2008 Severe Weather Thread

[wbug1]

A severe line of storms is now moving through the birmingham and tuscaloosa, al area.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LIPSCOMB...BESSEMER...

* UNTIL 400 AM CST

* AT 323 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VALLEY
CREEK...OR 6 MILES WEST OF BESSEMER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHADES CREEK GREENWOOD

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VESTAVIA HILLS...TRUSSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN BROOK...MIDFIELD...LIPSCOMB...LEEDS...IRONDALE...
HUEYTOWN...HOOVER...HOMEWOOD...GARDENDALE...FULTONDALE...
FORESTDALE...FAIRFIELD...CENTER POINT...BRIGHTON...BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT...BIRMINGHAM...BESSEMER...

until 4 am CST

at 4:02 am CST

the cell(s) east of Birmingham, Al is now showing multiple 65 dbz echos.

Motion SE at 55 mph.
according to NWS, looks more ESE to me

[wbug1]

Multiple Severe TS warnings now to area directly to the west of Atlanta, Ga. Storm motion has changed to mainly to the east at between 60-70 mph. Atlanta, Ga could be affected by severe TS.

000
WUUS52 KFFC 261106
SVRFFC
GAC077-261145-
/O.NEW.KFFC.SV.W.0028.080226T1107Z-080226T1145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 645 AM EST

* AT 603 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
19 MILES NORTH OF SARGENT TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SARGENT TO 21
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARGENT...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MADRAS...NEWNAN...GRANTVILLE...EAST NEWNAN...THOMAS CROSSROADS...
CANONGATE AND SENOIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR GEORGIA.

At 7:16 am EST, wsbtv news in Atlanta, Ga reports that power has been knocked out to 54,000 households
in the metro Atlanta area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe my memory isn't perfect, but it seems the most impressive severe storms around HOU are the ones not predicted. I recall late Spring before last, driving up I-45 towards Spring, beautiful thunderhead with big anvil, purplsih/greenish base and a suspicious lowering to the SW corner. Rain hit just as I reached Beltway 8, hail was about marble sized, but loud, and I was wondering how much bigger it would have to get to star the windshield or ding the sheet-metal, and I don't recall any chatter on the AFD or evening newscasts the night before.


Anyway, if Euro is right, March 4th has potential for an active day in the SE USA


Negatively tilted trough with a vigorous low level circulation.



GFS is more neutrally tilted, and a day faster, but also holds the promise post-frontal of some winter wx in Northern Lousiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

[RL3AO]

Something about big primary days that bring out the severe weather huh?

[wbug1]

Mahmoud, well let's see how your long term prediction pans out.

Looks like a strong derecho just moved through the Atlanta, GA area. Damage reported near Lakeside high school area in east Atlanta (WSBTV), and trees down on houses including reports on the spc site. 93,000 customers mostly in metro Atlanta without power.

[CrazyC83]

One person died near Birmingham, AL after a tree fell on a mobile home. No tornadoes, but still quite an intense system.

[wbug1]

I found this interesting video of the severe derecho on Aug 23, 2007 iin the south loop area of Chicago, Michigan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz4tBlgC ... re=related

[HURAKAN]

[wbug1]

Yup, those cells in north florida and georgia are really firing up now.

1625 UNK ASHBURN TURNER GA 3171 8365 WIND DAMAGE IN ASHBURN...POSSIBLE TORNADO. GRAIN SILO DESTROYED...SEVERAL BUILDINGS KNOCKED OFF FOUNDATIONS ...SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED. (TAE)

1710 UNK CLYATTVILLE LOWNDES GA 3069 8332 TREES KNOCKED DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (TAE)

1715 UNK THOMASVILLE THOMAS GA 3084 8398 SEVERAL TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE. SOME TOPS WERE TRISTED OFF THE TREES. AN OLD BARN WAS DESTROYED. THE GREATEST SWATH OF DAMAGE WAS FROM THE HWY 84 BYPASS TO COUNTY LINE R (TAE)

1730 UNK MADISON MADISON FL 3047 8342 TREES DOWN AND DEBRIS REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN EXITS 252 AND 253 IN MADISON COUNTY. TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 90 AND MLK BLVD. (TAE)

just noticed 65 dbz echo on the cell moving near the FL/GA border approaching the atlantic.
the cell near douglas, ga is showing 65 dbz reflectivity, but at least shear is low there

[Brent]

Well I slept through that WHOLE MESS. I can't believe it. I wasn't in the most intense part of it though and haven't seen any damage here.

