Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Meso]

GFS 18z 312 hour

[KWT]

Well the 18z GFS sort of develops both system though the stronger of the two is certainly the EPAC system which looks pretty decent. It seems that the GFS tries to merge the two low pressures with the Caribbean system eventually absorbing the landfalling EPAC system however if that occured there'd probably be so much shear on the weaker Sw Caribbean storm i doubt it would survive.

[Meso]

A much weaker run,but still long way out it's bound to spit something different the next run and the next..It continues to show something though....must be around 30th run in a row

[NDG]

lol, 18z gfs is sort of a blend of its previous 12z run, the euro, cmc, ukmet.

[KWT]

Yep its almost like the 18z run just decides to throw the whole lot in and try to develop everything, sort of CMC approach to forecasting I suppose!

EPAC system probably the stronger system on this run, at least within the 3-7 day time period.

[Zadok]

It has been a long time since the last cane we went through here in South Florida. I'm having withdrawal syptoms. First there was Francis and jeanne when we were living in Hobe Sound. Then Wilma at our third floor apartment in West Palm. I will never forget the back end of Wilma after the eye. Hitting the northeast wall of our termite bitten apartment. The andrenaline rush. Better than any thrill from any roller coaster ride I have ever had. Oh well I can only hope.

[micktooth]

Wow, look at this. Almost 20 pages about.....nothing really. Are we ready for the season to begin or what? Hmm, if we are talking about something that might happen 10+ days from now, I wonder if one of these models can also give us the winning powerball numbers! We might have a better chance with that prediction.

[KWT]

Well I wouldn't say nothing the models have been very consistant about some sort of tropical cyclone developing in either the EPAC or the SW Caribbean though which one is uncertain but nearly all models in all runs they do has shown some sort of activity in one of those two places, or in the case of the 18z GFS tonight in both basins!

[gatorcane]

Latest 72 hour TAFB shows a tropical wave approaching the lesser antilles which is the farthest north I have seen a wave thus far this year.....this is probably the same wave with the noticeable circulation we all witnessed as it rolled off of Africa a couple of days ago.

Could this wave be the spark to create cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean? Thoughts welcome

[rainydaze]

Excerpt from Miami NWS today:


THE FCST CONTINUES RATHER UNCERTAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA...BUT
THE BULK OF IT STAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST. ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS.
STILL...BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
CARIB...BUT HOW STRONG AND WHERE IT WOULD GO...IF EVEN ANYTHING
DEVELOPS...IS JUST WAY TOO FAR OUT TO TELL AT THIS TIME.

[Zadok]

Wow, look at this. Almost 20 pages about.....nothing really.

This thread does have a purpose. It's about the fundamental American belief. The idea that when you wish upon a star, your dreams come true.

[RL3AO]

Wow, look at this. Almost 20 pages about.....nothing really.

This thread does have a purpose. It's about the fundamental American belief. The idea that when you wish upon a star, your dreams come true.

That was good.

[lrak]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna_ecg.anim.gif this is a nice animation showing waves all week for my area and then the last few frames show my next opportunity.

Absolutely Zadok, got to wish for something,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7GQzmUNWXs&feature=related

and is this model based off the GFS?

Also hope for those big ones to keep South this year and run fast West like last year too, I hope my memory is thinking correctly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I haven't checked the Japanese Met model on my AccuWx PPV site yet...


It says EPAC through Day 8, not particularly strong.

[Ed Mahmoud]

EastPac

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.05.2008







NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.6N 94.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.05.2008 9.6N 94.8W WEAK

00UTC 27.05.2008 8.7N 92.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.05.2008 8.4N 90.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.05.2008 8.9N 89.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.05.2008 9.6N 89.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.05.2008 10.4N 90.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.05.2008 10.8N 91.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 30.05.2008 11.3N 91.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 30.05.2008 11.9N 91.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps looks interesting tonight. Favoring the GFS...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=144

[boca]

I wonder what causing the mesoscale complex in Central America in the Yucatan and surrounding areas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[wxman57]

I wonder what causing the mesoscale complex in Central America in the Yucatan and surrounding areas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Looks like a weak tropical wave axis passing south of the Yucatan. Can see it moving westward on the water vapor loop.

[Category 5]

Wow, look at this. Almost 20 pages about.....nothing really.

This thread does have a purpose. It's about the fundamental American belief. The idea that when you wish upon a star, your dreams come true.

That was good.

Good enough for my Motivational Poster series on -removed- in fact.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even the 0Z GFS is in the East Pac now.

Good practice at spending time on the blog and looking at models anyway.