Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Chacor]

Hurricane warnings is stretching it a bit.

[ExBailbonds]

Yes, unlikely that the NHC will post any watches for Florida - the system seems to be tracking due north (and eventually northeast), so, any affect here (other than the gradient wind) should be minimal...

Sorry, folks...

I feel the same but we abought to find out so i hope we dont have to eat crow. but i am rather confident we wont have a feathered diner.

Well no crow for the moment anyway.

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

Hurricane warnings is stretching it a bit.

perhaps but all it takes if for Noel to take a wobble west....we know how unpredictable these things are...

[Evil Jeremy]

Rats, chacor beat me to it lol. Anyways, it does say that we might still need a Tropical Storm Warning later today. Also, the wall does indeed seem to be breaking down, and the rain is on the way.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311504
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 23 20071031
145000 2242N 07734W 9711 00284 0032 +230 +230 159033 034 040 000 00
145030 2242N 07733W 9709 00286 0033 +229 +229 161034 035 039 001 00
145100 2242N 07731W 9713 00285 0034 +229 +228 163035 036 038 000 00
145130 2242N 07730W 9711 00287 0035 +227 +227 160033 034 037 000 00
145200 2242N 07728W 9716 00283 0035 +225 +225 155033 034 038 001 00
145230 2242N 07727W 9709 00289 0036 +224 +224 156033 034 039 002 00
145300 2242N 07725W 9714 00284 0036 +224 +224 162036 038 039 001 00
145330 2242N 07723W 9712 00288 0037 +225 +222 167040 041 039 002 00
145400 2242N 07722W 9714 00286 0038 +223 +223 164037 038 039 001 00
145430 2242N 07720W 9715 00286 0039 +220 +220 162035 038 037 000 00
145500 2242N 07719W 9713 00289 0041 +216 +216 165036 038 038 004 00
145530 2242N 07717W 9708 00292 0040 +216 +216 171032 034 037 005 00
145600 2242N 07716W 9712 00288 0041 +207 +207 171029 032 039 012 00
145630 2242N 07714W 9719 00283 0041 +202 +202 155024 025 044 019 03
145700 2242N 07713W 9540 00444 0043 +191 +191 149032 034 047 017 03
145730 2242N 07711W 9590 00400 0045 +189 +189 145038 044 045 022 00
145800 2242N 07710W 9572 00416 0045 +192 +192 152039 040 058 006 00
145830 2242N 07708W 9564 00427 0044 +202 +202 153035 039 044 014 00
145900 2242N 07707W 9576 00414 0042 +210 +210 150040 043 042 011 00
145930 2242N 07705W 9570 00418 0043 +207 +207 151037 042 041 009 00

Max SFMR wind: 58 kt

[tgenius]

I think that rain will be over south florida within the next few hours.

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL STRENGTHENS AFTER MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL. AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

a ts warning would make some people here very happy and satisfied although the end result is all the same, some wind and squally weather, no big deal really. Halloween lives in NE fort lauderdale regardless, 40 mph winds arent going to shut things down in my neck of the woods.

[HURAKAN]

820
WTNT41 KNHC 311505
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED
AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN
SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/7. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR NOEL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SURFACE CIRCULATION
OF NOEL...THEY ALL TAKE EITHER NOEL OR A NEW EXTRATROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE BETTER ASSOCIATION OF
NOEL'S CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PRESUMES THAT NOEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION. THE TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL
TRACKS FOR NOEL AND THE GFS TRACK FOR THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS DISTINCTION MAY
BECOME LESS CLEAR AS NOEL APPROACHES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE
WARNING IS CALLED...WINDS NEAR THE LOW-END TROPICAL STORM/GALE
THRESHHOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NWS FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 22.7N 78.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.9N 78.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 76.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 73.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 67.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 51.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

370
WTNT31 KNHC 311456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL STRENGTHENS AFTER MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL. AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


932
WTNT21 KNHC 311457
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL. AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 78.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 78.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 78.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N 76.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 73.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 55.0N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cpdaman]

Looks like Noel spit out a low level vortex traveling NNW at about 23.3N 78.8W or is this the LLC?, apparent on the floater visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

Some the new recon reports indicates the LLC is near there. If that's it turned more towards the NW.

The plane just fixed a center due about 27 miles due west of the last fix.

that reading the plane took was not just west but south or WSW since it was 22.42 / 78.36

and the earlier fix was 22.50 78.10

so in about 120 min the center fix changed WSW? could it be the second reading (22.42/ 78.36 was not an actual center and the plane just flew a bit west of it)

because the 9 am reading would extrapolate based on nnw movement of around 23 N for a center

[NcentralFlaguy]

Only forecast to move .1 degree more west...hmmm we shall see.

[jlauderdal]

I think that rain will be over south florida within the next few hours.

im in miami lakes right now and it has already been raining today in squalls so if its rain you want you go it.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED
AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN
SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the continued direction, it may get closer to the coast off of Miami than earlier anticipated (possibly Bimini), but it still being a sheared system most of the heavy weather will still be to the east of the center. It will obviously be a closer call, and it may be prudent to put up TS warnings at 5:00, especially being Halloween with a lot of kids being outside in the evening with the gusty winds.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Thunder44]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED
AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN
SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

There was just a SFMR report of 58kt in deep convection. I guess it didn't make it into this advisory.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311512
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 24 20071031
150000 2242N 07704W 9525 00449 0037 +209 +209 158042 044 041 008 03
150030 2242N 07702W 9281 00686 0044 +187 +187 161043 045 045 014 03
150100 2242N 07701W 9234 00734 0054 +173 +173 147029 032 055 030 00
150130 2242N 07659W 9211 00754 0054 +172 +172 149042 049 055 037 00
150200 2242N 07658W 9245 00726 0055 +182 +182 156041 047 045 023 00
150230 2242N 07656W 9228 00745 0056 +180 +180 153034 039 046 033 00
150300 2242N 07654W 9253 00721 0058 +177 +177 162041 042 043 015 00
150330 2242N 07653W 9227 00745 0057 +181 +181 155039 043 044 014 00
150400 2241N 07651W 9245 00727 0055 +184 +184 149041 044 048 012 00
150430 2241N 07650W 9248 00725 0056 +180 +180 154040 041 048 015 00
150500 2241N 07648W 9244 00732 0058 +180 +180 154039 040 044 014 00
150530 2241N 07647W 9242 00734 0055 +195 +195 153038 039 042 010 00
150600 2241N 07645W 9244 00732 0056 +193 +193 159035 036 041 008 00
150630 2241N 07644W 9242 00736 0056 +197 +197 160038 039 040 007 00
150700 2241N 07642W 9239 00738 0054 +204 +202 156039 039 040 005 00
150730 2241N 07641W 9245 00732 0053 +206 +204 157039 040 038 005 00
150800 2241N 07639W 9239 00738 0053 +205 +205 152037 038 039 004 00
150830 2241N 07638W 9243 00734 0056 +198 +198 140038 040 040 005 00
150900 2241N 07636W 9256 00721 0057 +192 +192 153044 046 037 008 03
150930 2242N 07635W 9252 00725 0056 +197 +197 156047 049 041 010 03

[hiflyer]

Well...while we are getting some breeze (grin) here in SoFla light squalls are now also approaching from the east at a good clip....nothing major...what you would call fast moving hit and miss showers...the if you don't like it wait 5 minute type. GRLevel 3 also showing a solid return off the MIA radar about 200 miles SE....looks like part of Noel starting to peak in. Just glimpses of the same off the EYW radar.

[NcentralFlaguy]

perfect shot of the exposed center.

[HURAKAN]