
Serious question
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Re: Serious question
You're not reading the posts competely - as mentioned in my initial post, I made those comments with all due respect to those I worked for...
They are (or were) fine people - it's just that I don't agree with their views...
Unlike many in the world today, I believe that if two people don't agree, it doesn't mean that they need to hate each other - I still respect people I know who think differently from myself, since that's the right thing to do...
I'm just upset that Lake Okeechobee has been harmed, perhaps permanently (as some have said in the news) because of a man-made drought, based on a faulty decision and fear...
They are (or were) fine people - it's just that I don't agree with their views...
Unlike many in the world today, I believe that if two people don't agree, it doesn't mean that they need to hate each other - I still respect people I know who think differently from myself, since that's the right thing to do...
I'm just upset that Lake Okeechobee has been harmed, perhaps permanently (as some have said in the news) because of a man-made drought, based on a faulty decision and fear...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Serious question
Ed, thanks for that comment (sorry for the typos, I'm in a hurry this morning)...
Frank
Frank
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It's probably my spelling Frank..I have always sucked with spelling. Sorry everyone.
Ed is absolutely right.. There is a big planet out there folks with alot of views...not like yours Frank. I don't appreciate someone pushing their religion into a seaonal forecast question and then justify thier bashing of forecasters because they have worked with them.
Get a kick outta this Frank...
Lee County is lifting water restrictions and it's not even May... LOL.. I definately agree on bad management of water in South Florida. We need to learn and conserve ALWAYS..
Ed is absolutely right.. There is a big planet out there folks with alot of views...not like yours Frank. I don't appreciate someone pushing their religion into a seaonal forecast question and then justify thier bashing of forecasters because they have worked with them.
Get a kick outta this Frank...
Lee County is lifting water restrictions and it's not even May... LOL.. I definately agree on bad management of water in South Florida. We need to learn and conserve ALWAYS..
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Re: Serious question
Frank2 wrote:Admin, perhaps this thread needs to be locked...
Aquawind's post is typical for an atheist - folks like him ...
I don't think it should be locked but as a Atheist when I here stuff like this its hard not to bite my keyboard>>>>

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Re: Serious question
I'm an atheist but I understand what he means.
We're going through a period of time where man is not being humble enough. People are predicting all kinds of things and putting weight into forecasts that scientifically have no skill. If you're religious I would assume you would take the attitude that its naive to think you understand gods work. As a non religious person I think it's naive to think they understand our incredibly complex environment when they can't even forecast the weather next week.
I don't see a conflict in those positions.
We're going through a period of time where man is not being humble enough. People are predicting all kinds of things and putting weight into forecasts that scientifically have no skill. If you're religious I would assume you would take the attitude that its naive to think you understand gods work. As a non religious person I think it's naive to think they understand our incredibly complex environment when they can't even forecast the weather next week.
I don't see a conflict in those positions.

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Re: Serious question
tolakram wrote:I'm an atheist but I understand what he means.
We're going through a period of time where man is not being humble enough. People are predicting all kinds of things and putting weight into forecasts that scientifically have no skill. If you're religious I would assume you would take the attitude that its naive to think you understand gods work. As a non religious person I think it's naive to think they understand our incredibly complex environment when they can't even forecast the weather next week.
I don't see a conflict in those positions.
But then do we just give up ? Forcast continue to get better...They will never be full proof....I'M confused on this thinking...We understand alot of our complex enviroment..This make no sense to me...
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Re: Serious question
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Can't we all just get along?
TAKES OUT BASEBALL BATS......
And hits a baseball....


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Re: Serious question
But then do we just give up ? Forcast continue to get better...They will never be full proof....I'M confused on this thinking...We understand alot of our complex enviroment..This make no sense to me...
No, of course not, but we show more care and caution in how data is presented.
You know I hate numbers, I think they're all for show and silly. When forecasts get released with storm numbers I believe they appear to be accurate, as if we know something we don't. When they go even further and predict what area has the most risk, even though they have shown NO SKILL, then it's getting way way way out of hand.
I don't want them to stop, I just want them to tone down the rhetoric and only produce numbers when they've shown to have some skill in forecasting them.
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Re: Serious question
tolakram wrote:But then do we just give up ? Forcast continue to get better...They will never be full proof....I'M confused on this thinking...We understand alot of our complex enviroment..This make no sense to me...
No, of course not, but we show more care and caution in how data is presented.
You know I hate numbers, I think they're all for show and silly. When forecasts get released with storm numbers I believe they appear to be accurate, as if we know something we don't. When they go even further and predict what area has the most risk, even though they have shown NO SKILL, then it's getting way way way out of hand.
I don't want them to stop, I just want them to tone down the rhetoric and only produce numbers when they've shown to have some skill in forecasting them.
Wow....Didn't know people on here actually thought this way....
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Re: Serious question
Wow....Didn't know people on here actually thought this way....
Ha, I don't know that people do, only that I do.

