TC Bertha

[wxman57]

Yep, new model guidance has it as Bertha. Should be official in an hour.

[Frank2]

TD2/Bertha about to enter that large strato-cu field to the WNW:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

[MiamiensisWx]

If Bertha is declared at 11 a.m. EDT as expected, this will easily surpass Bertha '96 as the easternmost TS.

This is a record setting TC... the discussion will certainly embellish and furnish some unique facts.

[cycloneye]

If Bertha is declared at 11 a.m. EDT as expected, this will easily surpass Bertha '96 as the easternmost TS.

This is a record setting TC...

No matching:An historic event unfolding in 2008.

[brunota2003]

Cycloneye, that also says it searched 600 miles...quite a feat!!!

[JonathanBelles]

I know I should have gotten up early(er)

[jasons2k]

If Bertha is declared at 11 a.m. EDT as expected, this will easily surpass Bertha '96 as the easternmost TS.

This is a record setting TC...

Vince 2005 was further east...

And Ginger 1967 formed further east at 18.1

[RL3AO]

If Bertha is declared at 11 a.m. EDT as expected, this will easily surpass Bertha '96 as the easternmost TS.

This is a record setting TC...

Vince 2005 was further east...

And Ginger 1967 formed further east at 18.1

I think he meant for July.

[brunota2003]

If Bertha is declared at 11 a.m. EDT as expected, this will easily surpass Bertha '96 as the easternmost TS.

This is a record setting TC...

Vince 2005 was further east...

And Ginger 1967 formed further east at 18.1

In July?

[MiamiensisWx]

I think he meant for July.

Correct!

[RL3AO]

Welcome to S2K by the way.

[boca]

It's ironic that were replacing Bertha with Bertha for the eastern most forming storm.

[tolakram]

Odds are the thunderstorms will weaken

You can read that, right? I agree that's what the odds said. He did not say it would dissipate, he said odds (which includes climatology) are it would.

[Category 5]

It's ironic that were replacing Bertha with Bertha for the eastern most forming storm.

Lets hope we have a different result.

Sheer looks favorable for this system over the next few days at least. The heat content isn't great, but the NHC's forecast seems reasonable.

I wouldn't rule out this flirting with Hurricane intensity but it doesn't look like a high probability at this time.

[boca]

It's ironic that were replacing Bertha with Bertha for the eastern most forming storm.

Lets hope we have a different result.

Sheer looks favorable for this system over the next few days at least. The heat content isn't great, but the NHC's forecast seems reasonable.

I wouldn't rule out this flirting with Hurricane intensity but it doesn't look like a high probability at this time.

The difference with this storm which you already know is that the 2008 Bertha is forecast to turn more northerly in the mid Atlantic unlike Bertha of 96 which hit NC.

[Aric Dunn]

It's ironic that were replacing Bertha with Bertha for the eastern most forming storm.

thats what i said the other day .. lol

[Aric Dunn]

omit 17 18 and 19
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[MGC]

Well, I guess that convective burst continued all night. And yes, it is a depression today. Actually I'm impressed at the convective organization 02 has acquired. 02 looks quite organized and has a decent shot at becoming a TS later today. Gotta hand it to the GFS for nailing this so far out. I'll check back later, gotta go to the dr to get my broken ankle looked at one last time......MGC

[Category 5]

It's ironic that were replacing Bertha with Bertha for the eastern most forming storm.

Lets hope we have a different result.

Sheer looks favorable for this system over the next few days at least. The heat content isn't great, but the NHC's forecast seems reasonable.

I wouldn't rule out this flirting with Hurricane intensity but it doesn't look like a high probability at this time.

The difference with this storm which you already know is that the 2008 Bertha is forecast to turn more northerly in the mid Atlantic unlike Bertha of 96 which hit NC.

exactly and in order for it to get across it would have to go through this.

[RL3AO]

02 looks quite organized and has a decent shot at becoming a TS later today.

It will be a TS here at the 15z advisory.