TC Bertha

[brunota2003]

I think they hold at 45 knots, mainly due to the lack of really deep convection (i.e., only two blips of red on the floater).

[Blown Away]

It will be interesting to observe the movement of the cone at 5 p.m. EDT. The ongoing rapid movement of the LLC just N of due west may spawn the impetus for a slight west adjustment.

I'm anxiously awaiting also. It's hard to believe the model guidance at its current position which all show a WNW movement when Bertha has been racing almost due W now for at least 12 hours. A speed of 21mph is awfully fast for a tropical system.

Got to think they go w/ the models rate now and I anticipate a slight R adjustment to the cone/track.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the latest wave does form into something, it might try to impart a leftward component to Bertha's track from what it might otherwise follow. Maybe not an huge component, but a coiuple of degrees further South or West in 5 days could make a difference in how things play out.


Or maybe not.

[deltadog03]

Either way they move it left or right at the end...I think they said it best earlier when they mentioned that it was moving due west for some time now and models were really not showing that.

[storms in NC]

I have never wished for a hurricane to come here. But I do with this one. But with that said now I know it will not happen. Cause I wish and PRAY that is does bring us rain so much needed here. I guess I should have keep my mouth shut. Sorry every one here in NC I may have caused it to not come our way

It is so hard to say right now. If all thoes highs are out there stay it will not cuver and go out to sea. This being a Fl storm I really don't think so. It is to high up in alatude to do so. But it could do a loop and then go in to fl.

[MiamiensisWx]

18Z models' initialization indicate Bertha is indeed moving west (275 degrees) near ~22 mph.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 34.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't feel bad.

Unless you have a really special connection with God, hoping a storm hits/misses your hometown will have absolutely no affect on its ultimate path.

[Blown Away]

All I can say is the 5 day cone should include portions of the SE Bahamas, the SFL media is going to bonkers at 5pm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[gatorcane]

All I can say is the 5 day cone should include portions of the SE Bahamas, the local media is going to bonkers at 5pm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Well given the rightward biased of the models from the get-go with Bertha --- and the fact the Ukmet is pretty far left toward the SE Bahamas and (just barely north of Puerto Rico) and given the west movement at 22mph, I would not be surprised to see a slight west adjustment at least in the less than 3 day range.

So I wonder if the NE Leewards will also be in the cone? I think its possible the SE Bahamas may get just barely squeeze in the cone.

[ROCK]

Don't feel bad.

Unless you have a really special connection with God, hoping a storm hits/misses your hometown will have absolutely no affect on its ultimate path.

Don't think God needs to be brought up in the conversation, Ed.....JMO....

[ROCK]

All I can say is the 5 day cone should include portions of the SE Bahamas, the SFL media is going to bonkers at 5pm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I would agree with this statement. Thank goodness they are not allowing deep sea oil drilling off of FL. We would be looking at $10 a gallon gas with all of the speculation.

[SouthFloridawx]

Let's just remember, the shift of the models and subsequently the track of Bertha can also change back to the north and east as it has changed to the west. Learning over the past few years, I have learned that Long Range forecasts for the upper levels aren't the best to go by. If this is a continued pattern over the next 3 days, then I would start to worry as Bertha moves closer to the Islands.

I am interested to see the track on days 4 and 5, but as many have said here... They would like to see them get rid of them, because of their inaccuracy.

[Blown Away]

All I can say is the 5 day cone should include portions of the SE Bahamas, the local media is going to bonkers at 5pm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Well given the rightward biased of the models from the get-go with Bertha --- and the fact the Ukmet is pretty far left toward the SE Bahamas and (just barely north of Puerto Rico) and given the west movement at 22mph, I would not be surprised to see a slight west adjustment at least in the less than 3 day range.

So I wonder if the NE Leewards will also be in the cone? I think its possible the SE Bahamas may get just barely squeeze in the cone.

Why do you think there will be a West/left adjustment to the NHC track? The models, except for the Ukmet, have shifted right.

[gatorcane]

All I can say is the 5 day cone should include portions of the SE Bahamas, the local media is going to bonkers at 5pm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Well given the rightward biased of the models from the get-go with Bertha --- and the fact the Ukmet is pretty far left toward the SE Bahamas and (just barely north of Puerto Rico) and given the west movement at 22mph, I would not be surprised to see a slight west adjustment at least in the less than 3 day range.

So I wonder if the NE Leewards will also be in the cone? I think its possible the SE Bahamas may get just barely squeeze in the cone.

Why do you think there will be a West/left adjustment to the NHC track? The models, except for the Ukmet, have shifted right.

So in the short-term I think a slight west adjustment. Beyond 3 days up to 5 days, I would not be surprised if the cone is bent slightly to the right given the rightward shift of some of the globals. The NHC may not want to bite on the shift yet in the long-term given how the globals have been very wrong up to this point on the right turn. But overall I don't expect too many surprises this time...a cone that looks about the same as what we have now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Let's just remember, the shift of the models and subsequently the track of Bertha can also change back to the north and east as it has changed to the west. Learning over the past few years, I have learned that Long Range forecasts for the upper levels aren't the best to go by. If this is a continued pattern over the next 3 days, then I would start to worry as Bertha moves closer to the Islands.

I am interested to see the track on days 4 and 5, but as many have said here... They would like to see them get rid of them, because of their inaccuracy.

That's correct, but I wasn't relying solely on the model guidance to formulate my argument for a slight west shift of the five day cone, especially within the short to medium term. The fact is that Bertha has exhibited a faster west bias within the short term, and it has also been weaker than originally progged for this time frame. However, I do concur that long range forecasts are very uncertain and complex, and it is always recommended to realize that tropical cyclones' eventual paths can even shift outside the cone.

Regardless, I also agree that the probabilities of a FL strike are very remote, and the chances of a hit further north are still small as a whole.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't feel bad.

Unless you have a really special connection with God, hoping a storm hits/misses your hometown will have absolutely no affect on its ultimate path.

Don't think God needs to be brought up in the conversation, Ed.....JMO....

That was a joke...

[Category 5]

Don't feel bad.

Unless you have a really special connection with God, hoping a storm hits/misses your hometown will have absolutely no affect on its ultimate path.

None of us can talk to the steering patterns so all we can do is be ready.

[pavelbure224]

If the cone does touch the SE Bahamas. We are going to see the SE Fl Media go on hourly updates on Bertha.

[Blown Away]

If the cone does touch the SE Bahamas. We are going to see the SE Fl Media go on hourly updates on Bertha.

If they start hourly updates when Bertha is >2400 miles away, they should be taken off the air. It wouldn't totally surprise me if the start hourly updates now.

[Duddy]

There is nothing to worry about.

The iPhone 3G launches Friday, and the glorious leader Steve Jobs will not allow a storm to prevent people from getting one.

He will shoot his "Boom" ray from space and destroy the storm.