were quite poor (total NS) in 2005 and 2006, and they have been fair (not great) in 2007. Again, I agree. I just think too many people have become accustomed to a major hurricane landfall every year. I agree that the probabilities are greater in an active season, but there have been several cases where the United States went unscathed. Look at 2001. You didn't see any hurricanes (including +Category 3) in the United States, but we saw 15 NS. My original post wasn't directed toward your truthful analyses.

Edit: Did you read the other portions of my post? I think 2007 may seem slightly more "active" (from your perspective) when the final tropical cyclone reports are released from the NHC.
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#19 Postby cpdaman » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:24 pm

I hear the la nina years and late activity mentioned alot together

i was wondering if there is actually a decent sample number (years of la nina of moderate or more strength) to get a solid correlation

or does data only go back like 20 years and (4 la nina's)

and then some people say well la nina's and neutral years

maybe as long as it is a moderate to strong el nino there will be less total storms, but this is really less important since it only takes ONE

however with that being said i wonder if there is any change in the percentage of storms that form and strike the U.S (i.e things the insurance companies would like to know) in el nino vs. neutral. vs. la nina years
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Re: Thoughts on the Season to date

#20 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:53 pm

MiamiensisWx-

You bring about excellent points and sum up the reality of the season well. I believe we will see some upgrades here and there from the NHC over the winter months but it still won't help to explain what happened...that is what I am trying to learn more about. How, in the face of the extraordinary predictions, has it come to this? I like to know more about what drives a particular hurricane season and find clues to any potential patterns. It is all part of this amazing science. Something unexpected happened after Felix and the season was never the same since. It reminds me of a great basketball game when your favorite team is expected to put on a clinic against the opponent and they do for about 6 minutes of the game and then just blow it from then on. Sports and the tropics have nothing in common except the expectations and the "let downs". In that regard, they can have a lot in common.
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