SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

It didn't do much here in the Galleria area.

Baytown area looks like it is getting rocked and the line should bow out from there.

[Yankeegirl]

I didnt get much of anything here either this morning... I heard a few rumbles but that was about it...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I didnt get much of anything here either this morning... I heard a few rumbles but that was about it...

On to Louisiana...




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29...

VALID 311557Z - 311800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SERN TX AND SWRN LA NEXT FEW
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN TX INTO
EXTREME SWRN LA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE
FARTHER EAST OVER SRN LA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SERN TX SEWD THROUGH
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER WEST A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL
TX SWD THROUGH SERN TX THEN SWWD TO NEAR LAREDO. A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUES FROM
NRN LA SWWD THROUGH SERN TX AND INTO THE NWRN GULF MOVING ENE AT 45
TO 50 KT. WITH PRIMARY WARM SECTOR STILL OFFSHORE...MOST STORMS ARE
STILL ELEVATED WITH THE MAIN SHORT TERM THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A 50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL NWD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT INTO PARTS
OF SRN LA...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL WARM SECTOR MOVING ONTO THE LA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER SERN TX MAY ALREADY BE NEAR
SURFACE BASED WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. VWP
DATA SHOW LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT COMPLETELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT FARTHER INLAND NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29499260 29539317 29529378 29309442 28809523 28869573
29649535 30209431 30219341 30039264 29739246

[Diva]

We just had pea-sized hail here in North Orange that lasted for about 2 minutes.

[southerngale]

Do we really need TWO threads to post about our weather? It's winter... so why not use the one in the winter forum? If not that one, why not just use this one? I keep seeing stuff repeated in both... just seems unnecessary. I've been posting about this morning's storms in the other thread, then see all this here.

Anyway, pretty intense storms this morning, but I already posted about it over there. lol

[PTrackerLA]

Getting concerned we might have quite a wind event with the squall line. Winds have gusted to 43 mph at the airport and 46 not too far from here outisde of any thunderstorms. The line has intensified to my west and it's really gusting out there, we'll see what happens.

[Diva]

Do we really need TWO threads to post about our weather?

LOL...I was wondering the same thing. I was confused as to where to post. Since it was severe weather, I kinda thought it should go here....but what do I know?

[jasons2k]

We have usually posted "general" weather events, i.e., heat, storms, rain, wind, floods, and severe weather in this thread regardless of the month or season.

We have posted winter-only events, i.e., freezes, artctic outbreaks, ice/snow/sleet, etc., in the winter weather thread.

I personally wish we just had the USA weather forum for all 12 months, winter weather included, then we wouldn't duplicate.

[PTrackerLA]

Thankfully not much severe weather around here but it did come down hard. Picked up around 1.5" which brings us to around 8" for the month. Could this be the year we DON'T go into a drought by March?!

[southerngale]

Thankfully not much severe weather around here but it did come down hard. Picked up around 1.5" which brings us to around 8" for the month. Could this be the year we DON'T go into a drought by March?!

It's amazing that y'all have had a drought when we've had such a surplus of rain since May 2006 (a severe drought in spring 2006 preceded all this). It seems like it's always raining, with little breaks in between the rain, and no time for the ground to dry. The only time I can recall a decent break in the rain was a few weeks this past fall. I don't remember if it was 2 or 3 weeks or exactly how long, but we actually went a while without rain and my yard dried up nicely for the first time in like forever! I'm so blasted tired of rain... I know it's selfish, but I wouldn't mind a mini-drought. I need my yard to be very dry so I can redo the driveway and sidewalk and get my house on the market. It's just ridiculous how it never dries out enough.

Glad y'all didn't get anything severe out of that mess.

[PTrackerLA]

Well actually we were right around normal rainfall for 2007, but it seems that we've had many droughts develop during the spring since the late 90's. This year is certainly starting out wet with more rain coming this weekend into mardi gras . We seem to be stuck in a very progressive winter-time storm pattern and it sure has been gloomy, except for today. Looking forward to spring around here .

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is odd...

The SPC says the Houston area will have NO Thunderstorms tomorrow: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

But at the same time our local NWS office is showing a 60% PERCENT Chance of storms: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0&map.y=80

Which one will be right I wonder?

[jasons2k]

That is odd, but if I were a betting man, my money would be on the local forecast. Here is the last part of the aviation discussion:

SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

[srainhoutx]

This is odd...

The SPC says the Houston area will have NO Thunderstorms tomorrow: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

But at the same time our local NWS office is showing a 60% PERCENT Chance of storms: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0&map.y=80

Which one will be right I wonder?

SPC mentioned this yesterday...

