June 10-15th severe weather thread

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 120105Z - 120300Z

DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 509...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY
AS 02Z-03Z ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHEAST MN.

A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS /WITH HISTORY OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS/ CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN IA AS OF 0045Z.
REGARDING THE NORTH EXTENT OF A SEVERE THREAT...EVEN WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/ANVIL SEEDING...THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN...WITH SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH
A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST INTO SOUTHEAST MN GIVEN ISSUES OF
DESTABILIZATION AND EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH IS LIKELY BY MID/LATE EVENING IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH...AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY INCREASING THROUGH
MID EVENING AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 06/12/2008


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

44669468 45239430 44839280 43899194 40789289 41029431
42479423 44029389

[snoopj]

4 fatalities at the boy scout camp have been CONFIRMED by the Boy Scouts via KETV-Omaha.

[CrazyC83]

(402) 431-9272 for those possibly affected if anyone here (unlikely) has someone they know there.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 120053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU MID EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
N CNTRL/NE KS...SE NE...NW MO AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL IA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY....

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VLY...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING...
WITHIN A PRE-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THIS EXTENDS ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE...FROM CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WESTERN IOWA...INTO THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ROUGHLY
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL
LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA/ WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING.

THE MOST VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF ANOTHER IMPULSE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING IS PROGGED TO LIFT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT. AND...COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A
SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL 850 MB JET /50-60+ KT/...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF GENERATING A
BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE 12/03-06Z TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...IN MORE DISCRETE STORMS UNTIL THEN...DEEP LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/ FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AND...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY SPREAD INTO/THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. BUT...A 50+ KT DEEP LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW MAY STILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...COUPLED WITH THE ONSET
OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING...APPEAR TO BE RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. A STEADY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/12/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0113Z (9:13PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
IAC071-129-155-NEC025-055-153-120215-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0050.080612T0113Z-080612T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
813 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF OMAHA...
SARPY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
MILLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A
TORNADIC STORM AND TRAINED SPOTTERS CONFIRM A TORNADO. SPOTTERS
REPORTED A TORNADO 2 TO 3 MILES EAST OF LOUISVILLE. THE TORNADO WAS
LOCATED EAST OF NEAR CEDAR CREEK...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF
OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. OTHER CIRCULATIONS NOTED NEAR
CEDAR CREEK.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAPILLION...PLATTSMOUTH...LA VISTA...RALSTON...OFFUTT AFB...PACIFIC
JUNCTION...BELLEVUE...OMAHA...GLENWOOD...COUNCIL BLUFFS...
MALVERN...TREYNOR...EMERSON...UNDERWOOD...MACEDONIA...CARSON AND
OAKLAND...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR A PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF A BASEMENT IS NOT
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. GO TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4094 9540 4078 9635 4079 9642 4097 9643
4114 9615 4143 9581 4144 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 235DEG 33KT 4106 9598

$$

ZAPOTOCNY

[brunota2003]

The sun is setting, not that we can see it. It's VERY dark to the west.


Sirens going off here... again... still...

Just said you are in the path of whatever is in that storm...Be safe! (Even though you are not online at the moment). Spotters in the area say "*something*" is in that storm. They just are not sure exactly what. The surface winds are being pulled towards the hook, per a spotter northeast of it...hopefully nothing more than inflow, but judging by the direction, probably not a good situation. Same spotter going through hail core (said marble to golf ball sized), could hear the hail hitting the vehicle over the phone.

Another spotter: Funnel cloud moving ENE with this storm...missed the location though.

[senorpepr]

The sun is setting, not that we can see it. It's VERY dark to the west.


Sirens going off here... again... still...

Just said you are in the path of whatever is in that storm...Be safe! (Even though you are not online at the moment). Spotters in the area say "*something*" is in that storm. They just are not sure exactly what. The surface winds are being pulled towards the hook, per a spotter northeast of it...hopefully nothing more than inflow, but judging by the direction, probably not a good situation. Same spotter going through hail core (said marble to golf ball sized), could hear the hail hitting the vehicle over the phone.

Another spotter: Funnel cloud moving ENE with this storm...missed the location though.

I know that spotter... that was about a mile from me. Our family was taking shelter. Lost power for a couple of seconds. No damage witnessed here... no hail.

[CrazyC83]

The sun is setting, not that we can see it. It's VERY dark to the west.


Sirens going off here... again... still...

Just said you are in the path of whatever is in that storm...Be safe! (Even though you are not online at the moment). Spotters in the area say "*something*" is in that storm. They just are not sure exactly what. The surface winds are being pulled towards the hook, per a spotter northeast of it...hopefully nothing more than inflow, but judging by the direction, probably not a good situation. Same spotter going through hail core (said marble to golf ball sized), could hear the hail hitting the vehicle over the phone.

Another spotter: Funnel cloud moving ENE with this storm...missed the location though.

I know that spotter... that was about a mile from me. Our family was taking shelter. Lost power for a couple of seconds. No damage witnessed here... no hail.

Were you in the "calm spot"? They were talking about it on KETV that there was dead calm near the (probable) tornado...

[brunota2003]

Base at 9:20 EDT:


Another Base:
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/9673/omaha2rl9.png

SRV:


VIL:


Another VIL:
http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/4352/omahavilfl7.png

[KatDaddy]

The severe season just never ends. This is a another extreme severe weather outbreak tonight. 26 tornadoes in 3 hours! What a season. I feel for everyone affected. I only hope the hurricane season is not this intense. I hope eveyone on the board is safe.

[btangy]

Very concerned about the storm approaching Salina, KS right now. Apparent long track tornadic supercell will pass over or just to the S of Salina.

[Squarethecircle]

0_o

I wasn't quite expecting this when I got back.

[senorpepr]

Were you in the "calm spot"? They were talking about it on KETV that there was dead calm near the (probable) tornado...

That report was about a mile NE of me. I was between that report and the tornado.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, I just logged in and found all this, Wow wish i was here earlier. Rough Evening.

[brunota2003]

Lots and lots of reports of flooding going on...water running over roads and bridges.

[RL3AO]

I'm in the new watch. The line should reach me in about an hour.

[Siberian Express]

super cell bearing down on NWS Mpls. Must be a bit hard to discern when they are that close.

[btangy]

The flooding is serious and unprecedented for many rivers in Iowa currently. The Wapsipinicon River, Cedar River, and Iowa River continue to rise and will crest at record levels at cities including Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Waterloo, etc. The Mississippi is forecasted to go in to a major flood rivaling levels seen in the historic '93 flood. Depending on how much rain this current system dumps today and tomorrow across the area, the situation could become even more dire.

[Cyclenall]

I didn't expect to see 11 tornado warnings at once tonight. It appears June is going to be murder.

[btangy]

Supercell near Ellsworth, KS has a incredible radar return:

78dBz, VIL = 81kg/m^2 according to Topeka radar
73dBz, VIL = 91kg/m^2 according to Wichita radar

There's probably hailstones the size of grapefruit falling from that cell right now.