Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Cyclone1]

Circulation more visible than ever!

[Blown Away]

If that is the LLC near 16N/70.8W, then it looks almost completely exposed and moving NW. I may be wrong but it is not looking as impressive as we might think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, but who knows if SFWMD will artifically lower the lake again if under a TS or hurricane warning

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks a possible shift to a more wnw course as well. I thought maybe that I might see some shear affecting the system as well on the visible loop coming in from the west.

[Blown Away]

yeah, but who knows if SFWMD will artifically lower the lake again if under a TS or hurricane warning

Even thinking they would do that makes me steam!! I know your being sarcastic, they might just do it.

[wxman57]

I was just plotting the model data and notice an "OFCI" plot. That's an unofficial NHC "interpolated" forecast track based on some preliminary data someone there entered. Note that as a preliminary track, the forecaster just went right between the shallow and mid-layer BAM models. But also note that the dynamic models all turn the system northward to the east of the non-dynamic BAM models.

On satellite, it looks about the same as it has the past day or two now. Exposed low-level swirl with convection sheared off to the east. Winds 10-15 kts around the swirl. Not a TD yet, probably another 24-36 hours to go at least.

[hial2]

Do we have a depression yet? All season for the most part models have not been too accurate with "could be" systems..Until a depression forms,I'll take models with a grain of salt..

Burned once, shame on you,burned twice, shame on me...burned beyond that number you're a masochist.....

[Steve H.]

Let's see if we get a storm first. The models are "trending east" but where will the focus of energy end up. Looks like the Euro and NOGAPS bring it to the NW Carib/western Cuba, then "hop" over Florida and develop near the eastern seaboard (at least the NOGAPS). GFS is showing something similar, where it shows an elongated area of low pressure that snaps like a rubber band to the eastern seaboard. The HRF and GFDL are a little disturbing for me on the east coast of Florida. They both develop a cane, but seem too far east from what the Globals show. Again, I think we need to wait another day or two to see where this develops.

[Blown Away]

On this path the mostly exposed LLC is moving WNW to NW towards western Haiti. Maybe the LBAR is going to get it right?

[HURAKAN]

[Vortex]

This looks to be a major flood event for Haiti....

[cycloneye]

This looks to be a major flood event for Haiti....

It may be a tragic massive flooding event for them.Also the Dominican Republic will get it.Mudslides are a very big threat in DR with those big mountains.

This is what Haiti and DR will see.

[Vortex]

Buoy well east of LLC has very gusty winds and a rapidly falling pressure.


Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
6-meter NOMAD buoy
ARES payload
15.01 N 67.5 W (15°00'20" N 67°29'44" W)

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.5 °F

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 20:15 UTC:

[HURAKAN]

Compared to Alberto, Arlene, Lee, Grace, TD 10 (2004 & 2007), and many others, it looks pretty much like a tropical depression.

[bvigal]

2nd low has been indicated on radar looping for almost 24hrs, moving W. (I asked about it last night) That would explain the 67W buoy's readings now.

[Vortex]

This may go from TD to TS very quickly!

This is also a large storm.

[wzrgirl1]

:uarrow:

This may go from TD to TS very quickly!

This is also a large storm.

vortex do you think we will be under the gun with this and if so when?

[wxman57]

2nd low has been indicated on radar looping for almost 24hrs, moving W. (I asked about it last night) That would explain the 67W buoy's readings now.

That buoy is 200nm away from the nearest radar, making the radar beam height over 30,000 feet above the surface. Any rotation you're seeing on San Juan radar is well above the surface. Here's the link to the beam height/width calculator:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html

[Vortex]

A close call..I think the next 24 hours will be crucial for S.FL.

(1)A NW/NNW track would favor Haiti, Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

(2)A WNW/NW track would favor Jamaica,Central/E Cuba, Western Bahamas and Extrme SE Florida.

(3)A W/WNW would favor Jamaica, Caymans, Western Cuba,Keys and S.FL.

At this point I'm going with a track between 2 and 3 and bring it over central Cuba and into the Florida Straits.

*Theres also a chance it remains S of Cuba for several days before being ejected NE late next week.