Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[ericinmia]

Noel appears to be firing some nice convection just west of the NHC's LLC....

The interesting part is that this is over land. Should have been interesting what this would have produced had Noel not gone on vacation "a la Ernesto" in Cuba. Although I have serious doubts of this making it over 50-60mph as it passes South Florida, I can see potentional for it to make a run up to a cat 1.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

P.s. That is if it finally gets going nw... before land/shear/etc take a large enough toll on Noel that it opens into a depression/wave

[Cyclone1]

Anybody notice or care where Noel is headed after it's encounter, close or otherwise, with Florida. NHC has a direct hit on Nova Scotia.

Well, by that point it'll be a fast moving extratropical low. At most, NS will get only 3-4 hours of stormy conditions. It'll be moving seemingly 60 mph according to the NHC's track.

But it could/likely have hurricane force winds.

True...

[bocadude86]

"I think that the NHC is being bullish on the system. Noel is only a few hundred miles away from Florida, the shortwave that should pick it up is over a day again, their recurve is one that only happens once in a lifetime, their latest cone is on the far left side of the entire model avrage, they have been talking about putting up a watch for FL for 24 hours now, but they have not done so, and they expect this storm to just miss us?"

Do you mean their cone is on the far right side?

[Evil Jeremy]

thanks for correcting me on that. Anyways, I think they are still putting to much judgement on the GFDL, which has almost completly been wrong with this system so far.

[destruction92]

Okay, enough of this...in the latest advisory, Noel is forecast to be BETWEEN Andros Island and the SE Florida coastline...HOW CAN they NOT post a tropical storm watch??? Watches are to be issued 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. We are closing in on 24 hours now.

Seriously, there are no tropical storm watches posted anywhere BUT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS. Would it not make sense to issue a tropical storm watch SOMEWHERE BY NOW....

Someone please cure my Confuseditis, but is it true that whenever any watches or warnings are posted for the SE Florida coastline, the South Florida economy (i.e. tourism, government office closings, etc.) goes down temporarily and loses money. If this is a money issue, by no means should FINANCIAL reasons ever be placed in front of SAFETY reasons.

AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NOEL TO MAKE A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL FOR PETE'S SAKE! IT'S ON THE STORM2K HOMEPAGE!

[chadtm80]

[gatorcane]

well Florida *should* be on the good side of this system.....but I would be issuing tropical storm watches just because the pressure gradient is going to be so tight...

and once Noel gets over water he can really ramp up.....

NHC should hope that Noel does not take the left side of the cone or else alot of people are going to wonder why watches were not issued.

But the NHC keeps shifting the cone left because Noel does not want to turn yet......

[Evil Jeremy]

I agree with destruction (for once) on the fact that watches should be up by now. All the kids in my school are saying "Were not in a watch or warning zone, its not going to affect us". Florida is not prepared for a possible storm. Well, most of Florida isnt ready.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Okay, enough of this...in the latest advisory, Noel is forecast to be BETWEEN Andros Island and the SE Florida coastline...HOW CAN they NOT post a tropical storm watch??? Watches are to be issued 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. We are closing in on 24 hours now.

Seriously, there are no tropical storm watches posted anywhere BUT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS. Would it not make sense to issue a tropical storm watch SOMEWHERE BY NOW....

Someone please cure my Confuseditis, but is it true that whenever any watches or warnings are posted for the SE Florida coastline, the South Florida economy (i.e. tourism, government office closings, etc.) goes down temporarily and loses money. If this is a money issue, by no means should FINANCIAL reasons ever be placed in front of SAFETY reasons.

AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NOEL TO MAKE A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL FOR PETE'S SAKE! IT'S ON THE STORM2K HOMEPAGE!

and........it just simply continues to move west, west, west into the carib in 2 to 3 hours maybe sooner

[gatorcane]

imagine the possibility of it making it about 75 miles more west and then hooking due north up the South Florida corridor....strengthening as it moves over the Straits....

that is the left side of the cone possibility....

the fact that Ernesto didn't strengthen still blows my mind and we should not expect Noel to do the same...not with the oceanic heat content in the FL straits.

[rainydaze]

Okay, enough of this...in the latest advisory, Noel is forecast to be BETWEEN Andros Island and the SE Florida coastline...HOW CAN they NOT post a tropical storm watch??? Watches are to be issued 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. We are closing in on 24 hours now.

Seriously, there are no tropical storm watches posted anywhere BUT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS. Would it not make sense to issue a tropical storm watch SOMEWHERE BY NOW....

Someone please cure my Confuseditis, but is it true that whenever any watches or warnings are posted for the SE Florida coastline, the South Florida economy (i.e. tourism, government office closings, etc.) goes down temporarily and loses money. If this is a money issue, by no means should FINANCIAL reasons ever be placed in front of SAFETY reasons.

AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NOEL TO MAKE A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL FOR PETE'S SAKE! IT'S ON THE STORM2K HOMEPAGE!

You made me laugh (in a good way)

[Evil Jeremy]

One of my teachers relies on me for all the hurricane and storm info. I talked to her earlier today, showed her some graphs, loops, and other data, and she knew there was no way that Noel would make that kind of turn.

[cpdaman]

so much uncertainty w/ this storm right now IMO

if it stayed on a 280/285 heading it may emerge into the caribean, however i think i am looking at signs of a possible center re-location now or a slow down and turn along more of a 315 or so heading

who knows

[stormchazer]

I am not often a poster anymore and I do not believe anyone would call me a w*shcaster, but does anyone besides me wonder if we are seeing a weaker Ivan scenario here? I mean in that even though it has to turn North, it is stubbornly refusing to do so?

You got to love TC? Just when you got them figured out, they go "PSYCHE"! I know our Mets here and the NHC have it figured out, but Noel sure seems to be trying to add some mystery tot he projected track.

[eastcoastFL]

i am not happy with the nhc right now. i hope they know something that we cant see.

[RL3AO]

Noel is going to make the NHC look like geniuses or morons in the next 24-36 hours.

[gatorcane]

One of my teachers relies on me for all the hurricane and storm info. I talked to her earlier today, showed her some graphs, loops, and other data, and she knew there was no way that Noel would make that kind of turn.

Its very possible that Noel can make that kind of turn.....

Look at the turn Wilma made....just shot NE on a dime...

[Evil Jeremy]

I am giving SFL a 10% chance of direct impact right now. Watches should be up later tonight.

[gatorcane]

I want everybody to look at this loop. This WV loop shows the short wave that should turn Noel N and then NE.....

See it digging down and moving East now over Texas? That is going to deflect Noel.....

that short wave is really trucking ESE now.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Brent]

One of my teachers relies on me for all the hurricane and storm info. I talked to her earlier today, showed her some graphs, loops, and other data, and she knew there was no way that Noel would make that kind of turn.

Not saying that it will, but it definitely can in the right setup. Wilma did something very similar around the same time of year as this and remember Charley? It'd be very unusual for a storm not to make a sharp right turn given that it's the end of October and there's very obviously a huge trough to the north of this.