TC Bertha

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KWT
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#3541 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 10, 2008 5:19 pm

Well up they go again cycloneye, looks like we are seeing Bertha strengthen yet again, hopefully it decides to do steady strengthening so its primed for recon tomorrow.
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weatherguru18

Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3542 Postby weatherguru18 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 5:43 pm

Bertha appears to be taking on more annular characteristics. Anybody else think so?
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#3543 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 10, 2008 5:48 pm

I don't think its quite there yet but it does seem like its starting to at least take on some similar aspects though I think waters are too warm for that still.
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#3544 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:01 pm

By the way, what is the record for longest-lasting "B" storm in the Atlantic?
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#3545 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:04 pm

I have a feeling that this is going to be one of those cases where you think a ERC is obviously happening (classic moat) but instead the inner core wards off the cycle and just cancels it :lol: . I have seen that happen before.
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#3546 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:07 pm

Yeah that may well be the case, I've see recon before show these double eyewalls where the inner eyewall just won't collapse!

Hurakan, I'm not sure though I bet this may have a shot at the longest lasting July tropical cyclone in the north Atlantic. Emily tracked a long way as have a few others but this has the advantage of forming a good deal east of most of those.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3547 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:16 pm

Top 3:

BETSY 1965-08-27 18 days
BEULAH 1967-09-05 18 days
BONNIE 1992-09-17 16 days

Link: http://www.hurricaneville.com/longest_lasting.php
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3548 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:19 pm

Image

Image
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#3549 Postby Cryomaniac » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:24 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I dont know, im not a pro. But it looks like Bertha may be undergoing a transition to being an annular hurricane.


I thought that earlier, but didn't post it, partly because people tend to get angsty about anyone mentioning annular hurricanes.

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:Could Bertha become a problem for the US after all?


The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not backed by any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose.

I seriously doubt it. I refuse to say it's impossible, because it isn't.
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#3550 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:28 pm

Image

Last VIS 'til tomorrow.
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#3551 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:29 pm

Interesting.. its starting to look a little like Isabel(though not nearly as impressive)
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3552 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:42 pm

The divergence from the upper low is providing excellent ascent and outflow along the western semicircle.

On another note, the outer (secondary) eyewall is steadily contracting, while a larger eye develops simultaneously and shrinks as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
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#3553 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:50 pm

Image

Finally some company!!!
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#3554 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:56 pm

Interestingly Hurakan that may well take a very similar to Alice, maybe a touch further east but also note it stayed as a hurricane till 40N.

Miami, yep you can also see it really wobble its way NW, thats stair-steeping if I ever see one!
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3555 Postby cpdaman » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:20 pm

looks ok but last image shows holes in convection

you gotta think about upwelling over the next couple days (should model speed verify) this would inhibit her abit...ya

also appears northward motion may have taken a breather (but would need a few more images to confirm)
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3556 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:ACE for Bertha continues to go up,now 13.915,the season in total is at 14.3:

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 13.915
Total  14.2825


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlan ... ane_season


That's, again, wrong. Operationally it's 13.5475; best-track is 13.4125. Not 13.915.
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#3557 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:46 pm

Image

My calculations confirm Chacor's. Wikipedia's calculations are slightly wrong.
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#3558 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:49 pm

Nice table, HURAKAN.
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ekal
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3559 Postby ekal » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:58 pm

Bertha is nearly seeing double this evening.

Image
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3560 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:02 pm

No change from ATCF:

75 kts,980 mbs

AL, 02, 2008071100, , BEST, 0, 274N, 610W, 75, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15, 1014, 200, 15, 0, 0,
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