Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Chacor]

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

[HURAKAN]

723
WTNT21 KNHC 301437
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W...NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 77.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Thunder44]

I don't see any true signs of LLC reforming north of Cuba yet. The LLC over Cuba still appears to be maintain some identity looking at radar imagery and surface obs. According to CIMSS at 12z shear is increasing just to the North and West the center now. There may be too much shear to allow it to reform further north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-2.html

[Chacor]

WTNT31 KNHC 301438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES
...435 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
BY TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[tgenius]

Looks like Channel 7 jumped the gun for the TS Watches.. figures it would be them to do it.

[alienstorm]

WSVN Channel 7 really s****!

They broke into programming at 10:30 AM stating that a TS Watch was being issued.

[Sanibel]

We need the rain desperately.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Noel needs to get the word to start moving NW.

[curtadams]

Well, even if the gyrations bring something to FL it won't be anything tropical. Check out this shear forecast. Very high shear over all of Florida for the entire forecast period. Any tropical system approaching Florida this week will be destroyed almost instantly.

[CrazyC83]

Didn't the center reform over water?

[jlauderdal]

WSVN Channel 7 really s****!

They broke into programming at 10:30 AM stating that a TS Watch was being issued.

its channel 7, expect nothing but hype and unreliable information.

[Evil Jeremy]

Guess what? The models are all over the place again!

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_16.gif

Anyways, that cone is still to close for confort.

[ronjon]

Interesting situation unfolding here - the LLC is moving (forming?) off the south coast of eastern Cuba while the MLC continues to spin just of the northeast coast. Which one will win out? Possible options:

1) New LLC forms underneath MLC
2) MLC migrates over LLC off the south coast
3) LLC and MLC never couple and the storm dies

[Vortex]

Noel should emerge off the cuban coast this afternoon and into the NW carribean for 12-18 hours before turning N over or just E of florida...Surface reports, radar, and Hi-res imagery all support this idea.

[chadtm80]

[artist]

Derek is going with the north. See Tropical Analysis for his latest as of about an hour ago.

[Vortex]

Actually I think the CMC looks about right on...

[CrazyC83]

Derek is going with the north. See Tropical Analysis for his latest as of about an hour ago.

And I am in agreement with Derek here. I think the real center is just offshore to the north.

[dtrain44]

As Wxman points out, even if the LLC (if there is one intact right now) tracks over or near FL, that will still leave most of the worst weather to the E, unless the LLC reforms to the ENE. Again, even if this hits Florida, I would expect the primary impact to be beneficial rainfall.

[Thunder44]

Interesting situation unfolding here - the LLC is moving (forming?) off the south coast of eastern Cuba while the MLC continues to spin just of the northeast coast. Which one will win out? Possible options:

1) New LLC forms underneath MLC
2) MLC migrates over LLC off the south coast
3) LLC and MLC never couple and the storm dies

I think the third option becomes more likely later today, if option #1 doesn't happen soon.