SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Hot.. Severe storms on Sat?

#1381 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat May 10, 2008 9:17 pm

Good news for at least a few storms with the front- Lake Charles 0Z sounding shows cap has weakened.



Image



Still probably will take the actual frontal passage, but at least a shot at beneficial rain.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#1382 Postby southerngale » Sun May 11, 2008 4:21 am

Geesh... only a slight chance of rain overnight and I was just woken by my weather alert, checked radar and an intense looking cell is barreling this way. Dang, it's moving fast.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-241-245-361-457-111000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0064.080511T0913Z-080511T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...SILSBEE...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...
SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES EVADALE...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 409 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KOUNTZE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SILSBEE AND LUMBERTON BY 430 AM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EVADALE BY 440 AM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3034 9391 3016 9399 3019 9425 3040 9448
3054 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 309DEG 32KT 3041 9433

$$

ML
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#1383 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun May 11, 2008 4:31 am

We just had a brief, but intense, storm cell move through here. Lots of loud thunder, heavy rain, and perhaps even some very small hail..though I cannot confirm this.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re:

#1384 Postby vbhoutex » Sun May 11, 2008 5:02 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:We just had a brief, but intense, storm cell move through here. Lots of loud thunder, heavy rain, and perhaps even some very small hail..though I cannot confirm this.


Same here, except the hail, if there was any, sounded larger to me, but I can't comfirm the hail either. Confirmed reports of penny size hail close by, but I didn't see it only heard what I thought was hail.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Hot.. Severe storms on Sat?

#1385 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun May 11, 2008 5:20 am

Cool air hasn't arrived yet, but gusty North winds and the rain has ended. Not sure how much we got.


Nice way to wake up without the alarm clock.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Hot.. Severe storms on Sat?

#1386 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun May 11, 2008 5:25 am

We're in the SPC's Day 4 and 5 outlook areas.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...

EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH IS HANDLED SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS IS RELUCTANT TO SHUNT UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...THOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
ADVECT DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAMIFICATIONS OF DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL BE THE EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE INTO THE CNTRL GULF
STATES...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LINGERING SEVERE ACROSS ERN TX IF
SLOWER SOLUTION IS NOTED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE
SRN U.S...MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

..DARROW.. 05/11/2008
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5313
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Hot.. Severe storms on Sat?

#1387 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun May 11, 2008 12:39 pm

After 4:00 AM, it was quite stormy. It woke me up. There was a lot of thunder and rain. I thought I even heard some hail falling.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#1388 Postby southerngale » Sun May 11, 2008 2:49 pm

It didn't last very long as the storm was moving quickly, but that was quite an intense storm. The thunder and lightning was constant with some house shaking thunder as well. I thought I heard hail, but when I briefly looked out the window, the rain was so hard, I couldn't tell. I didn't see any, so maybe it wasn't hail, but it sure sounded like it. There are reports of hail in the area though, and there are downed trees in the area, along with power outages. It's amazing how much damage such a quick storm can do.

A storm early Sunday morning blew down trees and caused scattered power outages in Hardin and Jasper Counties.

The Hardin County Sheriff's Office tells KFDM News it received some reports of trees down and spotty power outages.

The Jasper County Sheriff's Office also received reports of downed trees and power lines, primarily near FM 105 and Gist Road in Evadale.

One viewer called KFDM News to report hail the size of tennis and softballs left holes in his roof.

Watch the Weekend Report with Nicole Murray at 5:30 p.m. and 10 p.m. Sunday, and Kerry Cooper's weather for more on the story.

http://www.kfdm.com/news/jasper_25984__ ... nties.html
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1389 Postby jasons2k » Mon May 12, 2008 10:04 am

Interesting - looks like some decent storms came with the front early Sunday AM, but at my location we didn't get anything - we just missed it. At least it looks like a decent shot of rain later this week...
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1390 Postby jasons2k » Tue May 13, 2008 8:57 am

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Active weather period shaping up for the area including severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Synopsis:

Large upper trough digging into the SW US with downstream sub-tropical flow established over TX. Water vapor loop shows what appears to be a vort max approaching the Baja/W coast of Mexico and moving NE at around 80kts…with the upstream upper trough located over extreme western Nevada. Cold front at the surface and gravity wave aloft is noted in WV images over N TX where surface low pressure is forming in the E TX panhandle. At the surface warm moist Gulf air mass has surged back into the region with PWs rising back into the 1.5 in range and surface dewpoints of 70 or greater at most reporting stations. Additionally smoke/haze from fires burning in southern Mexico/central America is spreading up the TX coastline and will result in hazy conditions by afternoon…should not be as bad as Saturday. Near tropical air mass from the W Caribbean Sea will reach the region overnight with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 70’s and PWS climbing above normal and close to 2.0 inches….we know what that means….excessive rainfall.

