Potential in the GOM?

[lrak]

I know the shear and everything else is against formation, BUT how bout the little spin at 19N 95W, the visible is definitely producing an illusion

42055 buoy's pressure is falling and the wind just became South, and Veracruz has a ENE wind, Hmmm...-removed- at its best?

[HouTXmetro]

I know the shear and everything else is against formation, BUT how bout the little spin at 19N 95W, the visible is definitely producing an illusion

42055 buoy's pressure is falling and the wind just became South, and Veracruz has a ENE wind, Hmmm...-removed- at its best?

There is all type of spinning in the GOM.

[BreinLa]

Local met just said it had a MLC and was moving toward La

[KWT]

Very interesting blob of convection, should give some fairly decent convection as long as it doesn't decay over the next 6hrs.
Also a interesting little area of convection in the BoC presently, may need to be watched even though shear is probably still a little on the high side.

Still a couple of areas that are showing some convection developing, nice for June.

[NDG]

I am sorry to say to those of you in TX, but most of the moisture with this mid and upper level low will be pushing more towards LA and on eastward towards FL, ridge to your west will keep most of TX dry, things could get interesting if some sort of vorticity sticks around in the NE GOM later on the weekend before being picked up by the trough early next week.

[KWT]

Messy convection still in the GoM and BoC but there is nothing even close to being organised out there at the moment. Still maybe worth watching but can't see anything from it right now given the weak convection we have at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO HAS LOST IDENTITY
AND IS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0555.shtml?

[KWT]

mind you the convection has just strengthened a little bit in the western portion of the gulf of mexico.

I want to see Vis imagery loop because ther edoe seem to to be some sort of weak circulation higher up, don't think its even close to being closed but it does look a touch intertesting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

An area of storms belching out outflow boundaries isn't in any hurry to become tropical.


But I'm not complaining. If that one arc cloud racing out towards Texas keeps going, it should arrive in the Houston area just after lunch, and if the sea breeze hasn't already sparked some storms, that should get them going.

[Sanibel]

This is the SW Caribbean wave forming off the NW tip of Yucatan near 21.5N-91.5W.

Weak formation. Definite cyclogenesis.

Wouldn't be surprised if it wiped out.

[HURAKAN]

Tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico between the Florida Keys and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The thunderstorm activity is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is moving northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. I'm not expecting this to develop, but we should keep an eye on it. None of the computer models are forecasting development of a tropical depression in the Atlantic in the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

[srainhoutx]

Pressures remain high across GOM. No convergence at this time. Let's see what the day/evening bring as this area of disturbed weather "drifts" north/northwest.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like a lot of spinning going on in the GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a lot of spinning going on in the GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Change that URL from "vis" to "wv", and you'll see that isn't a surface or low level low pressure.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If thunderstorms started forming near/North the Western tip of Cuba, under the shortwave ridging induced between the upper lows, then it might mean something.


The outflow boundary/arc cloud that was racing towards Texas is losing definition, but the cumulus is building nicely around the Galleria, and I suspect better shower coverage for a dry S.E. Texas than yesterday.


In my unoffical SWAG, with extra sig figs to make it look impressive, this has a 2.174% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

[micktooth]

How does an ULL, work its way down to the surface? I know it doesn't happen often, but how long would it take for this to occur? (I'm not saying that will happen here of course) Just wanted some info from you experts.

[cycloneye]

Floater 3 is over the GOM area.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=6

Based on reports from ships and buoys in the area, pressures are increasing, which indicates that nothing is happening at this moment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi isn't impressed, and if Bastardi and the Canadian Global aren't impressed, there is no chance of development.


BTW, I agree with JB's position on AGW, but he spends way too much time now on the PPV column, and now even his videos, talking about it. He is getting like the Weather Channel, even if his view on AGW isn't the mainstream/TWC view, more and more global warming talk, less and less weather.

[HURAKAN]

Our generation will be defined by AGW. If it's true or false, the argument will continue for the years to come. I think it's true but that's another story and for another thread.

I'm not impressed by this system either but weather is always a surprise and we like surprises!!!