Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Opal storm]

Unless the GFS or something shows something drastically different tonight than what it's been showing the past day or so I'm about done with this thing.

[KWT]

Looks to me that the EPAC has a much better chance of developing than in the Caribbean....just like I posted the other day. Still a slight chance of something in the Caribbean however. Looks like the GFS has busted......MGC

To be fair the EPAC system doesn't look all that great IMO right now, its got a circulation but as someone else has said the greatest convergence and voricity by far is in the Sw Caribbean, I think the GFS has been keying into this and I think it would be foolish to rule it out given there has been constant convection down there over the last 24hrs...

[jaxfladude]

Stick a fork in this "phantom storm" it is not going to happen....
50 pages and 982-ish posts all for naught....next....

[HURAKAN]

Stick a fork in this "phantom storm" it is not going to happen....
50 pages and 982-ish posts all for naught....next....

It's better than nothing. I mean, there is a disturbance and computer models continue to hint POSSIBLE FUTURE development. Its a wait game and you're beginning, or have already, lost patience!!!

[Thunder44]

I think some of you aren't giving enough credence to the EPAC system. Unlike on the Atlantic side, these systems tend ramp up quickly out there, under a less than stellar enviornment. This one in EPAC already has decent outlfow channel southside and there are some signs of convective banding. It just needs more defined center. I would not be suprised to see this at TS status tomorrow. The Ukmet is so far handling this area the best.

[MiamiensisWx]

Some are already submitting to "groupthink" and decide to nearly write away the prospects of Caribbean development. Here's the crux: too many people have been expecting more rapid cyclogenesis, and they write it off when it doesn't occur. This was never going to occur literally overnight; in fact, I never expected development to take off until today through Thursday, and I noted it would be a slow process and these days are only the initial stages. You can't say the operational GFS, its ensembles, and other models "busted" until we have entered the time frame in which development was progged. Very little has changed over the past 24 hours, but this was entirely expected and anticipated for the Caribbean area of interest. The EPAC surface low would likely become more organized in the very short term, as mentioned by a preceding poster. The GFS also progged EPAC development around this time.

In fact, it's looking increasingly decent. If this continues and more well defined low level circulation develops, the outflow could impringe on the Atlantic side and slow any potential cyclogenesis in the S Caribbean in the short term.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Here is a interesting EPAC discussion from TPC about this complex situation:

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SEVERAL
CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA WITH THE MOST
PRONOUNCED SWIRL NEAR 09N89W...IN THE AREA WHERE OUR MARINE
PRODUCTS HAVE SUGGESTED A SURFACE LOW WOULD DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PERHAPS DRIFT
NE LATER THIS WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN DESCRIBED IN DETAIL ABOVE
IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WOULD
ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MAY ADD THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO GET THIS SPINNING. NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT
S OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING A SW TO W 20 TO 25
KT WIND AND SEAS TO ABOUT 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2149.shtml?

[KWT]

Thats very interesting cycloneye and I think its what some of us have been saying, that there is an area that is condusive for development but it probably will need something to spark it off and the TW heading into the area in the next 36hrs may do that.

Certainly shouldn't rule out development, esp when the pros are mentioning the possiblity.

[wxman57]

Stick a fork in this "phantom storm" it is not going to happen....
50 pages and 982-ish posts all for naught....next....

You guys know me, I'm usually not bullish at all on development of most systems discussed here. But what I'm observing in the SW Caribbean today is very much like the GFS has been predicting for quite a while by today, May 27th. Convection is on the increase and there is evidence of a broad low pressure area forming east of Nicaragua. That's as much as I would have expected by now, given the GFS predictions. So I am concerned that development is progressing as the GFS has forecast, so, in my mind, chances of development are increasing.

Still, chances of development aren't high. But I'll be keeping a close eye out on the development of convection in the SW Caribbean through the next week. It's a prime area for early season development. I wouldn't be surprised at all if convection increases enough to warrant an invest by Thursday. At the office, we're preparing as if we'll see a TS in the western Caribbean by the weekend. Have to be ready.

P.S.
Another "development", after reading my post, I think I just set a record for the times I used the word "development" in a post.

[KWT]

Yep may well have the record for that wxman57. As you say thus far the GFS prediction has been pretty decent.

As for the 18z run well the SW Caribbean system is still there, lingers close to or over the Yucatan region for quite a time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

Seems to track towards texas on this run in the lower resolution part of the run.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



The 18z GFS run has a lopsided system moving to South Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've been staring again with untrained eye, East Pac is looking better, I don't think Caribbean will go.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps continues to insist on Cuba/FL straits scenario at day 5. The 18Z is slightly further west than the 12 Z.


H+120

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120

[NDG]

Stick a fork in this "phantom storm" it is not going to happen....
50 pages and 982-ish posts all for naught....next....

You guys know me, I'm usually not bullish at all on development of most systems discussed here. But what I'm observing in the SW Caribbean today is very much like the GFS has been predicting for quite a while by today, May 27th. Convection is on the increase and there is evidence of a broad low pressure area forming east of Nicaragua. That's as much as I would have expected by now, given the GFS predictions. So I am concerned that development is progressing as the GFS has forecast, so, in my mind, chances of development are increasing.

Still, chances of development aren't high. But I'll be keeping a close eye out on the development of convection in the SW Caribbean through the next week. It's a prime area for early season development. I wouldn't be surprised at all if convection increases enough to warrant an invest by Thursday. At the office, we're preparing as if we'll see a TS in the western Caribbean by the weekend. Have to be ready.

P.S.
Another "development", after reading my post, I think I just set a record for the times I used the word "development" in a post.

Amen wxman57, the gfs so far has pan out exactly as it has been coming out with for the past few days, too early to stick a fork to any Caribbean development, if today was Friday or Saturday, then it could have been different.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting

[HURAKAN]

I have learned over the years that is wiser to wait and see than to just guess. Does anyone remember how many people killed 90L/Humberto?!?!?!?

[Aric Dunn]

everyone is going to love this .... lol

gfdl
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

hwrf
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Crazier as you get down the list!!!

[Vortex]

We should see convection begin to fire over the next few hours across the SW carribean. Many of the players(upper diffluence, broad low pressure and TW as the trigger)are now on deck..Could be an impressive complex of very deep convection later tonight...

[cycloneye]

Caribbean 8 PM Discussion by TPC:

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD MONSOON GYRE LIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ITCZ
AXIS SITUATED N OF PANAMA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PANAMA
CITY...PUERTO LIMON...AND SAN ANDRES SUGGEST THAT A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N81W BUT THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION IS STILL MOSTLY DISORGANIZED. AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO BELIZE...WITH 50 KT W/SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N INTO PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN LIFTING
N INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 75W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 52723.tdsc