Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[KWT]

Well as Derek just said land interaction isn't the biggest problem providing you've got other factors in place along with a decent circulation present. Still looks like the 18z GFS is starting to take this system more and more off to the NE as it tries to go into the weakness present to its NE, not a strong weakness mind you its got to be said by 204hrs.

['CaneFreak]

I dont think this will be much of anything. I don't think it will make it to FL until after the second trough comes down. If you believe model NCEP, the first trough that comes down will not have enough energy to pick up "Arthur" and the second trough that comes down will shear it to death and then pick it up and head it into FL...maybe some rain...but hardly any wind...which is not totally a bad thing...

[stormhunter7]

18z GFS... changin a bit at day 7-8 now... was going west... now slows down and gets into central GOM....

Think we may have to area's to talk about by this weekend... including a CV system... but water temps should hurt if the farther west it moves... into the atlantic

[canetracker]

The latest run looks very similar to Arlene, 2005, in that the low pressure system developed over Central America and the system became a depression after moving over the WCAR.

I agree with the similarities in Arlene.

I have not been on a vacation since June '05 in Pensacola. TS Arlene surprised us during that stay. Now, the GFS is trying to develop a storm when my family and I are heading back to Florida for the first week in June.

I don't like the fact that the GFS keeps hanging on to development, but do question this storm surviving land. I guess time will tell.

[KWT]

Yep canefreak if we take the 18z at face value thats true however its a very tight line, if the high is even a little weaker between 72-144hrs its going to have a greater chance of getting picked up by the first trough that digs down and then there are other internal structure situations such as reformations of the center which could also lead to osme uncertainty.
I agree with Derek I think any CV TC at this time of year will probably end up being a GFS fantasy.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, it indicates a weak FL landfall in the no man's land of +160-384 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_288l.gif

Of course, this is the very long range.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Earliest CV storm that made it to North America that I can remember off the top of my head was Bertha in early July 1996. That I can remember, anyway.

[MiamiensisWx]

Tropical wave axis and low level convergence over northern South America is advancing westward toward the southern Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Yep it sure is miamiensiswx, its going to have to be watched to see whether we can get anything to develop along the wave axis as it heads closer to that area of increased voricity.

Also i wouldn't trust the long range for track anyway given its lower resolution.

[Derek Ortt]

I could see MID June for a CV storm, but MAY? MAY? Please

[KWT]

Well actually Derek it closes the Atlantic system up on the 1st of June...
However I get your point and I agree its too early to be watching for those sort sof systems yet IMO though maybe when its much further west?

Anyway will be very interesting to see how the convection holds up tomorrow morning when it usually dies down somewhat.

[HURAKAN]

Is there a trough over Panamá or is it just the topography causing the wind counter-clockwise rotation?

[KatDaddy]

Agree with Derek on a CV storm this early. Its just way to early and should it occur it would be a fluke.

[Derek Ortt]

if the models were not going with a CV storm, I'd take the Caribbean solution a bit more seriously.

[Cyclone1]

I just ignore the CV storm and watch the plausible system.

[Derek Ortt]

But that CV phantom should be sending some major red flags that something may not quite be right with the models

[MiamiensisWx]

I just ignore the CV storm and watch the plausible system.

Exactly... it does not send any "red flags" of error, since the operational GFS is handling the CONUS pattern very well.

I also do not monitor or consider the long range guidance as reliable beyond +160 hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A model that is producing a CV storm in MAY is a model that should be considered highly suspect.

I am wondering about the parameterization changes made during the offseason

I don' even know if technically 1996/Bertha was technically a CV storm. But were there any earlier?

[KWT]

Maybe Derek though I agree with the others I think this Caribbean system is far more likely to occur given climo and other factors in place, I do agree though that its a little worrying when models create such systems that aren't all that likely but then again you can usually discard them.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I assume GFS is on the system near 4ºN, 0ºE/W?

Besides early season and all, it is awfully low in latitude.