Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

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RL3AO
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#181 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:07 pm

Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#182 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:09 pm

No idea if it is near the surface yet, but Tampa radar suggests some kind of circulation SW of Tampa.


That convection stays up all night, I'd guess 95L in the morning, and maybe even an as available recon tasking for tomorrow afternoon.
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#183 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:10 pm

RL3AO wrote:Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

Image



And something really impressive about a thousand miles East of Delaware!
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Re:

#184 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:10 pm

RL3AO wrote:Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

Image


This image is 3+ hours old (0:04 UTC = 8:04 EDT). The circulation now appears to be centered SW of the state, instead of over it.

Latest surface wind directions: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#185 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:11 pm

Several Vectors-
Dark Orange- 30 mph
1 purple vector- 45 mph
1 brown vector- 40 mph
Black vectors- are those 40+ indications?
Anyway, that is a lot of black vectors- if those are
indicative and not contaminated....
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Re: Re:

#186 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:12 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Quikscat shows a circulation over Florida.

Image



And something really impressive about a thousand miles East of Delaware!


At least it doesn't show Bertha with an open low again.
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Re:

#187 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:12 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Several Vectors-
Dark Orange- 30 mph
1 purple vector- 45 mph
1 brown vector- 40 mph
Black vectors- are those 40+ indications?
Anyway, that is a lot of black vectors- if those are
indicative and not contaminated....


Black is rain contaminated. You throw those out.
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#188 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:13 pm

thanks!!
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#189 Postby DAVE440 » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:24 pm

Channel 6 Local met just addressed this. He said its just an upper level circulation thats going to bring us some rain. Also a tropical wave moving to the west (currently in the carribean) will pass to our south and may increase rain chance a bit in a few days.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#190 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:27 pm

Channel 8 local in Tampa said it is both an upper low and a surface low that developed and is trying to get its act together.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#191 Postby ekal » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:30 pm

Are we confident this system won't move onshore in the next 12 hours? It is awfully close to the coast, and there is a southwest steering flow present across the state.
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#192 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:34 pm

It is supposed to move very little- weak steering currents- so it will
have time to develop before a ridge begans pushing it North by late
week into the Panhandle...I think.
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#193 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:37 pm

WFTV Ch. 7 Tom Terry said that slow development was possible from this.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#194 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:40 pm

Ekal,

The system has been moving SW today, but the "bands" have been rotating around and coming across the state from the SW to the NE. The storms in the Tampa area were moving SW earlier in the day, but then started to head more Westerly as teh system as a whole started to meander away from the coast. A solid circulation has not yet been established on its east/northeast/north side, but it appears to be getting better organized by the minute.

As the high pressure ridge begins to advance to teh west from teh Atlantic, it will nudge this system further into the gulf. I still question whether the ridge will eb "shaped" properly to nudge it to the west and then northwest, or potentially send it further SW, then west, then have it stall in the gulf for a little while before heading the the N and NE again when the ridge begins to retreat once again. Strongest confidence is in the scenario of it heading further west and then up into the northern gulf states.

*see disclaimer about me not being a pro and not worth listening to* see the NHC for the story to trust.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#195 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:41 pm

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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#196 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:41 pm

<---- sorry, I'm THE typo queen :(
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#197 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:43 pm

bed time. Be interesting to see if this still looks good in the morning.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#198 Postby ekal » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:47 pm

Thank you for that response, TIFG. It will be interesting to see how quickly the ridge steers it to the west.

And I actually did not notice the typos, after nine innings of staring at baseball. :lol:
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#199 Postby Duddy » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:56 pm

Wouldn't it be cool for us to wake up in the morning next to Cristobal?
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#200 Postby Jason_B » Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:57 pm

Duddy wrote:Wouldn't it be cool for us to wake up in the morning next to Cristobal?
Eh...not really. I kinda want to get gas sometime this week without having to wait in a 2 mile long line.
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