Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Is that interesting system almost to emerge West Africa the one GFS hints for some development or is another one that will emerge later?

[cycloneye]

From the 8 PM Discussion.

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 5N35W 5N47W INTO NE
BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING FROM 5N-10N AND E OF 20W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THE DAKAR
VERTICAL SOUNDING IS SHOWING NW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...INDICATING
THAT THE WAVE HAS NOT CROSS THIS AREA YET. IN SPITE OF THESE
INDICATIONS...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHERE THE WAVE AXIS LIES.
FOR THAT REASON...WE WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER DATA BEFORE PLACING
THE WAVE

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL SURGE OF
MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE...AND OVER ILHA
DE MARAJO IN BRAZIL.

[Meso]

Think the GFS one may be the one after, It begins to emerge off the African coast in around 120 hours or so..

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WEAK INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL
LOW-AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE BETWEEN 49W-52W.

[Meso]

Looking at the large satellite image I pasted on the previous page and the hour that the GFS moves the wave off Africa I'm going to guess the wave that it deepens is the one currently over Nigeria

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WEAK INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY SMALL
LOW-AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE BETWEEN 49W-54W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA
AND IS NOW ALONG 18W S OF 18N. INITIAL ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE
MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DEPICT A ENE-SE
WIND SHIFT AT 850 MB SUGGESTING THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION
THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW HAS
DISPLACED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 22W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA
AND IS NOW ALONG 18W S OF 18N. INITIAL ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE
MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DEPICT A ENE-SE
WIND SHIFT AT 850 MB SUGGESTING THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION
THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW HAS
DISPLACED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 22W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

And to complete Cycloneye,
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 53W S OF 11N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. THE SOUNDING FROM CAYENNE...FRENCH GUIANA...
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION LATE WED OR EARLY
THIS MORNING. SFC OBS IN SURINAME SHOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION SURROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-10N
BETWEEN 48W-57W.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Hmm some convection out there but nothing too noteable to be honest but as others have been constantly stating recently its not really the time when you'd normally expect to see these sorts of clusters develop but in another months time maybe.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 262359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC LIES ALONG 19W S OF
14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT-8 DATA THRU
1630Z SHOWED A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE. OBSERVATIONS ARE VERY LIMITED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLC AFTER THE LAST AVAILABLE METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY FROM
1630Z....WITH NO CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AVAILABLE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE FOUND OVER EASTERN SURINAME ALONG
55W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS CONFIRMED BY SFC OBS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SURINAME THAT CONTINUE TO SHOW WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH
GUIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
FOUND NORTH OF THE WESTERN FRENCH GUIANA COAST S OF 8N.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC LIES ALONG 20W/21W S
OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW
TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND
LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND
OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

[xironman]

A little bit of action around 33 W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html. Seems like Quikscat just caught the edge of it http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

[Gustywind]

A little bit of action around 33 W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html. Seems like Quikscat just caught the edge of it http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

Maybe a cluster of strong convection is trying to form....embedded in the ITCZ.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S
OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SRN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 54W-57W AND ALSO OVER SRN GUYANA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N20W 11N23W 5N40W TO S
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 19W-29W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

[xironman]

Yeah,

I am down to watching clusters of storms on the ITCZ, but at least on the RGB it is a nice cluster http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

Yep nice looking area of convection there down though probably well attached to the ITCZ. Still got the same story as the last load of waves, SAL and all that comes with it to the north of the wave close by and shear further west near the Windwind islands.


(EDIT- Haha whoops don't know why I put that down thats what I meant Windward my bad!)

[Gustywind]

Yep nice looking area of convection there down though probably well attached to the ITCZ. Still got the same story as the last load of waves, SAL and all that comes with it to the north of the wave close by and shear further west near the Whirlwind islands.

KWT what does it mean Whirlwind islands???
Is that another word to say Windwards Islands? for my untrained eyes?
Tell me please i would be eager to know what are you talking about!

[Gustywind]

Yeah,

I am down to watching clusters of storms on the ITCZ, but at least on the RGB it is a nice cluster http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

verz am
OK you're are not the only one xiroman, i'm amazed forthe moment to see the high numbers of the twaves this year especially in May and June definitely decents and frequents, we should wait and see next month, things can chang earlier than predicted, but it's an nice are of strong convection embedded in the ITCZ...looking at the RGB tkanks.
Shear and SAL are so strong, i'm not very confident to see a very well defined wave fort the 72h, as usual let's wait and see...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7sht.html
Awesome shear tendency! pretty normal at this time of the year so bye bye....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Anything else? you want un nexpresso or a shearexpresso?