First Light Image (now 2nd image) - New GFS

[wxman57]

The disturbance looks like it got its act together again under cover of darkness:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/claudette.gif">

It would appear to be on the threshold of developing into a TD again, maybe not today, but by tomorrow. Once the disturbance nears south of Jamaica, low-level winds should relax as the ridge to the north weakens. The new (06Z) GFS indicates a track to the western tip of Cuba by late Thursday then grinds it to a halt in the south-central Gulf as steering currents appear to evaporate (as far as the GFS is concerned, that is). I would thnk that there's a good chance for a northward turn towarn New Orleans to the FL Panhandle, though. The GFS kind of hints at something moving toward New Orleans, but loses it 12-24hrs later.

But I should point out - even though the track <i>appears</i> to be very similar to Lili in some respects, it is very different in one major way. Steeering currents across the Gulf appear to be much weaker than they were for Lili. This means that confidence levels in any one forecast track will be much lower. A lot will depend on how strong this storm gets, whether it can move far enough north to get picked up by that upper trof along the Gulf coast, etc. If the storm gets stronger, it could very well head farther to the west.

06 GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Looks like I'll be working all weekend.

[Guest]

Wxman - has the forward speed slowed down any? Thanks for posting the images - by my untrained eyes - it looks better this morning then it did last night.

An interesting week ahead.

Patricia

[wxman57]

Ticka,

It's kind of hard to tell from home whether it's slowed down or not. I suspect maybe a little. The farther west it gets, the slower it shoud track. I'll be heading to work shortly and will have a LOT more tools to work with. I used to be able to log into my unix workstation from home and run GARP, but our TSS people deemed that a security risk.

As a side note - there seem to be quite a few people here from Houston. I'm in Westbury (just south of Meyerland).

[Guest]

Ok - I'll check back later when I get to work. Just didn't see the numbers in the 5:30 outlook.

Yeah we have quite a few from Houston - I think each one of us has an interest in the tropics and we are waiting for the storm as they say not if - but when.

Have a great day Wxman - its going to be busy for you.

[wxman57]

Once I get to work, I'll do an overlay of latest visible satellite, surface reports (land and ships/buoys), and upper-level wind streamlines and post it here.

[PTrackerLA]

I agree that this system looks like its getting its act together this morning, although it still seems to be moving very fast. As ticka said, an interesting week ahead...

[wx247]

Any update on the speed this system is moving? It looks to me to still be moving fairly quickly, but maybe not as fast as it was 18-24 hours ago.

[vbhoutex]

Any update on the speed this system is moving? It looks to me to still be moving fairly quickly, but maybe not as fast as it was 18-24 hours ago.

Latest official is at 20mph but it appears to have slowed a little to me.

[ColdFront77]

My 25.33 miles per hour that I mentioned in the chatroom the night before last was certainly true. I calculated this average speed over a 7 1/2 to 8 hour period. Then the next few Tropical Weather Outlooks indicated a 20 to 25 mile per hour speed. A slow down to 20 miles per hour, now, seems reasonable.

[southerngale]

Ticka,


As a side note - there seem to be quite a few people here from Houston. I'm in Westbury (just south of Meyerland).

I'm not in Houston but a little to your east...in Beaumont.