TC Bertha

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HURAKAN
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#1961 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:35 pm

HurricaneHunter914, LLC and MLC are not co-located.
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Re:

#1962 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:41 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:This may be a dumb question, but what does "tilted" mean?

It means, one level of a storm is titled away from another. Like the lower level part being southwest of the mid and upper levels, which are northeast of the center.

Like a right triangle, with one edge sticking southwestward(lets say that point is lined up like that), with each level becoming more and more northeastward. This is caused by shear.
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#1963 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:45 pm

Yeah its just the shear that was on the system that has tilted the system. Once it eases it will get better stacked and probably strengthen more rapidly if other conditions are condusive.
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#1964 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:55 pm

Image

Probably last visible image for today.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1965 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:57 pm

Some nice convection starting to fire up on Bertha's west side. Looks like she is on her way to cane. Still looks to be on a mostly west heading to me. Still thinking she will go a bit east of the current NHC track....MGC
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#1966 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:58 pm

Yep also the eye has been clouded over by deep convection, very impressive looking storm and I wonder what shape Bertha will be in tomorrow morning
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#1967 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:02 pm

The southern part of the storm is also improving:

1615:

Image

2045:

Image
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#1968 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:03 pm

Yep Hurakan, it certainly does look better now then it did back then, I also agree the southern side has improved I guess because recently the shear has eased off a little bit recently.
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha in Central Atlantic

#1969 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:04 pm

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 2.5900
Total  2.9575


Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

ACE crossing 3 tonight!
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#1970 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:05 pm

intensity is such a taboo thing..
maybe everyone will be reminded about how fast system can deepen. especially with well organized systems and the right conditions...
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#1971 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:intensity is such a taboo thing..
maybe everyone will be reminded about how fast system can deepen. especially with well organized systems and the right conditions...


What's taboo about intensity?
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Re: Re:

#1972 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:12 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:intensity is such a taboo thing..
maybe everyone will be reminded about how fast system can deepen. especially with well organized systems and the right conditions...


What's taboo about intensity?

intensity forecast.. and even how fast a system can strengthen .. we really dont completely understand it.
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Re: Re:

#1973 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:intensity is such a taboo thing..
maybe everyone will be reminded about how fast system can deepen. especially with well organized systems and the right conditions...


What's taboo about intensity?

intensity forecast.. and even how fast a system can strengthen .. we really dont completely understand it.


Hence the reason of Bill Reads focus on this subject.....
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#1974 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:16 pm

Sorry to be off-topic but I didn't know this and found it interesting to share:

"The formation of Arthur also marks the first time that a named storm formed in the Atlantic in May for two consecutive years."

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... %282008%29
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#1975 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:18 pm

Yep Hurakan by the time Bertha is done we will be well ahead of where we should be on average.
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#1976 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:18 pm

No more visibles!
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#1977 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:20 pm

Image
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Re:

#1978 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:20 pm

fact789 wrote:No more visibles!

thats ok the eye feature will clear out a little more on ir throughout the evening as the convection wraps around deepens more.. .. so tracking motion should be easier not..
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#1979 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:22 pm

You'd think so Aric, I hope this doesn't do like a Boris and just tease us with an eye formation every 12hrs or so then it goes away for a little while. Saying that they are two different storms, this one is heading towards warmer waters and that headed towards colder.
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#1980 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:24 pm

Strong CDO, partial eye - I'd say 60 kt right now.
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