SPC AC 011708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST FRI FEB 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN US WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD LATE
TONIGHT AS AN ELONGATED ZONE OF WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A STRONG
SFC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GRADUALLY EWD ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE
TX COASTAL PLAINS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S F BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SE TX WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ELEVATED AND A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2008

[Extremeweatherguy]

The SPC has now extended the slight risk area for tomorrow further southwestward...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

...If this verifies, then we will need to watch out for a strong squall line to develop and then push toward SE Texas by Tuesday morning/afternoon.

Things could definitely get interesting.

[JenBayles]

I was wondering about that myself. Just having this kind of heat this time of year ahead of a front usually results in some interesting weather. I'm really enjoying the thaw today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SOME STRONG STORMS NOTED TO OUR W/NW THIS MORNING. ALL THIS DEV-
ELOPMENT RACING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT BE AS STRONGLY CAPPED AS PROGS WOULD LEAD
US TO BELIEVE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE/BRISK LLEVEL
JET ALREADY IN PLACE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE ACTI-
VITY THIS AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE. AND SO HAVE ADD-
ED THE MENTION OF SEVERE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SSW CORNER OF SE TX
FOR THIS AFTN. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAG-
ING WIND/LARGE HAIL. CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND ALL
THE STORMS WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A LITTLE THERE
AFTER AS THE COLD FRONT LAGS. THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE A
LOT ON THE QUIET/DRY SIDE AS A SERIES OF WEAK REINFORCING FRONTS
FOLLOW IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
WITH TIME. THIS TO PRODUCE TEMPS NEAR OUR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SET TO RETURN EN MASSE BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN
EJECTING UPPER LOW/TROF ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD WTX.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Major outbreak of severe weather including violent long tracked tornadoes likely today NE of our region.

The first of many weather watch boxes has been issued this morning for NC TX extending SW to just north of our northern counties. Rarely issued SPC high risk outline up for portions of AR into MS and TN where long tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible. Feb. and March tornadoes outbreak in this region tend to be high fatality events as they occur usually in the evening and overnight and many persons are still in winter mode and not spring severe weather mode. Additionally structures tend to not have basements or safe rooms in this part of the country when compared to those areas of the great plains.

Powerful trough ejecting into TX this morning with extreme amounts of wind energy noted from the surface up through 250mb will result in a significant outbreak of severe weather across a large part of the southern plains, MS Valley, and SE US. Surface low has been forced over NW TX where 1002mb pressures are noted with a southward extending dryline down toward Del Rio. Large wedge warm sector extends from E of the dryline across most of TX into the SE US.

Large upper trough will eject across the plains today with surface low moving/building from NW TX to AR by this evening and surface dryline sweeping E across C and E TX this afternoon. As deep layer ascent overspreads the warm and very moist warm sector for early Feb. numerous thunderstorms will develop. Over SE TX shear profiles are more than favorable for severe weather with 0-6km shear of 50-60kts including 850mb winds of 55kts and 250mb winds near 120kts this morning. However the air mass is capped per CRP and LCH soundings. IAH GFS forecast soundings shows capping holding until early afternoon and then rapidly eroding as strong lift and surface convergence along the dryline approaches. Surface heating will also help in weakening the cap. Expect thunderstorms to develop NW of the region and backbuild SSW into at least the northern half of SE TX this afternoon. Extent of capping noted on the CRP sounding appears to be too strong to be overcome and this will extend at least into the SW 1/4th of our region effectively cutting off thunderstorms chances in that region. Will be awaiting the 12Z soundings to asses cap intensity again at both CRP and LCH and see how the models are handling the warm layer. The tornado threat should remain removed to our northeast where deeper veering wind profiles are noted and track of surface low will help back low level winds increasing low level shear values. In our region veering of the surface and 850mb wind is not that great.

Main threats will be large hail and wind damage along and NE of a line from roughly Galveston to Sugar Land to Hempstead. It should be noted that if the cap weakens more than expected the threat will extend more to the SW and become more widespread to the NE. For now expect a broken line of strong storms with isolated severe weather along the line as the dryline pushes across the region this afternoon and evening.

After today mostly clear and dry with mild temps through the weekend.

[jasons2k]

If the sun can peek out, I think we will bust through the cap. I think the Hwy. 6 corridor (just barely south & west of Houston) will be the dividing line.

[vbhoutex]

If the sun can peek out, I think we will bust through the cap. I think the Hwy. 6 corridor (just barely south & west of Houston) will be the dividing line.

Right now, at least in the Galleria area, it doesn't appear that we are going to get the sun to warm it up and break the cap. Maybe it will happen much later this afternoon when the dry line is much closer to us.