TC Bertha

[cpdaman]

southern half appears to be taking some shear

is there any of that deadly mid-level shear on the horizon?

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Mid-level shear seems pretty light, there is a spot of about ~15 kt though but mostly under 10 kt.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[HurricaneQueen]

This may or may not be the proper place to post this but I just want to thank everyone for being so level-headed and informative in this thread. I have learned (or relearned) so much in the last few days thanks to everyone who has taken the time to discuss their thoughts in a rational manner. What a terrific bunch of people!!!

S2K rocks!

Lynn

[srainhoutx]

TUTT to the west. A lot of dry air moving in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[MGC]

Based on the image above, I'd speculate that Bertha just took a big gulp of dry air, hence the lack of convection on her SE side. Also looks like a bit of SW shear also. All in all a rather impressive TC....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

I think the dry air has ended the RI phase we saw today

also, if there is 15KT of mid level shear... good night hurricane. Far less than that did Chris in (Chris had about 10KT of mid level shear... same with Ernesto before striking Haiti)

[Chacor]

Warming cloud tops and eye seems to be moving to the southern edge of convection. Could be under some new shear?

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it will weaken back to yesterday's levels by tomorrow. It will have another opportunity to strength north of 32°N where shear is minimal.

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't look to be shear... probably a case of dry air with no shear. That tends to cause the TC to remain steady but not weaken

now... shear should increase in 1-2 days... but then we have have baroclinic effects to offset that

[Sanibel]

A look at the visible loop shows why it did this rebound. There's a perfect overhead outflow above.

By the way, the 'fist' call was right. My apology.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 070908

Hurricane Bertha Redevelops today, further intensification possible.



Central Atlantic....Category 2 Hurricane Bertha. Hurricane Bertha's roller coaster is on its way back up. Structure has improved again and an eye has reappeared. The eye has seemed to clear, and become symmetrical, and larger. Thus she has reintensified today back to about 110mph (my estimate). I expect a brief improvement back to category 3 in the next day before shear takes control of Bertha. OHC's are falling, and SST's will rise, but because of the level of shear, the SST's effects will be lessened.

Track will be generally to the NW, but after the generality the track is quite difficult. It will eventually turn to the north and north east, but when is still to be seen. Change in direction may be seen soon as Saturday. This hurricane is known to wobble from time to time and could possibly do it again.

Bermuda is once again in the cone of possibility at the NHC. I think the people of Bermuda should be watching this system. At this point I would say there is a 50% chance of tropical storm force winds in Bermuda. I would recommend no less than a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning by 11pm Thursday for Tropical Storm force winds. Depending on wobbles and track changes a Hurricane Watch may be needed. Waves should begin building on the East Coast of Bermuda of up to 10 feet with rising waves on the East Coast of the US as Bertha makes her pass.

Atlantic Canada and Maine may also want to start watching Bertha.

Fact789-Jonathan

**Any and all comments, positive or negative, are welcomed**
**Any help on creating better graphics would be appreciated**

edit: forgot the disclaimer

[Derek Ortt]

a TS warning tomorrow?

Absolutely not... far too early and would be an over warning.

The earliest based upon the expected slowdown that a hurricane watch would be needed appears to be Friday morning

[JonathanBelles]

Derek: I know I am not a met. My current thinking is that Bertha will not slow down as much as forecasted. I dont mean to stir up a controversy, but I think that TS/HU watches and warnings should be issued earlier than they already are by 12 hours+. I know the definitions of each.

[Derek Ortt]

earlier... you would have far more false alarms... which leads to the "Keys Culture"

[cycloneye]

No changes from ATCF,90 kts,970 mbs:

AL, 02, 2008071000, , BEST, 0, 252N, 586W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15,

[SeaBrz_FL]

Nice job, Jonathan (fact789). I really enjoy reading your posts, and 11 PM Thursday night is pretty close to "Friday morning".

[Weatherfreak14]

earlier... you would have far more false alarms... which leads to the "Keys Culture"

I can understand that, but still you want an earlier warning as in case this storm moves in the island direction, really this is a island out in the middle of no where they need all the warning they can get, even though that it may miss....

But on the other side, i have to agree with you on this cause we dont want a false panic.

[JonathanBelles]

earlier... you would have far more false alarms... which leads to the "Keys Culture"

As todays people becomes more prepared, smarter and aware of their surroundings, and as the NHC becomes better at forecasting, I think that more people will understand the possibility of being a little off, and the NHC should allow for more warning. JMO.

[HURAKAN]