OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

One possibility not mentioned that I kinda sense: a looping track SW then SE then back E...that would be more climatologically favorable in December than a due west track...

[gatorcane]

One possibility not mentioned that I kinda sense: a looping track SW then SE then back E...that would be more climatologically favorable in December than a due west track...

There is absolutely nothing to cause this. There is a trough progged to push into the SE US but not for at least 7 days and how far south it gets is uncertain. The pattern is very much like summer except there *should* be SW to NE at 40-50K+ shear out ahead of Olga to tear it apart before it even has a chance to make a run at the U.S.....

I predict it last another 2-3 days and the fizzles because of high shear and the mountainous terrrain of the Greater Antilles and it won't reach the Western Caribbean...

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is only the third time that a season had both a documented pre-season storm and a documented post-season storm? (The others are 1887 and 2003, correct?)

I thought 2005 had Ana and Zeta...

[Ed Mahmoud]

So, we can add Olga to Erin and Humberto as storms predicted by JB before any other pro-mets...

[RL3AO]

This is only the third time that a season had both a documented pre-season storm and a documented post-season storm? (The others are 1887 and 2003, correct?)

I thought 2005 had Ana and Zeta...

2003 had Ana. 2005 had Arlene on June 8.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the LLC is near 19N/64.5W moving W, don't see WSW yet. The current position is well N of the models.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Evil Jeremy]

The shear is more relaxed now than people thought it would be earlier today, and Olga (what an ugly name!) is more north than all of the previous model runs suggested..... Except for the BAMD. Intresting.

[Ptarmigan]

15 storms have formed now. 2004 had 15 storms form, but it was in a short time and had a high ACE. 2007 is truly a strange year. It started early and now another storm has formed in December. 2007 never disappointed me.

[Ptarmigan]

all is it really Dec. 10th...

or August 10th...

Models showing Olga moving west all the way across the Caribbean into Central America from the Atlantic????

This is crazy..

Look:

Olga looks more impressive than some TS I have seen.

[Jam151]

I'm glad they upgraded, although it looks more tropical to me. It's certainly no less tropical than past classified tropical storms such as Allison 01, Fay 02, Bill 03, Tammy 05, or Barry 07.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

15 storms have formed now. 2004 had 15 storms form, but it was in a short time and had a high ACE. 2007 is truly a strange year. It started early and now another storm has formed in December. 2007 never disappointed me.

Just like 2003...although we still need one more storm (Pablo) to match that.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ugh. Why are people questioning the NHC's designation of Olga?

SAMSUB core data and other information does not support tropical status. All data definitely supports a subtropical storm.

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=99359

forecast #1

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 110231
TCMAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
0300 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLGA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 65.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 0SE 0SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 0SE 0SW 425NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 65.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 0SE 0SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.4N 70.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.0N 73.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.8N 76.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[sargeabernathy]

JB really nailed this one early. As did that Canadian Model .... though from what I understand it was rather bullish with it at first.

I also give props to Mr. Masters.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop

In November he made a 20% guess that something might form in early December when shear dies down. Not a direct guess to something forming, but he gave out the possibility. So Touchee to him as well.

This is an amazing storm. Olga, my dear, you're welcome to come in but the party has been over for 10 days. The only ones left here are Dean and Felix, but only because they got super drunk and collapsed in the corner. Um ... Go ahead and eat some of the finger foods I suppose...

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 110232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM AST MON DEC 10 2007

...LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DE
MANZANILLO AT THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLGA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...EAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
300 MILES...485 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE
CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT...AND
NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1006.4 MB...29.72 INCHES.

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110255
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM EDT MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH BROAD...SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER. DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IT IS BEING DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. NOAA BUOY
41043 NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS TWICE REPORTED 1-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF
33 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS...WHICH SUGGESTS TROPICAL-STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE STANDARD SURFACE ELEVATION OF 10
METERS. BASED ON ALL THIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM OLGA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. OLGA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND STEER OLGA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND
IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS.

OLGA CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...
WITH OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
SUPPRESSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THIS
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY
DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION BY PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA...SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST OLGA TO WEAKEN TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH BY 36-48 HR... WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
DISSIPATION IN 60 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR OLGA TO SURVIVE FOR 48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WFO SAN JUAN...IT WAS DECIDED THAT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE NOT NEEDED FOR PUERTO RICO SINCE THE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 18.5N 65.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 18.5N 67.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 70.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 73.8W 25 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 76.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Evil Jeremy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this last beyond the 3 days expected by the NHC.

[Cyclone1]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this last beyond the 3 days expected by the NHC.

I kinda hope so, then Olga would be the first Atlantic tropical cyclone in history to be active on my birthday. (Dec 13)




...


Shut up, you know it's cool to have a storm on your birthday.

[cycloneye]