Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Tropics Guy]

Regardless of a decoupled system, the convection continues to build towards the WNW and I think that South Florida will start having heavy squalls tomorrow. That, plus the wind gradient, which will only increase, should warrant some kind of TS watches this evening for the SE Fla coast. Plus if the system gets stacked again, there is still some potential for strengthening in the Florida Straits before it hits the shear zone to the north.

TG

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurricane watches? Lete be serious. TS Watches at 5 are almost a given, but Hurricane watches?

[Bgator]

Ok, i keep looking at the loop, and the spin north of Cuba actually seems to be diminishing, i see a well defined spin still in Cuba heading WNW, approaching the 78W line soonish.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301752
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...WEAKER TROPICAL STORM NOEL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 50 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
BY TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...77.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[msbee]

Pretty much all the models are in line between the SE FL coast and Andros..Just a little in either direction and Noel is over SFL or Andros

what's the time line for this?

[gatorcane]

Hurricane watches? Lete be serious. TS Watches at 5 are almost a given, but Hurricane watches?

If the new center is indeed of the coast of cuba then yes. Many of storms have ramped up quickly over the FL staits.....

[ronjon]

Molasses Reef showing sustained at 30 kts and gusting to 34 kts.

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
VENICE 76 78 50/ 16/ 19 1018.2R
25.7N 85.7W 80 82 70/ 23/ 29 1016.9S 9/ 8 7/ 8
DRY TORTUGAS NOT AVBL
SAND KEY 79 40/ 25/ 27 1015.7R
SOMBRERO KEY 80 83 60/ 22/ 24 1014.2S
LONG KEY 80 79 60/ 20/ 23 1014.2R
MOLASSES REEF 82 82 70/ 30/ 34 N/A

[Bgator]

They lowered winds to 40MPH. Though its all estimation as no recon is out there right now due to being ovber Cuba.

[artist]

I think the center has formed right under where I have circled here - if you run a 10 image loop from this link by clicking on the center of where I have the center marked at this link -

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Anyone else?

[Steve H.]

I guess I don't understand the thinking of posters on the visible sat pix. C adams is correct in that the LCC is clearly visible near the south coast of Cuba, but it looks like its taking a turn to whe WNW or NW as it crawls slowly along. It may be there at least another 6-10 hours before emerging off the north coast. This is indeed the LCC, and a healthy one at that. Patience folks! We all know that these seem to take forever to get across Cuba, but Noel should survive.

[DESTRUCTION5]

They still like Vortex's Center

[HURAKAN]

Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...21.0 N...77.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.

[cycloneye]

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 50 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
BY TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

They continue to follow the inland LLC.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

I think the center has formed right under where I have circled here - if you run a 10 image loop from this link by clicking on the center of where I have the center marked at this link -

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Anyone else?

Artist the red x is there.

[BobHarlem]

If the new center is indeed of the coast of cuba then yes. Many of storms have ramped up quickly over the FL staits.....

It's not, there is no "new center" the one over Cuba is still very strong. So far the NHC's track seems to be verifying, that area off the north coast isn't organized at all. Noel is weaker at 2PM.

Tropical Storm Watches, but this thing isn't going to be a hurricane, dry air to the west, lots of shear coming up, and the front to the north. It falling apart is way more likely than Hurricane watches.

[Bgator]

I wish a pro met would be here to give us there take, and if it will even survive and restrengthen.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the center has formed right under where I have circled here - if you run a 10 image loop from this link by clicking on the center of where I have the center marked at this link -

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Anyone else?

Artist the red x is there.

http://img115.imageshack.us/my.php?image=noelcenterhr7.jpg

[artist]

I think the center has formed right under where I have circled here - if you run a 10 image loop from this link by clicking on the center of where I have the center marked at this link -

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Anyone else?

Artist the red x is there.

Thanks ! I think I finally got it! lol

[curtadams]

Ok, i keep looking at the loop, and the spin north of Cuba actually seems to be diminishing, i see a well defined spin still in Cuba heading WNW, approaching the 78W line soonish.

If you look closely you see a new area of convection E of the LLC, over Cuba. I think some of the moist air from the LLC is being diverted to the new convection, weakening the old /L/L/C MLC (oops!)