TC Bertha

[wxman57]

It's very interesting to indicate that while many "people I disagree with" were calling for a tropical depression/storm/hurricane, many experts were calling for the demise of the disturbance. Who won?

I always like the expert opinion but we need to keep our options open.

You'd better re-check the posts. I don't think any of us pros were saying it would dissipate. I was pointing out that in order to be upgraded by the NHC it would have to develop/maintain deep convection over the center. I said that the window opportunity for development was the first 2-3 days of the invest, when SSTs were warmer. Beyond that, development was less likely.

[HURAKAN]

Agree. Maybe "demise" was not the best word to use.

[DESTRUCTION5]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK
AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.

I think we should Frame this....Someone is praises the GFS...

[chadtm80]

It's very interesting to indicate that while many "people I disagree with" were calling for a tropical depression/storm/hurricane, many experts were calling for the demise of the disturbance. Who won?

I always like the expert opinion but we need to keep our options open.

You'd better re-check the posts. I don't think any of us pros were saying it would dissipate. I was pointing out that in order to be upgraded by the NHC it would have to develop/maintain deep convection over the center. I said that the window opportunity for development was the first 2-3 days of the invest, when SSTs were warmer. Beyond that, development was less likely.

what else is umm "interesting" is those that call for all invests to develope.. If you call for each and everyone to develope your going to end up being right sometime or another

[HURAKAN]

Interesting look!!

[NDG]

Good chance of being upgraded by 5 AM if not by 11AM at the latest if deep convection continues near LLC, a couple of more hours and the first vis sat pic should come in.

I usually charge for my services, j/k

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Agree. Maybe "demise" was not the best word to use.

But if you'd like to keep track for the whole season, we can see who's right more often. Results might look like this:

people I disagree with - 100% of all disturbances will develop (invest or not). Correct about 10% of the time.

Pros - About 20-30% of all invests will develop. Correct about 90% of the time.

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't completely rule out the storm being trapped by the high off the east U.S. Coast and driven westward, but I think it's a low probability at this point. I don't think that any storm that's formed so far to the east and so far north has ever impacted the Caribbean or the U.S. And with a TUTT in its path, this one won't likely reach the U.S. either.

So far the system has behaved as expected. I would say it has a bit more convection than I anticipated but I did say that it could reach depression status at tops and generally head WNW to W. I'm still skeptical about how it responds to the patch of lower SSTs just out ahead of the system. That should take down some of the convection at least temporarily.

The TUTT and weakness can definitely change in 4-5 days by the time it gets farther west. Considering its July, we would expect strong ridging to possibly exist across the North Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Good chance of being upgraded by 5 AM if not by 11AM at the latest if deep convection continues near LLC, a couple of more hours and the first vis sat pic should come in.

I usually charge for my services, j/k

You're hired! Let's see, we now need someone to cover nights (7pm-6am) Friday through Sunday. Can I count you in?

[KWT]

Well there you go we have TD2, a very very early Cape verde wave and probably the most easterly forming system in July.

Its looking very good right now and I also wouldn't be surprised if this becomes Bertha. After 24hrs heat content drops a lot and then the real question is how far west it can get. If it stays in the cooler waters it will probably hold steady and maybe even decay but if it can make it to the warmer waters about 40-45W then chances for a stronger system rise somewhat IF the shear doesn't become too much of an issue.

I weren't sure it could do this this far east but the system developed a good convective burst and that is good enough it seems.

[HURAKAN]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2008 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 12:45:14 N Lon : 23:12:08 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.2 2.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -43.7C Cloud Region Temp : -44.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[littlevince]

Interesting look!!

Yes.

[NDG]

Good chance of being upgraded by 5 AM if not by 11AM at the latest if deep convection continues near LLC, a couple of more hours and the first vis sat pic should come in.

I usually charge for my services, j/k

You're hired! Let's see, we now need someone to cover nights (7pm-6am) Friday through Sunday. Can I count you in?

My pleasure!

Oh shoot! I forgot to check with my wife, get back to you.

Not that I am doing that already, lol.


But getting back to TD2, like I had said earlier, any kind of latitude gain past the CV islands, it will close if not get into mid 70s SST, which could weaken it enough for it to miss the trough to its NW, so we can not throw out the Euro and UKMET's solutions, they could be a good possiblity, but since GFS was right about this system developing well before many others, I have to give some kind of trust to its forecasted track.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Hmm it does look like its well wrapped up, IMO this could be a TS already or at least close looking at that, low SST's as well are coming which is helping to keep the convection fairly shallow as well.

Looks like outer band may effect Cape Verde islands.

[Vortex]

Folks, take a snapshot. Tropical storm Bertha forming south of the cape verde islands on YES July 3rd.

[Emmett_Brown]

Sure isnt moving very fast... not sure if it is just me, but seems to be drifting a bit more northerly. Perhaps TS warnings later for the Cape Verdes?

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST THU JUL 3 2008

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...CIRCULATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
STORM TODAY. ALL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS WILL
BE INDUCED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 30N AND
50W...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WV IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AS THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THIS WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MATERIALIZING.

[Fego]

Good chance of being upgraded by 5 AM if not by 11AM at the latest if deep convection continues near LLC, a couple of more hours and the first vis sat pic should come in.

Good morning. Help here, since the NHC publish a TWO and TWD at 2 and 8 (am/pm) every day, why the upgrade to td02 was issued at 5:00 am?

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 JUL 2008 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 12:46:44 N Lon : 23:17:53 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -44.7C Cloud Region Temp : -43.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************