I'm really surprised at how bad it was north of here though(1 person killed in Leeds from a falling tree on a mobile home).

[wbug1]

How are these things popping up this fast? I can barely see the ts cells that are causing NWS to put up tor warnings, and these things popped up in 20 minutes.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 230 PM EST

* AT 154 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PORT
EVERGLADES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN GLYNN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 215 PM EST

* AT 130 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WOODBINE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WOODBINE...WAVERLY...ST. SIMONS...SEA ISLAND...JEKYLL ISLAND...HIGH
POINT...DOCK JUNCTION...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES AND BRUNSWICK.



the area under tor warning in broward isn't under a tornado watch yet!

[Brent]

WOW, and there was no tornado warning.

I saw the damage on the local news earlier, pretty incredible. It's only about 30 miles from here.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

..PRELIMINARY REPORT FOR 26 FEBRUARY CARROLL COUNTY TORNADO

A DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS CONFIRMED THAT A HIGH END EF2 TO
LOWER END EF3 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY
BETWEEN 530 AND 600 AM EST TODAY.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE ABOUT 13
MILES WEST OF CARROLLTON AND TRAVELED TO A POINT ABOUT 5 MILES
WEST OF CARROLLTON. THE TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS 8 MILES LONG WITH
A MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF 100 YARDS. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS WERE
ESTIMATED NEAR 140 MPH. A TOTAL OF 36 STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED ALONG THE PATH OF THE TORNADO. THIRTY-TWO OF THESE
STRUCTURES WERE HOMES AND THREE WERE BUSINESSES. ONLY FOUR OR FIVE
OF THESE STRUCTURES WERE MOBILE HOMES. ONE INJURY WAS REPORTED AT
A HOME THAT WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED IN THE 1200 BLOCK OF INDIAN
CREEK ROAD.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING CONCERNING THIS AND DAMAGE
REPORTED FROM OTHER AREAS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTAL GEORGIA TUESDAY.

[wbug1]

Hi Brent,

I did notice a 65 dbz echo on the thunderstorm that was in a line directly west from downtown Atlanta, I was watching the peachtree radar during the time the one strong ts cell moved through just west of carrollton to after it moved through Atlanta. The thunderstorm line weakened somewhat just as it passed near carrollton and the 65 dbz echo was replaced with 60 dbz max. There was also hi shear, with a sharp dilineation green to red transition ( high velocity red to high velocity green, velocity base on the radar) as the line approached Carrollton, the line weakened considerably approaching Atlanta (fortunately for Atlanta).
As the line passed Carrollton, I lost the radar.

I never saw any hook in the velocity and base radar images, but high shear was present, est at least 150-170 knots.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe my memory isn't perfect, but it seems the most impressive severe storms around HOU are the ones not predicted. I recall late Spring before last, driving up I-45 towards Spring, beautiful thunderhead with big anvil, purplsih/greenish base and a suspicious lowering to the SW corner. Rain hit just as I reached Beltway 8, hail was about marble sized, but loud, and I was wondering how much bigger it would have to get to star the windshield or ding the sheet-metal, and I don't recall any chatter on the AFD or evening newscasts the night before.


Anyway, if Euro is right, March 4th has potential for an active day in the SE USA


Negatively tilted trough with a vigorous low level circulation.



