TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

Impressive.

[RL3AO]

Thats 2 1/2 hours ago too.

[HURAKAN]

Thats 2 1/2 hours ago too.

I know but it's still impressive!!

[KWT]

Thats got to be getting close to hurricane status, I know its not quite there yet as the eye keeps appearing then going on Vis but its got to be between 55-60kts now I'd have thought?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 2.5900
Total  2.9575


Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

ACE crossing 3 tonight!

2.59 ace is a very very small amount of ace for a long tracker like bertha. But I expect as it strengthens that will go up fast. Maybe 9-10 ace by the time Bertha has ran its coarse.

[KWT]

Well the 1996 version of Bertha Matt got upto around 17. The thjing is bertha has held at 45kts for quite a while and so that doesn't really add all that much really compared to say a 70-80kt minimal hurricane would.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 2.5900
Total  2.9575


Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

ACE crossing 3 tonight!

Unfortunately, those numbers are the operational track and not the best track--which gives a better "official" estimate of the real ACE. The BT ACE figures currently have Bertha at 2.84. If the 06Z intensity is 40KT (which it will be at least 50KT), the total will be exactly 3.0.

[HURAKAN]

My member name is the keyword!!!

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if the NHC will judge based on that? Although if they are confident it is at least 65 kt, they will likely go with a special advisory. My guess right now is 60 kt.

[senorpepr]

I'm still not willing to jump up and say hurricane yet. Even the microwave imagery needs a little more work. Looking at the latest numbers that I'm coming up with is around T3 to T3.5. I see CIMSS has T3.3 (~51KT). I'd probably go out and lean toward 55KT at this time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My member name is the keyword!!!

I agree, its very very close.

[Aric Dunn]

if trends continue by 11pm they should be either 70mph or a hurricane ..

[KWT]

I think what the NHC does next advisory will be alot dependant on if the eye pops out in a big way or not on IR in the next few hours. If not then I think the NHC will go with 55kts but if it does come out then they may end up raising it to 60kts. We will have to wait but its getting closer and closer to being a hurricane right now.

Shame we haven't got recon in there now I'd bet it would come out with some real interesting stuff.

[Derek Ortt]

still looking like a 3.0+ on the IR

maybe by this evening it wil be a 3.5

[KWT]

On IR it doesn't look as impressive but its clearly only not far away given the microwave presentation right now. I'm waiting to see the IR improve tonight before callinmg for anything above 55kts for the next advisory. So you still think its at 50kts Derek?

[Derek Ortt]

based upon IR 50KT is about all once can argue for

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

18.4/47.4 moving just north of due west.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on the structure and the appearance of a banding structure (banding type eye) on IR, 55 kt is not a poor intensity estimate. The wind radii is not very large in aereal extent, and with the gradient to the north, it's quite possible that the winds are slightly higher than 50 kt. However, 60 kt or greater seems far too high. Regardless, it is quite plausible that Bertha may approach or reach hurricane intensity late tonight, though the early morning hours tomorrow present better chances for hurricane classification.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

Last night:


Now:


Much more organized.

[KWT]

Fair enough Derek may they take the good microwave presentation and go a little higher?
I have to admit it doesn't look anything more then a steadily developing mid-high range TS on IR I have to admit, eastern side needs to improve first IMO.