ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Chigger_Lopez]

I was just listening to CNBC and they were talking about Oil comodities and mentioned that people shorting the comodities could get blasted b/c there is a system in the carribean now and the models all shifted north putting it into the GOM. That was surprising they are mentioning that already, like it was a certainty or something.

[LaBreeze]

Just wondering - "if" this were to develop any at all, and "if" it were to threaten any part of the U.S., how soon in advance would watches or warnings be issued?

[RL3AO]

Just wondering - "if" this were to develop any at all, and "if" it were to threaten any part of the U.S., how soon in advance would watches or warnings be issued?

When its 36-48 hours away from land.

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont know how old this is, but it looks like a new tcfa has been issued on 94l

[KWT]

The thing is despite looking messy there is still convection flaring up and we do also still have a broad circulation and so if it does find favorable conditions its still got a fair chance of developing IMO if it can keep under them for a little while.

[HURAKAN]

[DanKellFla]

Looks like land ho pretty soon and the mountains will eat it up. I guess we will know by tommorow morning.

[KWT]

IMO the center should stay offshore however and the westerly movement is just a guide, its current movement is more like 280 so it shouldn't come ashore and besides there isn't much really to disrupt right now!

[RattleMan]

That's the fourth TCFA!

#1: http://www.webcitation.org/5ZK67v5VQ
#2: http://www.webcitation.org/5ZK6GMLLi
#3: http://www.webcitation.org/5ZMTpZxNQ

[KWT]

RattleMan, indeed that just shows how constantly close this system has been to becoming a tropical cyclone, almost but not quite there constantly on the cusp of becoming a tropical cyclone just lacking one main center recently.

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday 2215Z:



Today 2215Z:

[KWT]

Hmmm maybe a little more convection Hurakan but pretty much the exact same presentation as yesterday probably thanks to the shear levels its under right now.

[Innotech]

I think thats the truly frightning part. after 24 hours of strong shear and it is still close to a tropical cyclone. Imagine this thing in a less sheared environment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm maybe a little more convection Hurakan but pretty much the exact same presentation as yesterday probably thanks to the shear levels its under right now.

The 'shape' looks a little better. A touch less sheared, I'd guess.


It probably will develop in a day or two, but I think by then it'll be too far South to feel any weakness that might pull it into anyplace in the Gulf but maybe the BOC on its way to a second Mexican landfall.


But we'll have #96L soon. I think once the sun sets on Florida and the land based storms die down a tad, the storms offshore will really fire up.

IMHO.

[senorpepr]

But we'll have #96L soon. I think once the sun sets on Florida and the land based storms die down a tad, the storms offshore will really fire up.

IMHO.

96L already exists, or did you mean 96L will strengthen once the sun sets?

[KWT]

Well we have 96L already but yeah I agree Ed ther eis slightly more curveature as well at the moment, still we will see what this looks like as dmax comes along.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WHILE CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
DURING THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATED THIS SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY AND DID NOT FIND ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 71W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-69W.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

[KWT]

Pretty similar to yesterdays update after recon went through. what is interesting is the idea that conditions will become a little more favorable and therefore this does have a real chance eventually of doing something if shear can ease down enough, esp past 36hrs time IMO.