GFS is more neutrally tilted, and a day faster, but also holds the promise post-frontal of some winter wx in Northern Lousiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

SPC 4-8 day outlooks agrees with that older Euro forecast for about March 4th...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED FEB 27 2008

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT -- DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-3
OUTLOOK -- IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF
MARINE MODIFICATION OVER GULF OF MEXICO...UNDISTURBED BY ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL SURGES AFTER PRESENT ONE. THIS SCENARIO BOOSTS PROBABILITY
OF FAVORABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR UPPER
TROUGHING EPISODE...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND PACIFIC NW
DAY-4/SAT-SUN...THEN AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS DAYS
5-6/SUN-TUE. ECMWF FCSTS MORE WWD/SOONER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHOSE EARLIER SRN STREAM DOMINANCE WOULD FAVOR LOW LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE CLOSER TO GULF MOISTURE. BY CONTRAST...OPERATIONAL
GFS AND MANY MREF MEMBERS -- WHICH ARE GFS BASED -- DELAY SRN STREAM
DEEPENING UNTIL TROUGHING REACHES SERN CONUS DAYS 6-7/MON-WED. EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF REPRESENTS OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...WILL LEAN HEAVILY
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION IN OUTLINING POSSIBLE SEVERE EPISODE FROM SRN
PLAINS/W GULF COAST STATES TO SERN CONUS DAYS 5-6/SUN-TUE. ECMWF IS
MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUNS...ITS RECENT VERIFICATION
RECORD IS MORE ROBUST...AND MANY MREF MEMBERS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING
TOWARD LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2008

New Euro

Evening March 3rd- strong 500 mb trough and very strong 850 mb windfields.


35 to 40 m/s (near 80 knot) 850 mb jet has severe weather written all over it in Mississippi Valley.


We shall see what we shall see...

[CrazyC83]

Now that came out of nowhere!

YET another outbreak is in the forecast early next week though...looks like March will roar in like a lion again...I agree that those soundings have tornado outbreak written all over it. I wouldn't be surprised if March 3-4 is as bad as February 5-6, with the peak activity late on March 3 (Monday night).

[wbug1]

SPC has a massive potential MDT area in the 4-8 day convective outlook period. Temperatures look to be warm, mainly in Texas.

[RL3AO]

Interesting. Something to watch.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is Monday will be the worst day. I do sense a major (historic?) tornado outbreak next week...

[brunota2003]

Well, MHX starting to watch this closely (and Eastern NC is in a Day 6 area).

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS DURING PERIOD AND TO POPS/WX MON
NIGHT-WED NIGHT. MAIN SYSTEM DURING PERIOD WILL BE UPR LOW AND
ATTENDANT SFC SYSTEM LIFTING NE OVER ERN U.S. MON NIGHT-WED. MED
RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON TRACK BUT CLOSE ON TIMING AND
HPC GOING WITH ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE SOLUTION. WILL DEFINITELY SEE
SOME WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SVR WX PSBL LATE TUE. KEPT POPS IN
HIGH CHC RANGE FOR NOW.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280954
SPC AC 280954

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST THU FEB 28 2008

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SVR OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
DAY-5/3RD-4TH FROM MS DELTA REGION TO GA.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING NOW OVER N-CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
WRN CONUS DAYS 3-4/1ST-3RD...THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DAYS
5-6/3RD-5TH. PROGS NOW AGREE ON SRN STREAM DOMINANCE OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH...AND RESULTANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS INVOF CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AROUND DAY-5/3RD-4TH. DURING PAST 24 HOURS...OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL AND ECMWF MODELS NEARLY HAVE SWAPPED 500 MB PROG TRENDS FOR
WHAT IS NOW DAY-5...WITH ECMWF SOMEWHAT FARTHER E IN CLOSING CYCLONE
ALOFT AND SPECTRAL MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER W. MREF PACKAGES HAVE
TENDED WWD AS WELL...TOWARD OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...WITH THEIR
CONSENSUS SOMEWHAT WWD OF ECMWF. WILL UTILIZE BLEND OF ECMWF AND
MREF MEAN...WHICH RESULTS IN THIS GENERAL SCENARIO --
1. ORGANIZED SVR MAY OCCUR DAY 4 OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN
TX...PERHAPS LIMITED ON N END BY PROBABLE ANAFRONTAL SFC REGIME AND
MORE UNCERTAIN QUALITY OF RETURN FLOW...
2. SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST
STATES LATE DAY-4 INTO EARLY DAY-6...SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING OF
BOTH RETURN FLOW AND WARM SECTOR SHEAR AS SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
INLAND. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS PORTIONS FL PENINSULA...AND
AS FAR E AS PORTIONS CAROLINAS LATE DAY-5 INTO DAY-6.

..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2008