The original question started with ... should we even pay attention to Dr. Gray anymore?
My answer to that would be yes, to the detailed explanation of their forecast, but not the numbers as they've shown no skill this early. The rest is just ranting of how dangerous producing nice understandable (and wrong) numbers can be this early in the season.
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Re: Serious question
If they predict 11 named storms or 15, does it really make a difference? IMO no, they are essentially giving a statistical idea on what we should expect on average. The #'s are little above average, IMO because of the potential effects of a moderate to weak La Nina. If El Nino was expected they would likely go a little below average. Most of the time there will be between 10-15 storms and on occasion you have a year like 05'. IMO, the #'s have been higher recently due to satellite picking up every disturbance in the Atlantic basin. These guys are among the best and their opinion has credibility, they are forcasting a trends. I think they should stop putting a number on their forcast and just predict above or below average. The media is to blame.
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Re: Serious question
I'd have to agree with Blown_away - as someone here (I don't recall who) said last season, the media has gotten into "Disaster Forecasting" (a good (or bad) example is TWC's "It Could Happen Tomorrow" series), which only puts fear into the minds of the public - there's enough stress out there without media "pundits" adding fear to the mix...
Per TWC's series, among other "It Could Happen..." "disasters", they mention an F5 tornado striking Washington, or, a Cat 3 or greater hurricane making landfall at New York City - I think anyone here would agree that those things are at the bottom of the list for both cities, which are much more concerned about man-made issues, so, with that in mind, why does the media continue to pound on the "what if's"?
Unfortunately, that way of thinking seemed to get the SFWMD in it's grip two years ago - like some here, I've lived in South Florida for most of my life, and, we always knew that when there was a developing hurricane in the Atlantic, to be on the safe side, the SFWMD always released about 1 foot of Lake water, since that's about the amount that would fall if a hurricane crossed the area.
In 2006, on the other hand, to release up to 4 feet of water for something that amounted to another "what if" was beyond comprehension - the only thing that does make sense, in my mind, is that the Board members could only envision what happened in New Orleans, also happening in West Palm Beach, and, out of irrational fear (since the New Orleans issue is much different than that in South Florida), based on fautly recommendations, they chose to release as much water as they did...
As the saying goes, I hope they learned their lesson...
Per TWC's series, among other "It Could Happen..." "disasters", they mention an F5 tornado striking Washington, or, a Cat 3 or greater hurricane making landfall at New York City - I think anyone here would agree that those things are at the bottom of the list for both cities, which are much more concerned about man-made issues, so, with that in mind, why does the media continue to pound on the "what if's"?
Unfortunately, that way of thinking seemed to get the SFWMD in it's grip two years ago - like some here, I've lived in South Florida for most of my life, and, we always knew that when there was a developing hurricane in the Atlantic, to be on the safe side, the SFWMD always released about 1 foot of Lake water, since that's about the amount that would fall if a hurricane crossed the area.
In 2006, on the other hand, to release up to 4 feet of water for something that amounted to another "what if" was beyond comprehension - the only thing that does make sense, in my mind, is that the Board members could only envision what happened in New Orleans, also happening in West Palm Beach, and, out of irrational fear (since the New Orleans issue is much different than that in South Florida), based on fautly recommendations, they chose to release as much water as they did...
As the saying goes, I hope they learned their lesson...
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Hurricanes are honestly too small to forecast long term. We all know how drastically a hurricane can change in 3 days. In 1 day, even.
Thing is, we don't know what the season will hold, we simply don't. No one expected 2005's maniac activity, and no one expected 2006's drastic lull. Really, no one. It'd be difficult to find someone who forecasted the numbers anywhere near the actual numbers for each season in April. Stuff happens, condtions change... it's difficult for anyone to make any kind of forecast this time of year.
Does that make Dr. Gray any less credible? Not in my opinion.
Is it sad that people pay more attention to a groudhog in February? Very.
Thing is, we don't know what the season will hold, we simply don't. No one expected 2005's maniac activity, and no one expected 2006's drastic lull. Really, no one. It'd be difficult to find someone who forecasted the numbers anywhere near the actual numbers for each season in April. Stuff happens, condtions change... it's difficult for anyone to make any kind of forecast this time of year.
Does that make Dr. Gray any less credible? Not in my opinion.
Is it sad that people pay more attention to a groudhog in February? Very.

