Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[KWT]

Good circulation there but stable air seems to be fairly well embedded into that circulation. Nice lump of convection to the SE of the circulation which has been slowly extending NW over the last 12hrs.

[cycloneye]

NHC is doing a test run of this system.No official invest yet.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al812008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200806181406
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
NONAME, AL, L, , , , , 81, 2008, TD, O, 2008061812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL812008
AL, 81, 2008061712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 380W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 81, 2008061718, , BEST, 0, 120N, 400W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 81, 2008061800, , BEST, 0, 119N, 423W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 81, 2008061806, , BEST, 0, 119N, 440W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 81, 2008061812, , BEST, 0, 120N, 460W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 0, 0, 0,

[KWT]

That would suggest though cycloneye that they are going to tag it as an invest if they are doing tests on it, also whilst it doesn't look like forming it has got a circulation so would be a good little area to test on.

We will see if 92L comes up soon.

[cycloneye]

Again,NHC is doing tests on this system.Here are tests for ship.No official invest right now.This is 81L.

Code: Select all

               *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      NONAME  AL812008  06/18/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    21    22    21    20    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS    18    19
V (KT) LAND       20    20    21    22    21    20    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    19    19    18    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS

SHEAR (KTS)       26    26    28    32    36    47    43    39    42    34    33    30    30
SHEAR DIR        293   295   285   280   277   263   270   262   283   282   280   282   279
SST (C)         26.6  26.7  26.6  26.6  26.6  27.1  27.6  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.3  28.3  28.1
POT. INT. (KT)   123   124   123   123   122   128   134   141   141   142   144   143   140
ADJ. POT. INT.   125   126   124   124   123   127   135   143   143   143   144   143   139
200 MB T (C)   -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -54.9 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    10    10    11    10    11    10    11    10    11    10
700-500 MB RH     52    53    48    49    49    50    52    51    55    50    52    52    52
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR     7   -13   -31   -35   -40   -48   -48   -50   -38   -33     3    15    -3
200 MB DIV        14     7     5     1    -1    16    -1     1    16   -12    -7    -6    -4
LAND (KM)       1057   990   954   922   928   683   530   369   213   143   153    89   326
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  12.6  13.1  13.6  14.0  14.9  15.4  15.8  16.0  16.5  16.7  17.0  17.3
LONG(DEG W)     46.0  47.8  49.5  51.3  53.0  56.3  59.7  63.3  67.1  70.7  74.3  77.8  81.3
STM SPEED (KT)    18    18    18    18    17    16    17    18    18    17    17    17    16
HEAT CONTENT      14    15    15    15    17    30    39    53    47    67    61    71    70

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20      CX,CY: -19/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  639  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  15.3 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  10.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   0.   4.   9.  16.  22.  28.  32.  36.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   0.   0.  -2.  -8. -18. -29. -39. -46. -50. -50. -50.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   8.   9.   9.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -4.  -6.  -9. -11.  -8.  -2.   1.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.   3.   2.   3.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      0.   1.   2.   1.   0.  -4.  -6.  -9. -11.  -8.  -2.  -1.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL812008     NONAME 06/18/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  29.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 104.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.2 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:   7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.1 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  15.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL812008     NONAME 06/18/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY 

[KWT]

Oh fair enough they just labelled it 81L as a test. Got to admit its about to run into some pretty huge shear, SHIPS progs 47kts of shear in 36hrs!

[Steve H.]

Shear will be the main inhibiting factor. But once the trough moves out of the East, it may abate. nice wave coming off Africa now.. Sign of things to come.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Nice Sat.image there Hurakan, you can see the way the circulation seems to be dragging up air from the south and the ITCZ. Also can't really miss the convective blob to the SE of the circulation.

Finally you can see the next wave coming off Africa, fairly decent convection present along that wave axis but not as deep as the mid-atlantic wave was at the same time.

[HURAKAN]

Next wave and our "invest"!!

[KWT]

Yep not a bad wave coming off Africa will be watching that one as well as the mid-Atlantic wave over the next 24-48hrs, also looks like a decent area of convection over E.Africa.

[americanrebel]

[quote="HURAKAN"]Next wave and our "invest"!!


So are you saying we now have 92L?

also a side note, just got a new job as a live in General Manager of a hotel in Intracoastal City, La., hoping we don't have anything major come my way. This hotel has just been bought and we are renovating it, it has not been open since Rita.

[cycloneye]

The Low Center very close.

[KWT]

That looks like being very close to being closed off IMo cycloneye, maybe a touch elongated but that may just be the shear making it look that way?

Can see the larger area of convection also just on the SE side of the image.

[cycloneye]

Are we in June 18 or in August 18?

[Stratosphere747]

That graphical map should seriously be banned...

Seriously..

[DESTRUCTION5]

That graphical map should seriously be banned...

Seriously..

LOL I agree..It reminds me of Atari!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 181733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

Next wave and our "invest"!!


So are you saying we now have 92L?

also a side note, just got a new job as a live in General Manager of a hotel in Intracoastal City, La., hoping we don't have anything major come my way. This hotel has just been bought and we are renovating it, it has not been open since Rita.

I knew it was going to cause commotion. I mean't "our," meaning S2K, not that it was a real invest.

[Frank2]

Per the TWO and forecast strong shear (very strong), the wave is looking toasty...

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM EDT Discussion by TPC:

AXNT20 KNHC 181731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 13N47W WITH SIGNATURE INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN EVIDENT
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
40W-44W. THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A VERY GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=