Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline

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gatorcane
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Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline

#1 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:25 pm

I was perusing some sites and came across these maps. Check out your area based on the category of hurricane

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/ba ... turn.shtml
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:28 pm

Wow what a great resource that is gatorcane thanks I'm going to have to save this post.

Return rate for a cat-1 in S.Florida just 4-5 years...whilst a return rate of once in 68 years for a major in the New York area which is really food for thought...
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:31 pm

KWT wrote:Wow what a great resource that is gatorcane thanks I'm going to have to save this post.

Return rate for a cat-1 in S.Florida just 4-5 years...whilst a return rate of once in 68 years for a major in the New York area which is really food for thought...


Some interesting extremes:

Return period for NY for a CAT 5 hurricane is 430 years for long island.

Return period for Miami for a CAT 5 hurricane is 33 years.

Map snippets from site below:

Image
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Re: Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline

#4 Postby jinftl » Thu Jun 05, 2008 2:58 pm

Very interesting...last hurricane in South Fla was Wilma in 2005....if the return period stats hold, we aren't too far off from the next!
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Re: Hurricane Return Period Maps for U.S Coastline

#5 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 05, 2008 3:07 pm

jinftl wrote:Very interesting...last hurricane in South Fla was Wilma in 2005....if the return period stats hold, we aren't too far off from the next!


Wilma was a 2 when it came across SE Florida. Based on return period for a CAT 2, West Palm Beach is 10 and Miami is 6. If we take a rough mean of these numbers to get a ballpark figure we have 8. So I would say return period analysis shows that SE Florida should see its next CAT 2 by no sooner than 2005 + 8 or 2013.

Note: return period analysis is based on historical data and does not rule out the possibility that any scenario can happen at anytime.

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#6 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 05, 2008 3:10 pm

Of course the problem with the average is that its going to include the queiter periods as well as the more active ones and whilst a slower season doesn't always means less landfalls obviously if you have more hurricanes present there is going to be a heightened chance that one of them will hit sooner or later.
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