SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
757 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-160700-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
757 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007
...SQUALL LINE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
A STRONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THE BIG BEND REGION AND EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NATURE COAST FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM...THEN
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA FROM AROUND 2 AM THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL FEATURE OLGA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
THE SQUALL LINE AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ALL THE ACTIVITY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A CONTINUED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. THESE INCREASING WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FROM THE REMNANTS OF OLGA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE COAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING
AND BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS DURING THIS EVENING. WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY
INTO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO
POSSIBLY 12 FEET WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DEVELOPING STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE
HIGH AND ROUGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES
ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 30 OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NATURE COAST. THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL YIELD COLD WIND CHILLS AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PLAN ON BRINGING TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS
SUNDAY EVENING. REMEMBER TO BRING PETS INDOORS AS WELL. RESIDENTS
PLANNING TO BE OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD
PREPARE ACCORDINGLY. BRING SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING...AS THEY
WILL INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR JACKET. CHILDREN
WAITING FOR BUSES MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRESSED IN WARM
CLOTHING TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
&&
FOR ALL YOUR LOCAL WEATHER NEEDS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY.
&&
RD
$$