***The following is highly dependent on meso scale boundaries and processes and great forecast uncertainty remains tonight through Thursday as small scale features will drive large thunderstorms complexes across the state.***

Large upper trough will remain parked over the SW US while cool front stalls over NW TX and sub-tropical flow provides a wealth of ripples. Feel the first event will be this evening and tonight as storms fire along the C TX dry line and move ENE into at least the northern ½ of SE TX. Outflow boundaries will be produced and lay across the area on Wednesday.

Next disturbance should help fire off a new round of storms Wednesday along old outflow boundaries and once again along the C TX dry line during the afternoon. SPC has the entire area outlooked for Wednesday and is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk if local air mass remains juiced and is not worked over tonight by storms or as SPC put it “ a rogue MCS”.

Air mass will recover Wednesday evening awaiting next disturbance and main piece of energy Thursday morning. Majority of lift passes north of the area…however outflow boundaries may be generated and forced southward into the region sparking numerous storms. NAM and GFS show big QPF bullseyes over the ARKLATX back into E C TX where storms develop and train along a boundary. Very uncertain forecast by this period as convective developments today through late Wednesday will determine development on Thursday.

Heavy Rainfall Threat:

Given copious amounts of moisture that will be in place (PWS near the magic 2.0”) along with good low level Gulf inflow, slow moving surface boundaries, potential for cell training, and at times strong divergence aloft…the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall looks to be high. Main concern will be for a similar event to 5/5/08 where outflow boundaries becomes stalled and storms fire and train along the boundary with very high hourly rainfall rates. It is getting deeper into the warm season and rich tropical air masses can produce some big totals in short time periods. Basin wide amounts of 2-3 inches through Thursday look reasonable (1-2” across our SW zones…Matagorda Bay) although I would not be surprised to see a few 8-12 inch isolated totals over E TX.

Severe Threat:

Main threat appears to be large hail and wind damage along any MCS/bow echoes that form Wednesday or Thursday. Air mass will be fairly unstable by this afternoon and 850mb cap will slowly erode and possibly be broken by weak short waves in the noisy SW flow aloft. Feel the highest threat will come Wednesday and Thursday when large MCS may rake the area with more widespread wind damage…as noted above moderate risk may be needed on Wednesday.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1391 Postby jasons2k » Tue May 13, 2008 10:10 pm

Getting closer....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0316.html


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF AUSTIN
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 314...WW 315...

DISCUSSION...MCS WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR SYSTEM AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE IF
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SURGES ENEWD
INTO CENTRAL TX.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
0 likes   

User avatar
liveweatherman
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2008 7:13 am
Contact:

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1392 Postby liveweatherman » Wed May 14, 2008 2:38 am

Image

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issue Date: 158 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 300 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
KINNEY COUNTY...
SOUTHERN REAL COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* AT 156 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LEAKEY TO 12 MILES WEST OF SPOFFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TUFF BY 205 AM CDT...
MONTELL AND LEAKEY BY 215 AM CDT...
LOST MAPLES STATE PARK AND SPOFFORD BY 220 AM CDT...
ANACACHO AND RIO FRIO BY 235 AM CDT...
LAGUNA BY 240 AM CDT...
VANDERPOOL AND REAGAN WELLS BY 245 AM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2987 9919 2920 10000 2916 10075 2931 10067
2958 10024 2962 10002 2987 9983
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 264DEG 24KT 2980 9977 2919 10059

$$

TORNADO WARNING
Issue Date: 151 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 230 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXC271-323-140730-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080514T0730Z/
KINNEY TX-MAVERICK TX-
150 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR MAVERICK
AND SOUTHERN KINNEY COUNTIES...

AT 147 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUEMADO...MOVING EAST
AT 36 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DARLING AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF SPOFFORD BY 220 AM CDT...
8 MILES SOUTH OF ANACACHO BY 230 AM CDT...

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT FM HIGHWAYS 693 AND 1908.

