ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Very interesting that is some convergence indeed and is probably why some convection has been bursting recently closer to the center. Shear right now makes development marginal still but chances IMO have increased now.

shear obviously present in the Caribbean but right now below 15N it isn't too severe so if it can keep a more southerly track it may not hammer blow it quite as hard as progged and besides there looks like there is some shear on it anyway even now.

[Ivanhater]

This thing aint done!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Finally! It needed convergence and there it is. And after watching for awhile, I'll admit, it does seem to be getting better organized. Still, development will be slow with marginally favorable conditions.

[weatherguru18]

I never once counted it out. I used to jump on and off the train of development. Now I just sit idol and enjoy the ride. It's a lot less tiring and much less stressful for me.

[jhamps10]

I walked away from this thing this morning, thinking surely it's a goner. in fact deleated it from my brain, so I'm looking at it from a new fresh perspective, and while it is not screaming out at me, look at this I'm about to explode with development it looks interesting, and given the more hostile enviroment around it and how it's developing slowly makes me concerned about what august and sep will bring. If it's doing this in July, and with that wave out east of this, even though it looks as of now to not going to produce anything attm it sure looks like to me we are on the cusp of another active hurricane season. Hopefully the GOM gets spared like it did in 2005 but I am concerned about this should it going. Hopefully the shear kills this thing to death, but it is a nice learning experience to see how waves and lows near the ITCZ even in perfect conditions just won't develop cause of the ITCZ.

[KWT]

Well the models do prog higher shear in the Caribbean but for now there is a little region probably south of 15N where shear probably be amazingly high, probably enough to still cause problems but we will see.

It does seem to be a little more organised and if recon finds a closed LLC then it probably will get an upgrade, I highly doubt the NHC will do anything before recon though.

[Ivanhater]

Anyone know if JB is still thinking this will develop?

[cycloneye]

It is a nice learning experience to see how waves and lows near the ITCZ even in perfect conditions just won't develop cause of the ITCZ

Yes,especially for the newbies its good to have these systems to look how they do day by day fighting against the ITCZ in different phases as this system has done in the past few days.

[stormchazer]

Shear forecast are often less then accurate as time goes out so we shall see. 94L has been persistant so if it finally develops, it might pose some problems for folks in the islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone know if JB is still thinking this will develop?

According to this mornings videos, he said he thought it still had a chance. Development should be slower than he initially believed, but he still highlighted this as one of his main areas of concern. Since this mornings videos, there have been no new updates.

[gatorcane]

convection on the Southern side of the low pressure center continue to develop -- another sign of organization:

[KWT]

I'd be interested in the pro mets point of veiw right now about its development chances. I'd have thought the chances have gone up but its still clearly trying to develop and its still got a little bit to go. Still the Dvorak numbers now at 2.0 and it does look good enough to be a TD now IMO. Still the key is what state is the center in?

[Sanibel]

Don't get too up on this one. Most systems this weak end up dying once they hit the islands.

[Ivanhater]

Anyone know if JB is still thinking this will develop?

According to this mornings videos, he said he thought it still had a chance. Development should be slower than he initially believed, but he still highlighted this as one of his main areas of concern. Since this mornings videos, there have been no new updates.

Thanks EWG...like I said if I saw this for the first time, I would be highly interested...

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57, who has a pretty stout track record, has already said this is done. One last death rattle before it expires, probably.

[weatherguru18]

WxMan57, who has a pretty stout track record, has already said this is done. One last death rattle before it expires, probably.

Take it for what it's worth:

"It's not the things we don't know that hurt us. But rather the things we know for certain that are true, that just ain't so." - Mark Twain.

[Ivanhater]

WxMan57, who has a pretty stout track record, has already said this is done. One last death rattle before it expires, probably.

He also said this would probably develop..maybe even a hurricane before the Islands...no fault to him but these things are highly unpredictable, especially when they are just forming...

[KWT]

That may well be the case Sanibel the forecast is for shear to increase in the Caribbean but we will have to wait and see what happens, I think there may be a little region where the shear is lower below 15N in the eastern Caribbean anyway but we will see, still a few days away yet.

[alienstorm]

While structurly it has become better, there is still the lack of convention development. If you notice we had a nice little fare-up (or beginning of one) near the estimated center. However, in the last hour it has dissipated and is no longer happening. It lloks like this is either going to wait until the western carribbean to develop or just slam into Central america.

However, it does show that we are going to have an active Cape Verde season, we have another wave approx 700 ESE of this one and a monster wave that should exit Africa sometime in the next 24 - 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

The circulation is pretty evident.