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Re: Serious question
I was short on time yesterday and couldn't read everyone's posts, but, first let me say that I agree with Cyclone1 - as mentioned yesterday, our own NWSFO had what they would refer to as a "busted" forecast last Monday, when they failed to forecast the widespread rain in Broward County that afternoon, so, if they have difficulty in making a forecast only 6 hours in advance, how can the same be accomplished 6 months into the future?
And, I read tolakram's post and do agree - you are correct when you said that, as someone who believe's in God's hand controlling the weather, I'd better be humble enough to admit that I don't know what God is thinking!
I also agree that humility does seem to be very lacking in today's world - as someone who's just old enough to have seen the change, from the low or no-tech world of the '60s to today, at that time, for lack of advanced technology, people were often forced to trust when it came to just about everything - today, everyone seems to believe that technology is the answer to every problem, but, they are so wrong...
A good example was the 1970 Apollo 13 accident - the churches, for every religion and denomination, were often packed during those three days, because, everyone knew that three astronauts could only rely on very crude technology (or repairs) to bring them back home (to Earth) safely, and, knowing that their lives depended far less on this basic technology, but depended far more on a miracle to save them (which was really the case, considering how little margin of error they had to make a safe reentry, due to the very limited functionality of their disabled capsule), the world turned to prayer - the rest is history...
As far as Dr. Gray and his team, well, the NHC and HRD Directors of my time were dead-set against his idea of long-term hurricane forecasting, for the reasons that have come to pass today - just the other morning, one local media "pundit" was making his own prediction on the hurricane season - where does it stop?
It's worth mentioning one last time - I happened to be in the office twenty-five years ago, when the NHC and HRD Directors of that time said that the practice of long-term hurricane forecasting would likely only benefit those who sensationalize - they were right...
P.S. Sorry to have gotten into a argument with you aquawind - at least we can all agree that we love the weather, that's for certain!
And, I read tolakram's post and do agree - you are correct when you said that, as someone who believe's in God's hand controlling the weather, I'd better be humble enough to admit that I don't know what God is thinking!
I also agree that humility does seem to be very lacking in today's world - as someone who's just old enough to have seen the change, from the low or no-tech world of the '60s to today, at that time, for lack of advanced technology, people were often forced to trust when it came to just about everything - today, everyone seems to believe that technology is the answer to every problem, but, they are so wrong...
A good example was the 1970 Apollo 13 accident - the churches, for every religion and denomination, were often packed during those three days, because, everyone knew that three astronauts could only rely on very crude technology (or repairs) to bring them back home (to Earth) safely, and, knowing that their lives depended far less on this basic technology, but depended far more on a miracle to save them (which was really the case, considering how little margin of error they had to make a safe reentry, due to the very limited functionality of their disabled capsule), the world turned to prayer - the rest is history...
As far as Dr. Gray and his team, well, the NHC and HRD Directors of my time were dead-set against his idea of long-term hurricane forecasting, for the reasons that have come to pass today - just the other morning, one local media "pundit" was making his own prediction on the hurricane season - where does it stop?
It's worth mentioning one last time - I happened to be in the office twenty-five years ago, when the NHC and HRD Directors of that time said that the practice of long-term hurricane forecasting would likely only benefit those who sensationalize - they were right...
P.S. Sorry to have gotten into a argument with you aquawind - at least we can all agree that we love the weather, that's for certain!
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Serious question
The art of predicting or forecasting seasonal hurricane activity is still in its infancy. Just like any other human endeavor, when something just gets started it tends to well, suck. Recall how well weather computer modeling were a few years back. They sucked compared to today. With time weather computer modeling will improve as will the ability to forecast the number and landfall location of huricanes. Just in my lifetime I've witnessed incredible leaps in technology. Why, when I first started out in electronics so many years ago, the vacuum tube was the technology (am I dateing myself?). Look how far we have come in the last 40 years. Given time the ability to forecast hurricanes will improve to a point where the forecasts will be quite accurate.....MGC
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Re:
Cyclone1 wrote:Hurricanes are honestly too small to forecast long term. We all know how drastically a hurricane can change in 3 days. In 1 day, even.
If I may quote an NHC discussion from Hurricane Dennis.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES!
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The below article is one good reason why long-term weather predictions are useless, since they can never predict the unexpected:
http://www.miamiherald.com/889/story/496225.html
it's been proven that major volcanic eruptions have a dampening effect on tropical storm formation (too many suspended aerosols can lead to an inversion, similar to the effects of large African dust outbreaks)...
http://www.miamiherald.com/889/story/496225.html
it's been proven that major volcanic eruptions have a dampening effect on tropical storm formation (too many suspended aerosols can lead to an inversion, similar to the effects of large African dust outbreaks)...
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Re: Serious question
hial2 wrote:feederband wrote:Well someone has to give us at least a idea on what to expect...If not him then who should do it? I mean he takes what he see's and gives us his best prediction...Who's going to win the superbowl next year?
THE MIAMI DOLPHINS

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