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2926 10016 2888 10013 2890 10064 2896 10067
2899 10066 2900 10068 2907 10068 2913 10074
2915 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 267DEG 31KT 2906 10068

$$

TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 140 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
Expiration: 900 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXC013-019-029-127-137-163-187-259-265-271-323-325-385-463-465-
493-507-141245-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.A.0317.080514T0640Z-080514T1400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 317 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

ATASCOSA BANDERA BEXAR
DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO
GUADALUPE KENDALL KERR
KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILSON ZAVALA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BANDERA...BOERNE...BRACKETTVILLE...
CARRIZO SPRINGS...CRYSTAL CITY...DEL RIO...EAGLE PASS...
FLORESVILLE...HONDO...KERRVILLE...LEAKEY...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...ROCKSPRINGS...SAN ANTONIO...SEGUIN AND UVALDE.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1393 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 14, 2008 7:57 am

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TORNADO WATCH 319 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-015-041-051-073-161-183-185-213-225-241-289-313-339-
347-351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-423-455-457-471-473-477-
142000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0319.080514T1250Z-080514T2000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE
FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES
HENDERSON HOUSTON JASPER
LEON MADISON MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
SMITH TRINITY TYLER
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#1394 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 14, 2008 8:00 am

Since the MCS did not push through overnight and stabilize the atmosphere along the coast, I think the threat of severe weather this PM for Houston metro is increasing.

The first few visible frames show clearing skies offshore. With SE winds, it's going to get warm ahead of the MCS.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1395 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 14, 2008 8:04 am

From Jeff Lindner at 7:16 AM:
Large MCS/bow echo over C/SC TX moving eastward this morning. Latest radar and satellite trends show weakening of this complex which is typical of such nocturnal systems. Meso vortex (bookend vortex) has been generated from convective explosion just W of Temple, TX with well defined front and rear inflow jets. Smaller scale bow E of KSAT which produced wind damage at the SAT Airport is weakening as it tracks just north of I-10. Outflow boundary is being produced along the southern edge of the line roughly from S of SAT toward LaGrange. Even with very good organization and well define meso vortex…expect this complex to weaken as it moves eastward away from main forcing of the upper trough over the SW US.

Main concern locally is how far east the thunderstorms get before they weaken and where any outflow/meso scale boundaries stall out to aid in potential afternoon development. Believe storms will weaken as they enter our western counties with outflow boundary stalling along a line from S of SAT toward the Hempstead area. With enough heating new storms may fire along this line this afternoon and move deeper into the region. Will also need to watch storms back W of SAT at this hour as they may organize into another MCS and move eastward.

Tonight – Thursday:

Main action/event as upper trough moves into TX and slow moving surface front moves across the area. Expect explosive thunderstorm development with slow moving excessive rainfall producers. Another MCS will form tonight along the slow moving front over C TX and will move slowly across SE TX Thursday. Meso scale features will once again drive the event so while the timing of the upper trough ejection looks good…outflow boundaries/bow echoes may send a rogue MCS crashing through the region early Thursday.

Severe Threat:

SPC has most of the area outlooked today and all the area outlooked on Thursday for severe storms. This is mainly a damaging wind and hail threat. Potential is there tonight into early Thursday for bow echo/LEWP to produce wind damage along the leading edge of the MCS.

Heavy Rainfall:

To show what this air mass is capable of…Shreveport, LA recorded 4.26” in 45 minutes yesterday evening and 6.34” in 1 hour and 15 minutes along with an astounding 3,223 lightening strikes in 1 hour. Very moist…tropical air mass…with dewpoints in the mid 70’s and PWS in the 1.8-2.0” range reside across all of E TX. Moist Gulf flow will be maintained into MCS complexes and mid level flow will become increasingly parallel to surface boundaries over time. Given very moist air mass and potential for warm rain production coupled with threat for cell training…flash flooding will be possible. A location could pick up several inches of rainfall in a very short period of times. Luckily grounds are fairly dry across the area…except for that region that saw the excessive rains on 5/5. Will not use HPC basin wide amounts as they are usually low and do not show the potential for excessive small scale rains as are common with these set-ups. Given the rainfall amounts to our N and W in the past 24-hours and the ongoing rains now over C TX…expect some rises to be generated on area rivers. Additional MCS activity with widespread 1-2” and isolated amounts of 3-4” will be possible. Locally higher totals of 6-8” are also possible where cell training/merging ocurrs.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1396 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 14, 2008 9:39 am

The tornado watch looks like it was slightly reconfigured on the south end. I think they might issue another one just to the south to include Houston Metro - just my thoughts.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1397 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 14, 2008 9:50 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
942 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 936 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BURTON..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
QUARRY...INDEPENDENCE...BURTON...AND BRENHAM

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1398 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 14, 2008 10:14 am

Looks like the rotation (as seen from Granger and HGX dopplers) has really weakened, but if it had rotation once, it could spin up again.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1399 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 14, 2008 10:17 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1010 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW WAVERLY..AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK...POINT BLANK AND COLDSPRING
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Storms Tues. - Fri?

#1400 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed May 14, 2008 10:19 am

HGX radar shows the apparent tornado crossing I-45 right about now. Almost right on the Walker-Montgomery county line
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], jaguars_22 and 7 guests