ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Another inhibiter is the fact that 94L doesn't have the same warm moist southern inflow it did before because of its proximity to South America.

[txag2005]

Hopefully this thing fizzles out as we are flying out to Cancun tomorrow! We're still a little concerned but feeling better this morning.

[cheezyWXguy]

well the only thing I can see going for it is a low level circulation, clearly seen on visible imagery. But shear is just too strong now, and I dont know if it will ever get favorable enough for this to develop. I think were gonna have to wait at least another week before something gets another decent chance to develop.

[HURAKAN]

I know most people have already given up on 94L but this system still has a discernable circulation and convection continues to be generated, althought it's not organized. I think we need to continue to keep an eye on it for development, especially as it moves away from SA. The continent could be impacting its inflow.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[Thunder44]

If recon finds a well-defined surface center, it can be upgraded to a TD this afternoon. Thunderstorm organization is not that important.

[Brent]

Recon is still going out??? It looks horrible.

[NONAME]

Recon is still going out??? It looks horrible.

I think they canceled today's but there is on for tomorrow.

[zaqxsw75050]

Recon isn't cancel today.

[Lifesgud2]

next invest please...fizzle fizzle

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon isn't cancel today.

I wouldn't be so sure. Besides being rather poorly organized, Marxist thug Hugo Chavez has denied permission to the WC-130Js to enter Venezuelan air space in recent years, and closing off a circulation would require flying close to Venezuela.

[Lowpressure]

Unfortunately this looks like it may be another round of flooding/mudslide for Nic/Hond.

[zaqxsw75050]

Recon isn't cancel today.

I wouldn't be so sure. Besides being rather poorly organized, Marxist thug Hugo Chavez has denied permission to the WC-130Js to enter Venezuelan air space in recent years, and closing off a circulation would require flying close to Venezuela.

well... at least not yet.... just wait and see for now.

[Thunder44]

They didn't make any remarks about this afternoon's mission in TPOD. So I'm assuming it's a go.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately this looks like it may be another round of flooding/mudslide for Nic/Hond.

If we are to believe the GFS 12z run from today ... 94L will eventually slide into the western Caribbean, over the Yucatan Peninsula, and then northwest with eventual landfall near Brownsville ... spreading significant rains into south Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[senorpepr]

I've added a zoomed-in map over the Leeward and Windward Islands displaying surface observations.

The aforementioned image is adjusted as the disturbance has moved westward.

[Cyclone1]

It honestly doesn't look bad, but you have to look at a loop to see the rotation. Still images leave the circulation indiscernible thanks to disorganized convection.

[HURAKAN]

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists are monitoring a pair of tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea for potential development.

A wave in the western Caribbean has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical depression before moving over Central America later today. The wave will bring heavy rain to Nicaragua and Honduras as it moves across Central America through Saturday. The rain could spark life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the higher terrain.

The second wave is located in the southeastern Caribbean, close to the coast of South America. The close proximity to land and a forward speed of 20 to 25 mph is inhibiting the potential of the wave becoming a tropical depression.

However, the potential for development could increase on Friday as the wave curves to the northwest, into warmer waters of the central Caribbean.

According to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, the wave could become a hurricane sometime over the weekend before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula late in the weekend or Monday.

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... ccuweather

[txag2005]

Any idea how strong of a hurricane accuweather is predicting if it hits Mexico?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm an AccuWx PPV subscriber, but I think they're high, basically, in forecasting a 'Hurricane Cristobal' in 3 days form the mess that is 94L. With all due respect, of course.