Severe weather Tuesday may 13th...30% hatched area already :

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cheating and looking at AccuWx early maps of 0Z run, Eastern Oklahoma from just South of Tulsa to extreme Northeast Texas look to be prime spot around 7 pm, with a lesser area of storms that could be strong closer to Houston (matching rain, CAPE, deep shear and EHI)


Using the EHI as a guide, and then finding 3 letter codes in Oklahoma for a city people have heard of, Muskogee looks like tomorrow's spookiest place, per 0Z WRF.



On basis of helicity, cloud base and energy-helicity index just nudges McAlester for a 'prize' I'm sure it could do without.



I'll be interested in seeing 0Z GFS and SPC's interpretation tomorrow.

New 0Z Fort Worth sounding shows there is still about a 1 km layer of drier air below the frontal inversion, and suggestions of a cap forming just above that, but very steep mid-level lapse rates above that and strong mid-level winds.

[6SpeedTA95]

Cheating and looking at AccuWx early maps of 0Z run, Eastern Oklahoma from just South of Tulsa to extreme Northeast Texas look to be prime spot around 7 pm, with a lesser area of storms that could be strong closer to Houston (matching rain, CAPE, deep shear and EHI)


Using the EHI as a guide, and then finding 3 letter codes in Oklahoma for a city people have heard of, Muskogee looks like tomorrow's spookiest place, per 0Z WRF.



On basis of helicity, cloud base and energy-helicity index just nudges McAlester for a 'prize' I'm sure it could do without.

FYI Norman Oklahoma is OUN if that helps you

Guys I'm going to bed, I'll check in tomorrow morning before I head to OKC.

I'll be interested in seeing 0Z GFS and SPC's interpretation tomorrow.

New 0Z Fort Worth sounding shows there is still about a 1 km layer of drier air below the frontal inversion, and suggestions of a cap forming just above that, but very steep mid-level lapse rates above that and strong mid-level winds.

[HarlequinBoy]

I want a break.

*hug* I think the Ozarks and the Mid South deserve one until next year.

[simplykristi]

I don't anticipate much in the way of severe weather here in KC tomorrow. If we have any severe weather, it would be wind and hail. I think that the worst of it will be to the south of the metro area.

Kristi

[liveweatherman]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008
Expiration: 600 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT AS A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACT
AS A CAP OR LID PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING TOO FAR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD THE INSTABILITY INCREASE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...THEN THE RISK OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WILL ALSO INCREASE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Very interesting comment from the SPC in their day 2 outlook...

IF A REASONABLY PRISTINE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN BE SUSTAINED ACROSS TX THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A
RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A MODERATE RISK MAY ULTIMATELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS REGION.

[6SpeedTA95]

Morning guys, the dewpoint here is up to 54*, In okc it is 59* with temps all in the mid to upper 60s.

I've gotta leave for OKC in a bit but as soon as I get to the hotel mid afternoon I'll check back in

[Ed Mahmoud]

I checked OKC (really, really close to Norman) and it wasn't as scary looking as Muskogee.

[6SpeedTA95]

I checked OKC (really, really close to Norman) and it wasn't as scary looking as Muskogee.

what did you check in OKC? :confused:

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm really wondering if the SPC is going to go with a moderate risk on the next update. The Tulsa and OKC stations are both saying Moderate Risk from the I35 corridor east.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 131126Z - 131300Z

A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK UPGRADE WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A NUMBER
OF SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH THE
13Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..GUYER.. 05/13/2008


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

34939806 36439681 37679496 36279374 34449403 32909545
32459716 33379837

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 131236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND
PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO AND WRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO
THE MID MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E THIS PERIOD...WITH FURTHER EVOLUTION
TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE SRN MEMBER...NOW CLOSING OFF OVER
SRN UT...SHOULD DROP S INTO AZ LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING E INTO SRN
NM EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NRN MEMBER NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD
REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY.


AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW OVR THE UPR MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS WILL
CONTINUE E/SE TO A WRN MI/SE MO/NE TX/SW TX/SE NM LINE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. S OF THE FRONT...DRY LINE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM N CNTRL
OK INTO S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY. THE FEATURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN
BY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OK AND N TX...AND MAY RETREAT W ACROSS
CNTRL AND S TX TONIGHT.

...SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO MID MS VLY...
BLENDED PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25/ NOW IN PLACE FROM
SRN OK SWD INTO CNTRL AND E TX. BROAD SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO SE KS AND SRN/CNTRL MO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COUPLED WITH MODERATE WSWLY MID LVL FLOW
AHEAD OF WRN STATES TROUGH AND STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP WILL YIELD
A THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SVR STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING UPON DETAILS OF CONVECTION
INITIATION RELATED TO STOUT EML CAP...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND
STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW CORRIDORS
OF FAIRLY CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY AMIDST MORE WIDELY SCTD EVENTS.

SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF MO AND AR INTO
IL...WRN KY AND PERHAPS WRN TN THROUGH THIS AFTN...ALONG ERN EDGE OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
ENHANCE LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER/ POSSIBLY SVR
STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND COULD EVOLVE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS INVOF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT... INITIALLY
FROM SE KS/WRN MO INTO CNTRL OK...AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRY LINE
INTO N TX AS CAP IS LOCALLY BREACHED. STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH
SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND
2000 J/KG AS FAR N AS SE KS.

ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN/BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM TX/OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY AS BROAD
CURRENT OF SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT...40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW PERSISTS
AHEAD OF WRN TROUGH. COUPLED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND QUALITY
OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. A THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONG-LIVED/MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT
MIGHT FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS OR
CLUSTERS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE AR...SE OK AND CNTRL/E TX.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY INVOF
RETREATING DRY LINE IN CNTRL OR NW TX AS UPR LOW EDGE E INTO NM AND
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD. WHILE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE...SOME THREAT LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF TX AND AR.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/13/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1249Z (8:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Somewhat surprised they only increased the hail number and didn't go up to 15% for the tornado risk...also notice a fairly large area in an impossible zone of 5% and hatched (how can you have a 10% risk of a significant tornado when there is only a 5% risk of any tornado?)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I checked OKC (really, really close to Norman) and it wasn't as scary looking as Muskogee.

what did you check in OKC? :confused:

Last nights 0Z WRF forecast skew-T soundings, after looking at WRF convective parameters on AccuWx. The WRF looked scariest a bit East of I-35, from just South of Tulsa down to about I-20, or SW Oklahoma and extreme NE Texas, and adjacent Arkansas.


Busy at work, haven't checked the 0Z GFS or morning soundings.

[CrazyC83]

They amended their maps correcting the tornado probabilities to eliminate the "impossible" 5% hatched areas.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1002 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1000 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTH OF MAUD...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF SHELBINA...MOVING EAST AT
26 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBINA...
SHELBYVILLE...
EMDEN...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the storms in Central Texas now will interrupt the return of the best moisture/instability to Oklahoma for this afternoon.


Maybe.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe the storms in Central Texas now will interrupt the return of the best moisture/instability to Oklahoma for this afternoon.


Maybe.

Pretty hard when CAPE values are going to be up to 4000...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the storms in Central Texas now will interrupt the return of the best moisture/instability to Oklahoma for this afternoon.


Maybe.

Pretty hard when CAPE values are going to be up to 4000...

If a big enough group of storms develop in Central Texas, away from the best dynamics, it might keep the CAPE from getting to 4000 Joules/Kg in Oklahoma by reducing available moisture. Especially if debris clouds North of the storms reduce daytime heating.


Edit to add: Wichita area infrared satellite loop. I'd guess the storms South of I-20 are impeding, at least somewhat, the moisture return. The cirrus blowoff, however, is not heading North, and it looks like Oklahoma has low morning stratus that will probably burn off.

[zaqxsw75050]

the new day 1 outlook actually took away the 10% hatched tornado