Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

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Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#1 Postby Crostorm » Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:14 am

HOUSTON, March 31 (Reuters) - The 2008 hurricane season will see 11 named tropical storms, with six becoming hurricanes, weather researchers said on Monday.

Half the hurricanes will become strong hurricanes, and four named storms will make landfall in the United States, the Houston-based Weather Research Center predicted.

The 2008 forecast gives 70 percent odds a cyclone will hit West Florida and 60 percent odds storms will strike the Louisiana -Mississippi-Alabama coast and the U.S. east coast.

It could be a long season, with a 30 percent chance of tropical storm formation in May and a 10 percent chance in December, the news release said.

The center uses an index called the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index, developed in 1984, to decide the risk faced by various areas along the coast.

Based partly on the 11-year solar activity cycle, the index has accurately predicted the area at highest risk in all but three of the last 24 years, the news release said. (Reporting by Bruce Nichols; Editing by Christian Wiessner)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id ... 5520080331
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:26 am

11 storms seem too low for a La Niña year, even if La Niña is not present by the summer months.
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#3 Postby Blown Away » Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:27 am

Do you have a link to their 06 & 07 predictions?
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#4 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:32 am

THE UK? GIVE ME A BREAK. 11??? JUST USING SOLAR FLARES IS DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH. HOW ABOUT 11 HURRICANES THIS YEAR. WOULD BE MORE INLINE. TOO MANY VARIABLES POINT TO AN ACTIVE YEAR. SST'S, NINO,QBO, PRESSURE ANOMALIES AND BERMUDA HIGH WEAKER THEN LAST YEAR. A BIG FACTOR IS SAL WHICH I THINK CORRELATES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE AZORES HIGH.
Last edited by HURRICANELONNY on Fri Apr 04, 2008 6:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#5 Postby boca » Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:56 am

I don't believe in these early forecasts.How can they predict what SAL will be like in August and September.Sorry I'm a non-believer.Its funny that these agencies actually get paid to put out a forecast.
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#6 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:34 am

Any prediction for the Texas coast? Just wondering why it was left out.
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Apr 02, 2008 7:51 am

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#8 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:10 am

LaBreeze wrote:Any prediction for the Texas coast? Just wondering why it was left out.



Because in my somewhat unscientific prediction, made last February based almost entirely on the 1950 hurricane season (which is probably almost as valid as any other six month lead time prediction), I unofficially cleared Texas and Louisiana, possible exceptions outer fringes of a Tamalipaus storm in extreme South Texas, ditto a Alabama or Florida Panhandle storm on extreme SE Louisiana.


Obviously, they read Storm2K and cribbed my prediction. Well, almost, 13 storms, 11 hurricanes, at least half of them majors, with most of the majors staying away from land, although Miami is due for a late season major hurricane mid-October.


Florida will have a couple of other storms during the season, which won't start until August.


I read the Wiki entry on 1950 a couple of months ago, and again, unoffcially, this has at least a finite chance of being correct.
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#9 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Apr 02, 2008 1:53 pm

Hmmm, based on solar flares. From your quote I thought that the east coast had a much lower chance that west coast of Fla. until I saw their map. Seems they have a separate section for Ga. to NC coast. That area is 90%. Obviously I hope they are wrong. I am thinking of publishing for the first time my annual blindfolded dart board predictions. Now I do admit that so far I have gotten 0 % right, but this year I am refining my research. I am going to use a US, Central America and Caribbean map instead of a world map (admtlingly, I should have eliminated my Antarctica and Greenland strikes from last year). Truth be known it really doesn't matter whether or not I wear a blindfold, I can't hit anything with a dart, but I feel it is necessary to eliminate any wish cast factor.
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#10 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Apr 02, 2008 3:02 pm

If your prediction holds, I'm safe! We all know how things can change though.
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Apr 02, 2008 3:58 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:THE UK? GIVE ME A BREAK. 11??? JUST USING SOLAR FLARES IS DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH. HOW ABOUT 11 HURRICANES THIS YEAR. WOULD BE MORE INLINE. TOO MANY VARIABLES POINT TO AN ACTIVE YEAR. SST'S, NINO,QBO, PRESSURE ANOMALIES AND BERMUDA HIGH WEAKER THEN LAST YEAR. A BIG FACTOR IS SAL WHICH I THINK CORRELATES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.


The UK has been fairly reliable. Not sure if this is the same company that uses dynamical models to make their predictions (dynamical models have significant advantages over statistical methods)
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#12 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:15 pm

The UK needs to stick to there own waters. Leave ours alone. Their forecast correlates to a normal year. Show me one factor that would come in line with their forecast. Dr. Grey/Klotzbach are forecast to increase the #'s by at least 1 possible 2 in there meeting with the Hurricane center this week. At least I heard that on the radio today. :roll:
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#13 Postby hial2 » Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:46 pm

The bottom line is......(drum roll)

NO ONE really knows for sure...
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#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:52 pm

I do agree with the quick season: I think there is a 40% chance of a named storm before June 1 (and a 10% chance of an April storm).
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 03, 2008 2:10 pm

Have there ever been two consecutive seasons with a storm before June? (I'm guessing there has been at some point, but I can't think of any offhand.)
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Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#16 Postby RL3AO » Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:00 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Have there ever been two consecutive seasons with a storm before June? (I'm guessing there has been at some point, but I can't think of any offhand.)


1952/53 was the last one I could find. Groundhogs Day Storm that struck Florida in 1952 and TS Alice in May '53.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:03 pm

In this satellite era early and late storms will become more common than ever before.
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#18 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Apr 03, 2008 7:03 pm

There were likely dozens of years with out of season storms- but no
satellite to capture those storms. Over the past 150 years I'm sure many
years (dozens) had out of season storms with likely some consecutive years.

For the same reason I think 1933 may have had 30+ named storms. Many
further out in the Atlantic missed by the lack of satellite data.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:51 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:The UK needs to stick to there own waters. Leave ours alone. Their forecast correlates to a normal year. Show me one factor that would come in line with their forecast. Dr. Grey/Klotzbach are forecast to increase the #'s by at least 1 possible 2 in there meeting with the Hurricane center this week. At least I heard that on the radio today. :roll:


Their methods tend to be more sound than ours. The real reason you are upset is the fact that they are not feeding your wishes of an active season. I find the baseless rant against this forecatsing agency quite disturbing as a scientist
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Atlantic to see six hurricanes in '08 - forecast

#20 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:59 pm

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