TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Forecast=15/8/4 / ACE=136

[cycloneye]

As I come back from vacation,I found another Atlantic hurricane season forecast ,this one from the folks of Tropical Storm Risk in which they see an active 2008 season,although a little down from their previous one.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read part of TSR April forecast. Except for landfall. Which I think is a joke this time of year. Anyways he predicts the SST of the MDR to be cooler then previously forecast. I wonder where he gets that info and that probably would mean the trade winds would have to be stronger then forecast to cause upwelling. Looking at the area TSR is explaining. They would be right right now but that could change in time.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.2008.gif

[KWT]

Seems very close in terms of number to the 2000 season which had 15/8/3...

[hial2]

I read part of TSR April forecast. Except for landfall. Which I think is a joke this time of year. Anyways he predicts the SST of the MDR to be cooler then previously forecast. I wonder where he gets that info and that probably would mean the trade winds would have to be stronger then forecast to cause upwelling. Looking at the area TSR is explaining. They would be right right now but that could change in time.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.2008.gif

Wouldn't this mean LESS re curving storms?

[JonathanBelles]

Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.

[Ivanhater]

Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.

Lol..I think S2K should put out our own forecast

[hial2]

Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.

Lol..I think S2K should put out our own forecast

Hey Ivan..which one of the motley crew picture is you??..

[Ivanhater]

Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.

Lol..I think S2K should put out our own forecast

Hey Ivan..which one of the motley crew picture is you??..

The middle one...

[Evil Jeremy]

Thats also what the current s2k number averages is.

Lol..I think S2K should put out our own forecast

Honestly, that is not a bad idea. This place is full of weather geeks, I think we could actually make one!

[cycloneye]

We have the Tropical Analysis forum, viewforum.php?f=29 where our pro mets and the knowleagble amateurs can post their own forecasts instead of having storm2k make forecasts.The only thing we have is the forecast poll for the members that can participate posting their set of numbers.

[wxman57]

I don't see any significant changes from their earlier forecast, which was also 15/8/4. Phil Klotzbach will be putting out the new Colorado State 2008 forecast tomorrow from the hurricane conference in the Bahamas. Phil and Dr. Gray indicated in their talks at the NHC last week that conditions now look more favorable for development this season than they did prior to their last outlook in December. So they don't plan on reducing the numbers. They'll probably increase the total by another named storm.

[cycloneye]

I don't see any significant changes from their earlier forecast, which was also 15/8/4. Phil Klotzbach will be putting out the new Colorado State 2008 forecast tomorrow from the hurricane conference in the Bahamas. Phil and Dr. Gray indicated in their talks at the NHC last week that conditions now look more favorable for development this season than they did prior to their last outlook in December. So they don't plan on reducing the numbers. They'll probably increase the total by another named storm.

Well 57,they did but by 2.Interesting that both Tropical Storm Risk and Klotzbach are on the same page in terms of the factors that they see as favorable.